Spurs/Suns game 3

[JupiterUWG]

any thoughts on this game? suns look pretty attractive at +6 to me...but maybe this is a trap? help me out

My input, for what little it's worth ...

I have been absolutely amazed at how dead on many of the numbers have been for these playoffs, including tonight's o/u. In situations like these (and only situations like these), I'll look at a teaser. I think 6 is a reasonable number for the game ... but I think 1 or 1 1/2 is fabulous for the Spurs. I absolutely cannot see Phoenix winning this game. They have not shown that they can beat a full compliment of Spurs at all. I think they make a game of it though, in desperation mode, with a close game turning to a 5-8 point win courtesy of late free throws. Meanwhile, the O/U number keeps creeping up. With the move back to San Antonio, I think the total points will be a bit lower than anticipated, which is why I think it again might be right around the number (the other games were 219 and 235). So I like the idea of knocking the 214 number down under 210. Which leads me to wagering fairly heavily on a teaser of Spurs -1 and the over 209 1/2.

Good luck and God Bless.

[JupiterUWG]

i took the same type of teaser play except with the suns at +10 and the over...prolly stupid but i think the suns come out with some good energy knowing that its all over if they dont somehow win this game

[Tha Villain]

I really like the Over.

Someone said it was 214. SA should have no trouble scoring at home, and Pho (the NBA's best road team) will have no trouble scoring away. We know Amare will get 40 and Nash 30. That puts them halfway there. Parker will match Nash's 30 and I expect Ginobili and Duncan to each contribute 20. Thats 140 right there. It's not much to ask for the rest of them to pitch in 74.

I kinda like Pho to win as well. In an interview Duncan said his ankle felt worse the less he played. I think these 3 days off will be more harm than help and he'll start very slow. On the other hand, Pho plays well with rest and it'll give Q and Marion some time to reflect and get back into it. Plus IMO Pho is too good of a team to get swept. They should steal one in SA and if they do it'll be Game 3.

Plus Joe Johnson is rumored to be back Game 3. While he isn't enough to give Pho the win it will be an emotional lift for them. Coupled with the desperation they should play good.

There will probably be GREAT odds on Pho ML, probably +180, but I'll probably be too scared to bet it and just bet the Over lol.

[llabb]

I like the same teaser. Posted my thoughts here in the Pho-SA thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2453263&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1).

Not trying to redirect this thread, I've just been wanting to keep my analysis posts for the same series in one place, so that I can go back and see what I thought about the earlier games in the series when I'm capping the current ones.

[blownheadgasket]

Not a big fan of teasing anything hoops related (especially totals) but I do like the +6 side myself. You have a letdown situation for the Spurs coming off the big two wins on the road. As mentioned by another poster - Phoenix was super solid on the road this year. Right now its hanging around 5.5/6 - I'd love for the public to boost it a bit and get over 6 (end game hoops sure can suck) but its a very solid number as it stands now.

Good luck

[homedog]

I did the Suns moneyline at +210. They had the best road record in the NBA and their season is on the line. Let me also be fair and mention that I have the Spurs for the series so this is partially a hedge bet as well. But the way I see it, if the Suns are gonna win a game it's this one.