Pair on the button

[MojoRisin]

Tell me if I'm nuts here

PokerStars 1/2

I'm Button with 99

UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, I raise, BB calls, all call

Flop comes: 34A

BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, I raise, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls

Turn comes: K

UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, I check

River: T

UTG+1 bets, MP1 folds, I call..

[MrWookie47]

I think I fold the river.

[Firefly]

I'm not wild about the flop raise, but meh...it's not that bad especially buying the free river card like you did there. That said, fold the river, your pair of 9's doesn't beat much on that board. I doubt your good the 1..in about 8 your being offered here.

[MojoRisin]

Ok, thats kind of what I thought.

If river had been a blank, would you still say fold?

[HentaiGaijin]

Practice analysis. (I'm new to this so take it with salt.)

Turn: I'd bet the turn. It's possible UTG+1 has A? but his timidity to bet the turn makes me wonder. The king is unlikely to have changed his hand at all and he wouldn't be afraid of it if he had a A?. I'd fold to a raise, confirmed that he had A? and was trying to bait someone who made a pair with the king.

River: I'd fold. Some players like to bet the flop and check raise the turn if they get action. His bet on the river makes me suspect he missed such an attempt and is betting to recover...

?

[HentaiGaijin]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not wild about the flop raise, but meh...it's not that bad especially buying the free river card like you did there. That said, fold the river, your pair of 9's doesn't beat much on that board. I doubt your good the 1..in about 8 your being offered here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't buying the free card weaken the 99? Betting the turn and folding to a raise is the same price as checking through and calling the river as he did.

[Firefly]

Bet/folding the turn is also a line that works for me. It actually might be better...I check behind too much and assume too much about villans in general.

[Firefly]

ugh, a river blank i would probally call. I assume that the flop was rainbow, but without reads, generally i assume that a person who bets into the PF raiser either has a draw or a hand. I doubt anything like KJ bets the flop, while stuff like A6 does. I just think that in situations like this I
A) Want to show my hand down
B) Want to do that cheaply as possible. Checking behind on the turn and calling the river accomplishes that but i'm not sure my reasoning is right.

[HentaiGaijin]

I think you may be right, Firefly. If the difference is "check, call, and show the hand down" or "make a bet and possibly fold" the former is probably better, if the turn bet's chance of winning the pot cold is low. Now that I think about the flop play, it's very unlikely the turn bet will win the pot cold.

[MojoRisin]

Thats kind of what I thoguht when reading the analysis -- a turn bet is almost surely going to be called if not expected, isn't it?