I got punked!

[Mathemagician]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB ($92)
UTG :#A500AF(Villain)/ ($172.35)
UTG+1 ($87.95)
UTG+2 ($106.65)
MP1 ($243.12)
MP2 ($62.04)
MP3 ($101.4)
Hero ($99.5)
Button ($130.75)
SB ($108.7)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG :#A500AF(Villain)/ raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Hero calls $4, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($9.50) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villain bets $6</font>, Hero calls $6.

Turn: ($21.50) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villain bets $10</font>, Hero calls $10.

River: ($41.50) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villain bets $80</font>, Hero calls $79.50 (All-In).

Final Pot: $201

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Villain has 9s Ts (straight, queen high).
Hero has 5d 5h (three of a kind, fives).
Outcome: Villain wins $201. </font>

OK, my initial reaction was that this guy did one hell of a job representing the very common "busted flush draw river push" (my guess was with AK, AQ, or AJ suited and leaning strongly towards AQ), but the more I think about it the more I think I should have been suspicious of that half-pot-sized turn bet and the more I think I should have raised him on the flop. Am I second-guessing myself too much or did I really mess this up? Your comments and criticism are welcome.

Thanks!
M

[-Skeme-]

You absolutely need to raise somewhere. Flop is a good spot. Turn, too. You can't let your opponent dictate the tempo on a board a lot of draws. Your hand is vulnerable. Charge him to complete his straight, don't let him set his own odds.

[swolfe]

raise the friggin flop, dude!

[Macquarie]

I'd probably raise the flop, but I'm not so worried about your flat call. So he hit his out in this case, but most of the time he won't hit the turn and you'll often win an extra turn bet from AQ or an overpair.

You have to raise the turn though - the board is getting very coordinated, so you've got to raise to at least 30 to charge him to continue.

His river bet I think lets you safely fold. He didn't hit the 2, so he obviously was slowplaying something. You haven't invested much so far, and you don't have the pot odds to call hoping to see QJ. I'd expect a set or jacks or queens more often than the straight.

[Publos Nemesis]

you got served for just calling.

[DoubleDown]

[ QUOTE ]
His river bet I think lets you safely fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding here is terrible

[Macquarie]

What do you put him on that you are beating? I'd appreciate you explaining so I might learn something - I'm not learning anything from your post as it stands.

[Mathemagician]

I agree that in hindsight raising the flop looks like a good idea. FWIW, I am not shy about raising as my aggression factor is above 3 and my flop aggression is well over 4.

However, as I said, at the time it seemed like he was betting his flush draw, possibly with a pair. Given his 4BB UTG preflop raise and 3/4 pot flop bet, AA, KK, any AK, AQc, and any other AQ are all very reasonable holdings at that point, as are QQ and JJ (but I pay off set over set at 100NL anyway). I think they're still reasonable holdings after the weaker turn bet. If he had AQc, I had his queen and ace outs counterfeited (as well as some of his flush outs) and so would not be getting the odds he thought he was. That's why I felt it was OK to just call his flop bet instead of raising. I'm quite certain that a raise here gets him to fold, but if he's going to give himself bad odds to draw I'm going to let him draw. So, not raising the flop is questionable but I don't think it's terrible.

I definitely would not have expected him to raise UTG with T9s (which is, incidentally, why it worked so well). I had even considered the possibility during the hand, but discounted it. If I made a big mistake I think this was it, but I still think T9s is a very unlikely holding here.

He hit is longshot draw on the turn, so raising any significant amount there gets me in just as much trouble as I'm pretty much committed and he's already made his hand. What could I possibly be representing with a raise that would scare him off of a made straight? Zero, that's what. If you raise here and then fold to a push reraise or push on the river, you'll be folding a lot of sets to players with flush draws or overpairs.

Frankly, I was trying to represent myself as a calling station (judging from the responses I succeeded) with a flush draw or TPGK type hand and induce the oversized river bluff that so often comes from a guy who bets his draws or the push from a guy who thinks his pocket aces or kings or two pair are safe because the flush didn't come. That works so often it's ridiculous, and as long as you give poor odds to draw and don't pay off big when the obvious draws hit I'm certain it's +EV. His bets make just as much (if not more) sense coming from someone with a busted nut flush draw (esp AQ/AJ) as they do with his straight.

