McBandit
05-26-2005, 05:04 AM
OK. Let me start by saying that this is not a "Party Poker is XXXXing Rigged" post. I have been and am a winning player at the SnGs. On one day in particular, I had a bad run of preflop all-ins. Some were bad pushes, some were bad beats. I decided to make a statistical analysis of my all-ins to perhaps learn something useful.
I decided to count only hands in which all the money went in preflop (ie. no post-flop play whatsoever, in order to negate any human/decision factor into the stats). I measured 373 CONSECUTIVE all-ins no matter how big or small the pot was. The only all-ins I omitted were when more than two players were all-in together.
Now, here is where my lack of knowledge of statistical analysis comes in. I want to know if the following steps make sense. I made an excel spreadsheet in which I had only two columns. Column one was the chance out of 100 that my hand should have won preflop (ie. a value of 57 if my QQ were up against AK, or 20 if my 66 was against KK). Column 2 was simply an "W" or an "L" to indicate the result. I then averaged all of the hand equity values (ie. 57 and 20) to determine my average hand equity. I then had the spreadsheet count the Ws and Ls to produce an actual win %age. I figure that, analagous to Independent Chip Model calculations, my average equity should approach my win percentage.
My results were as follows:
Average value of hand(equity) = 49.8 %
Win percentage = 44.2% (165-208)
Now after n=373, this is a not a small sample size.
In an earlier thread I asked the odds of being down 42 coinflips after 373 flips (I got the number 42 from the number of consecuitve coin-flips, or 50% equity hands I have to add to the spreadsheet to regress to the mean). The formula that was provided to me determined that I am over 4 SD from the mean. Is this calculation correct? Obviously 4 SD is well beyond what would be expected. So either PP is rigged or my calculations are in error (I favor the latter, but I can't see where). Is there a fundamental flaw with how I've gone about my calculations?
Thanks,
McBandit/Daddys_visa/Yogafire
I decided to count only hands in which all the money went in preflop (ie. no post-flop play whatsoever, in order to negate any human/decision factor into the stats). I measured 373 CONSECUTIVE all-ins no matter how big or small the pot was. The only all-ins I omitted were when more than two players were all-in together.
Now, here is where my lack of knowledge of statistical analysis comes in. I want to know if the following steps make sense. I made an excel spreadsheet in which I had only two columns. Column one was the chance out of 100 that my hand should have won preflop (ie. a value of 57 if my QQ were up against AK, or 20 if my 66 was against KK). Column 2 was simply an "W" or an "L" to indicate the result. I then averaged all of the hand equity values (ie. 57 and 20) to determine my average hand equity. I then had the spreadsheet count the Ws and Ls to produce an actual win %age. I figure that, analagous to Independent Chip Model calculations, my average equity should approach my win percentage.
My results were as follows:
Average value of hand(equity) = 49.8 %
Win percentage = 44.2% (165-208)
Now after n=373, this is a not a small sample size.
In an earlier thread I asked the odds of being down 42 coinflips after 373 flips (I got the number 42 from the number of consecuitve coin-flips, or 50% equity hands I have to add to the spreadsheet to regress to the mean). The formula that was provided to me determined that I am over 4 SD from the mean. Is this calculation correct? Obviously 4 SD is well beyond what would be expected. So either PP is rigged or my calculations are in error (I favor the latter, but I can't see where). Is there a fundamental flaw with how I've gone about my calculations?
Thanks,
McBandit/Daddys_visa/Yogafire