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View Full Version : anybody have a risk of ruin equation for poker?

SCfuji
05-26-2005, 12:58 AM
something that uses st. dev, your winrate and your bankroll.

thanks (yes i tried the search function using "risk of ruin" as well as +risk +ruin)
dogmeat
05-26-2005, 01:17 AM
Well, not really. If you went by an hourly rate:

30 hands per hour
$10 average investment
1.5 big bet win per hour
SD of 16 ($240)
95% confidence level (or 5% element of ruin)


x = z.SD + mu = (1.65) (240) + 15 = 396 + 15 = $411

But of course, this assumes $300 in total bets per hour (which is not really 30x$10) but is fairly accurate for a $5/$10 game. Hey, Bruce Z - where do you go from here?

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif
BruceZ
05-26-2005, 08:12 AM
[ QUOTE ]
something that uses st. dev, your winrate and your bankroll.

thanks (yes i tried the search function using "risk of ruin" as well as +risk +ruin)

[/ QUOTE ]

Bankroll formulas (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=207100&page=&view=&sb=5&o =&fpart=all&vc=1) and Derivation of bankroll formulas (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=683150&page=0&view=ex panded&sb=5&o=14&fpart=2#Post682045683150).
Lost Wages
05-27-2005, 09:32 AM
Bruce,

Are the formulas still accurate if you use BB/100 and SD/100? Thanks.

Lost Wages
BruceZ
05-27-2005, 11:29 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Bruce,

Are the formulas still accurate if you use BB/100 and SD/100? Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can use bb/100 for the win rate if you use bb^2/100 for sigma^2. That would technically give SD units of bb/10, but I doubt the software packages report it this way. They probably give you bb/100, which actually means bb/10. If they say SD/100, that means the SD for 100 hands, which would have the correct units of bb/10. The units of sigma^2 and win rate should cancel to give bb or $.
BruceZ
05-27-2005, 11:44 AM
I think Poker Tracker has something called SD/100 which actually means showdowns per 100 hands (not standard deviation). The standard deviation is under session notes if you click "more detail". For 100 hands it should be a number around 17 bb, unless you play shorthanded or very aggressively, and then it would be higher.