I think where I went wrong was being so far off on my read. He clearly knew this and played it very, very well. That's why I say I got punked... because he played me like a fiddle! The more I think about this hand the more I like his play, and the more I learn from it. Am I way off base?

Thoughts?

M

P.S. I didn't want to say too much with the original post as I didn't want to "poison" the responses.

[Mathemagician]

[ QUOTE ]
Charge him to complete his straight, don't let him set his own odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Knowing what he had and putting myself in his position, I honestly think his flop bet was nothing more than a continuation bet hoping to grab the pot right there, but he caught a really lucky turn. (i.e. Dang, I missed. OK, 3/4 pot and hopefully he'll fold.) There's no way he was trying to set his own odds to draw to an inside straight with a 3/4 pot bet, and there's no way he had odds to draw to his straight. That's not even proper odds on a flush draw, which don't carry big implied odds with me.

If I were doing the betting I'd probably have made it somewhere between 3/4 pot and pot anyway, so he gave himself the same odds he'd get from me either way.

M

[Mathemagician]

[ QUOTE ]
His river bet I think lets you safely fold. He didn't hit the 2, so he obviously was slowplaying something. You haven't invested much so far, and you don't have the pot odds to call hoping to see QJ. I'd expect a set or jacks or queens more often than the straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I expect an overset to value bet more often than push on the river. This type of huge overbet river push seems to be more often a busted flush bluff or semi-bluff (with AQ) or an overpair. I did not expect to see QJ at all, and I expected to see QQ or JJ much less than half of the time (QQ and JJ get dealt just as often as AA and KK, but AA/KK raise UTG and make this river push more often than QQ/JJ). But then again, I didn't expect to see the straight either so what do I know. As you can tell, I'm still going back and forth about my play on this hand.

It seems so silly in hindsight, but in real time would any of you honestly put him on T9 more than a tiny percent of the time with the UTG PFR? I'm still not sure if I can get away from this. I know it's a high variance play, but unless someone can show me that it's -EV I think I have to keep making it. I've been shown AA/KK/busted draw so many times under these circumstances that I'm fairly certain it's +EV.

M

[Mathemagician]

BTW, thank you all for taking the time to consider this hand and respond.

[Macquarie]

I certainly can't imagine an overpair playing this way on the river - that would be very bizzare. It really looks to me like he slowplayed the turn and then decided to try to make some profit on the river. I' agree that you shouldn't be afraid of the straight, but there other hands to be afraid of.

It could be a bluff, but that would not be normal play for a normal player would it? Did you have a read that this guy was tricky?

[steaknshake925]

i didnt realize overbet pushing with a busted flush draw was common at 100nl. i dont think i saw that very often at all.

on the river, folding is out of the question. there are too many hands you can beat here--big twopair, bluff, AA, etc. calling is easily correct.

i like raising flop, especially since your aggression factor is high, you need to use that to jam with your monsters and get paid. callin is not bad either but on the turn you have to raise:
[ QUOTE ]
He hit is longshot draw on the turn, so raising any significant amount there gets me in just as much trouble as I'm pretty much committed and he's already made his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
sure he had the nuts this hand, but in general with this action you will be ahead here against a live draw that you need to charge big. dont be results oriented, not blasting this turn is very bad. raise the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
I think where I went wrong was being so far off on my read. He clearly knew this and played it very, very well. That's why I say I got punked... because he played me like a fiddle!

[/ QUOTE ]
he had the nuts, you had a set on a not particularly scary board. all the money was going in anyway regardless of how he plays it. there was no way for you to not get stacked this hand. villains play was not necessarily brilliant or anything.

[Mathemagician]

[ QUOTE ]
I certainly can't imagine an overpair playing this way on the river - that would be very bizzare. It really looks to me like he slowplayed the turn and then decided to try to make some profit on the river. I' agree that you shouldn't be afraid of the straight, but there other hands to be afraid of.

It could be a bluff, but that would not be normal play for a normal player would it? Did you have a read that this guy was tricky?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, at SSHE people fall in love with their AA/KK. Once the flush doesn't hit they often go hog wild and make a bet like this. I know it's a bad way to play an overpair but it is a play that is made by bad players, if that makes sense. They seem to be more shy about betting with their strong hands. Usually you see 1/3 pot to pot sized value bets (even from TPTK on this board), not massive overbets, because they don't want to chase you away. The most common form of slowplaying a monster is to check it to you on the river then reraise all-in.

I had a weak read that he was an aggressive player and I'd seen him reraise flop bets a bit more frequently than it was likely that he had a monster. It's hard to say though when the hands aren't shown down and the sample size is small.

M

[kurto]

I say you have to raise that flop if only because there's 2 clubs.

reraise it the pot.

[Mathemagician]

[ QUOTE ]
sure he had the nuts this hand, but in general with this action you will be ahead here against a live draw that you need to charge big. dont be results oriented, not blasting this turn is very bad. raise the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you that this is a questionable call. In real-time, I was trying to bring along a flush draw/TPTK with fairly bad odds and hopefully induce a river bluff/value bet (not necessarily all-in) which would definitely not come if I raised the turn. Maybe this was a bad idea, but I'm not sure it's results oriented.

No way did I put him on a hand that had me beat anywhere close to half of the time. My thinking at the time was that raising the turn would serve only to fold most hands that I beat and get called/reraised all-in by only an overset or the bad AA/KK player (or the straight which I still consider a very unlikely holding).

What desirable result does a turn bet produce, given his range of likely holdings (heck, you can even ignore the straight when answering this question)?

As you say, though, one way or another all the money was going to the middle once he made his hand on the turn and the flush draw didn't hit.

M

[Mathemagician]

[ QUOTE ]
I say you have to raise that flop if only because there's 2 clubs.

reraise it the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Had he not given bad odds to draw on his own, I would have given them to him for sure. He was trying to fold me out if I was on a flush draw. It is my understanding that when you have a hand you WANT people to try to draw out on you, so long as they have incorrect (pot and implied) odds to do so. Is this thinking incorrect?

Thanks!
M

[Macquarie]

If he did flop a flush draw, he would play it exactly like this. He gets himself 2.5:1 odds, and only needs another ten bucks from you on later streets if he hits the turn. Easy implied odds, especially as he disguises his draw by betting out.

[Mathemagician]

[ QUOTE ]
If he did flop a flush draw, he would play it exactly like this. He gets himself 2.5:1 odds, and only needs another ten bucks from you on later streets if he hits the turn. Easy implied odds, especially as he disguises his draw by betting out.

[/ QUOTE ]
Let's count his outs. He has 9 flush cards, but I have the 5 and Q counterfeited. That gives him 7 clean outs on the turn, which is a little worse than 5.5:1. At 2.5:1, I'd say he got pretty bad odds to draw at a flush.

On the river he has 6 outs (the jack of clubs is now mine, too) which is worse than 6.5:1. His turn bet gave him 4:1, which is better than I would have given him but I could live with it.

If the flush gets made on either the turn or river and he makes any kind of real bet, I'm outta there. I do call a smallish bet if he hits on the turn hoping to boat up, of course, as I have 10 clean outs (any 8, Q, or J and the remaining 5) plus some implied odds of my own. As I said, I thought he was most likely betting a flush draw and there is no reason for me to change my mind should a clean flush card hit.

It's certainly a reasonable line for him with a flush draw, but I don't think it's as clear cut as you make it seem.

Edit: Whoops! The 5c is already out there, giving him 8 and 7 outs on the turn and river. That gives him 4.75:1 on the turn and 5.5:1 on the river. Still not a bargain by any means.

[spahk]

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. I didn't want to say too much with the original post as I didn't want to "poison" the responses.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you poisoned the responses by including the results. you played the hand well. your opponent just hit a hand and played it better.

raising on the flop is fine. calling is also okay. raising on the turn is fine. you can call too. that's okay.
your opponent made a very clever all-in overbet on the river with the nuts. most players at 100nl can't do that. you have to call. note him and move on.

the thing about the hand i find a little problematic is that you dismissed T9 because of his UTG pre-flop raise. not everyone has the same raising standards. i don't think raising utg with T9s isn't unreasonable.

[FreakDaddy]

I'm guessing everyone is going to say 'raise' the flop. I'm of course going to say their wrong. /images/graemlins/smile.gif What was villians PFA? If you think he'll fire a second bullet on the turn, then you're correct in flat calling. Even if you're not entirely sure, you have a better chance of enducing another bluff vs mini-raising and having villian drop if he really didn't have anything. Since I peeked at the hand results (don't post them in the future), it's real tough to put villian on 89. As it stands you should have raised the turn, it would have saved you a good chunk of change. Oh well, it happens... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
There's no way he was trying to set his own odds to draw to an inside straight with a 3/4 pot bet. That's not even proper odds on a flush draw, which don't carry big implied odds with me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Setting your own odds is a term I used to describe how you let him dictate the tempo and take charge of the hand. Which is not good. He did set his own odds.

[Lawrence Ng]

Your opponent is the typical crap player on Party SS NL

Bets strong when drawing, bets weak with a made hand on the turn to let cheap draws like a flush/fh get there, and then pounds it for horrible over-bet on the river when a crap card calls trying to fake a "please don't call me" type play when it's obvious his hand is monstrous.

Gotta love these guys..

Lawrence

[fuzzbox]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he did flop a flush draw, he would play it exactly like this. He gets himself 2.5:1 odds, and only needs another ten bucks from you on later streets if he hits the turn. Easy implied odds, especially as he disguises his draw by betting out.

[/ QUOTE ]
Let's count his outs. He has 9 flush cards, but I have the 5 and Q counterfeited. That gives him 7 clean outs on the turn, which is a little worse than 5.5:1. At 2.5:1, I'd say he got pretty bad odds to draw at a flush.

On the river he has 6 outs (the jack of clubs is now mine, too) which is worse than 6.5:1. His turn bet gave him 4:1, which is better than I would have given him but I could live with it.

If the flush gets made on either the turn or river and he makes any kind of real bet, I'm outta there. I do call a smallish bet if he hits on the turn hoping to boat up, of course, as I have 10 clean outs (any 8, Q, or J and the remaining 5) plus some implied odds of my own. As I said, I thought he was most likely betting a flush draw and there is no reason for me to change my mind should a clean flush card hit.

It's certainly a reasonable line for him with a flush draw, but I don't think it's as clear cut as you make it seem.

Edit: Whoops! The 5c is already out there, giving him 8 and 7 outs on the turn and river. That gives him 4.75:1 on the turn and 5.5:1 on the river. Still not a bargain by any means.

[/ QUOTE ]

While he is giving himself bad odds to draw (if he is drawing), you are making it hard for yourself to get paid if he has a strong made hand (which he represented by raising UTG and betting the flop), if you do not raise. If he has AA or KK, then what happens when a 3rd club DOES hit ? What happens when you raise the turn/river ? Most likely AA/KK dont even bet the river.

Also - what if he has AcKc ... and a T falls ? Whats your action going to be on the river ?

You have no idea what hand he has, nor how you expect to get paid (other than hoping against all hope that he makes a massive river overbet when a flush DOESNT get there).

Surely you prefer to raise flop or turn, in order to make the pot big and hopefully getting him to make a mistake for his stack ... rather than just for $15.

[Escotme]

Let's look at it from the Villain's perspective instead.

I'm UTG with T /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Let's bring some variation to my game and raise 4x. Only one caller - good. The bad thing is he's got position.

Flop comes 5 /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif. Ok, that queen is scary, let's hope he doesn't have one and see if I can scare him off. I'll bet 2/3 the pot. He only calls... Uhm, if he had the Q or an overpar, I'd expect a raise. Maybe he's drawing for flush, or he's slowplaying QQ. Besides, I have a gutshot straight draw.

Turn: J /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Yes! Let's boogie! All I have to worry about now is him making a flush or a fh. I want to make my bet large enough so that he might call with implied odds on a draw, but not too large and scare him away. Let's bet 1/2 the pot. Again he just calls... Let's hope for a non-club and no pairing on the board.

The river is a dud: 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I've got him. How can I make the most money? If I bet too little, he might get suspicious and start thinking too much, or he might just call, making me loose (relatively) some money. If I go ai, he might think that I'm trying to scare him off, or he takes me for a loose player with a medium hand, or he could call because he's frustrated and now has only $80 left or because he's a born calling station.(lol.)If I'm really lucky, he hasn't even seen my straight. Heck, let's go for gold!

And so comes your undoing, Mathemagician. In hind sight, the Villain doesn't have to be a thoroughbred pro to play like he did, it could very well be just happy Gilmore who got lucky. If you put yourself behind his cards, you'd probably wonder how come he (you) doesn't see and is scared of the straight. I had a similar thing happen to me the other day, so I empathize. The thing I was trying to take away - although it's hard when you just lost your whole stack - is that until I'm able to read these situations correctly, I'll stay at my current level. Let's learn and move on.

[Mathemagician]

Again, thank you all for taking the time to respond. This has been and continues to be extremely helpful.

Here's what I am still trying to understand. Given his range of possible holdings and corresponding odds of his holding each, exactly what does a substantial turn raise accomplish?

If he is ahead and he calls, we're generally getting all-in on the blank river as any bet is much less than pot sized and most of my remaining stack. If he reraises all-in, I still don't think I'm getting away from it given his range. AQc/overset/straight call or make the reraise push every time. I would expect them to mostly call. Non-club AQ and AA/KK call/push some of the time, but get real shy on the river. The flush draw folds 100% of the time. Don't get me wrong, I love to bet and take the lead in a hand as my aggression factor shows. It just seems to me that in this case if he is beat I've minimized my payoff amd if I'm beat I've maximized his. I've found that letting players with marginal hands take the lead at SSHE to be more profitable than pushing them off their hands early. It's higher variance, no doubt, but higher EV too.

For the record, I did not expect him to push the river on a pure bluff although it is not that unusual. The typical river bluff is in the neighborhood of pot sized, usually just a little bit bigger as they go for that extra intimidation factor. When he pushed I really, really expected to be shown AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or AQ by a player who thinks his hand is best (sometimes he's right, but that's OK). I am not surprised to see a bluff and certainly far more surprised to be shown T9.

Thanks!
M

[TheWorstPlayer]

You should be trying to get all in here. Flat calling on the flop is fine, but you must raise the turn. There is some chance he is drawing live and you need to get the money in before he either misses and c/f or hits and busts you on the river. There is no excuse for leaving yourself with such deep stacks on the river. Your goal here is to get money in the pot. Raise the flop or raise the turn. You should mix it up so that you are not readable. And mix it up with your draws, too. My default would be to call the flop and raise the turn with a set and the raise the flop with a draw. But I'd say it is about 80/20 with both, maybe.

[Mathemagician]

OK, I think I see. Raising the turn is not done here with the intent of finding out where I stand and possibly getting away from the hand, but rather to give him the opportunity to make a bigger mistake than he is likely to make on his own. That makes much more sense.

[swolfe]

i disagree with the flop call. i'm raising the flop to protect from the flush draw and take control of the betting. i want to build a big enough pot to get my stack in, and it's a lot easier to do that by raising in an earlier round.

[VarlosZ]

Unless you're almost certain that the villain will fire big on the turn with AK/AJ, I think a flop raise is mandatory. Your objective isn't to get a few more bucks from a weak/mediocre hand. You're trying to get all the money from AA, KK, and maybe AQ, and to do that you should start to build the pot. Your hand is very strong and well concealed, and your opponent has shown strength, so raise. I'd probably make it $24-$30 on the flop, then push the turn.

If you don't raise the flop, you should raise the turn, for the same reasons. It's going to be hard to get all the money in on the river with just a $40 pot.

[salloch]

This looks like a spy vs. spy episode...with both of you trying to out-think the other...good stuff.

Raising this flop is the standard play. And it's what I do most of the time.

However, I don't mind your calling the flop to represent a flush draw. Villian can't be the only player allowed to play his hand in a devious manner.

I would have pushed the turn however. Now there are two flush draws and a bona fide straight draw. There are too many cards on the river to scare him or you. Your best chance to get your set paid off is here.

It's very hard to put the villian on T9. Even if you did, you'd have to heavily discount the possiblity. Yes, if you raise the flop, you will probably take it down, but if he holds AA, KK, TT, AQ, AJ, or maybe AK you are setting yourself up for a much bigger win by calling.

I think the important thing is that you put him on a range of hands, and came up with what you thought was the best plan to win the most. This time it didn't work.

-salloch

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
This looks like a spy vs. spy episode...with both of you trying to out-think the other...good stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think either was trying to outsmart each other, they just outsmarted themselves and villain got the best of it.

Villain played this hand poorly from the turn on.

Hero just plained played this hand bad.

Lawrence

[tripdad]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
His river bet I think lets you safely fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding here is terrible

[/ QUOTE ]

a good LAG, which this guy seems to be, doesn't bet this big on the river without the pure nuts usually.

cheers!

[tripdad]

[ QUOTE ]
Your opponent is the typical crap player on Party SS NL

Bets strong when drawing, bets weak with a made hand on the turn to let cheap draws like a flush/fh get there, and then pounds it for horrible over-bet on the river when a crap card calls trying to fake a "please don't call me" type play when it's obvious his hand is monstrous.

Gotta love these guys..

Lawrence

[/ QUOTE ]

from what i see, these guys really clean up the low limit games, feasting on both TAGs, and the bad loose players. the smart ones can really pick out the decent players and adjust.

cheers!

[MonkeeMan]

[ QUOTE ]
your opponent made a very clever all-in overbet on the river with the nuts. most players at 100nl can't do that. you have to call. note him and move on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Couldn't disagree more. I think the opponent is a donkey who got lucky on the turn and made a horrible bet on the river. What hands does he put hero on that call this bet?

I'm also in the raise the turn camp.

[Macquarie]

Just gonna collect my thoughts on this, since it's been a really interesting thread.

Main debate seems to be that hero is defending his check-call line by saying he want to maximise the EV against a player with a marginal hand. Villain will just fold to a raise! The problem seems to be that you don't want to maximise your EV against a player with very little, you want to maximise your EV against a player with something he likes - this is where you have a chance of taking down a big pot and where your money is to be made. Sure somtimes a flop raise folds out a hand that might have given you a few more bucks, but on the other hand it builds a big pot against someone who likes their hand enought to call or play back at your raise. You're aiming to win his stack, not win 15 bucks.

There's no reason on the flop to think villain doesn't have a hand like an overpair or AQ. With a hand like this, he's much more likely to play back at a raise on the flop than on later streets, especially if a scare card (for him) like a club falls. The extra EV you gain against this sort of hand by raising the flop make up for the cases when you fold out a marginal hand.

The other argument is raising to protect your hand. Slow playing a low set this slow seems like a way to win a small pot or lose a big one. Hero says that villain has already given himself poor odds, and hero is not going to pay off the flush. I really disagree here - villain has great implied odds. He raises preflop, leads with 3/4 the pot on the flop (which he would do with virtually any hand). If a club comes on the turn and he bets half the pot you have to call or probably even raise! He would make this turn bet with all the hands you beat, and you have no reason to put him on the flush. Even considering the times when you redraw to the f/h I think he has good odds.

If he's drawing on the turn, this is even worse - he's getting great pot odds, and great implied odds... if a spade hits on the river, you're gonna have to call a pot-sized bet aren't you?

So for the twin reasons of building a pot early against a raiser who has hit the flop, and for protecting against draws that have good implied odds, you have to raise flop and turn.