Cashout curse.

[Freudian]

This has more to do with psychology than anything.

In the last three months I have withdrawn money from the Party network five times. The day after I have had a big downswing (20 buyins+ each time) that has lasted two days. I have never had a 10+ buyin downswing outside these five times. So there is a big correlation for what could be called the cashout curse (note I didn't say causation).

I know intellectually that a cashout curse is nonsense and I have genuinely looked forward to each time time to get a chance to prove myself wrong by continuing to winning after a withdrawal.

So yesterday I cashed out. And in my first six tourneys today I can't seem to win a hand.

AA vs KK. Both miss flop and we get our money in. K on the turn.
AKs vs AQ. All in. Q on the turn.
QT vs J4 all in. T8x9Q
Lose three straight coinflips.
Overpair vs flush draw where he get the flush on the river.

I didn't win a single pot where I saw flops. The only money I won was through stealing. A single 3rd in six SnGs was the result.

It's like a giant conspiracy where I can't catch a break no matter what I do. And the sad thing is that it is getting to me. I now expect to be sucked out upon no matter how good I play. Which is of course where the problem lies. If this goes on I will play scared and expect to do worse than normally.

So I am taking a two day break waiting for this (real or imaginary) curse to pass. In fact I have played poker pretty much each day for the last three months so I think it will be good for me either way.

Flame away.

[Voltron87]

I didn't read all of it but I'm 90% sure your mind is playing tricks on you.

[BDarch]

yea its normally just a regression to the mean since you had a lot of good luck to win enough to cash out a decent amount.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't read all of it but I'm 90% sure your mind is playing tricks on you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't read all of your reply so I don't know what those 90% is referring to. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
yea its normally just a regression to the mean since you had a lot of good luck to win enough to cash out a decent amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have misunderstood what regression to the mean is. It is not a cosmic force that comes in and makes big corrections. It is the smoothing out of anomalies in huge numbers of events.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I didn't read all of it but I'm 90% sure your mind is playing tricks on you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't read all of your reply so I don't know what those 90% is referring to. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

fair enough. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

but my post was about 1/5000th the size of yours. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[BDarch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yea its normally just a regression to the mean since you had a lot of good luck to win enough to cash out a decent amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have misunderstood what regression to the mean is. It is not a cosmic force that comes in and makes big corrections. It is the smoothing out of anomalies in huge numbers of events.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea I know I jsut couldn't really think of a good way to phrase what I meant without using that term.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yea its normally just a regression to the mean since you had a lot of good luck to win enough to cash out a decent amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have misunderstood what regression to the mean is. It is not a cosmic force that comes in and makes big corrections. It is the smoothing out of anomalies in huge numbers of events.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea I know I jsut couldn't really think of a good way to phrase what I meant without using that term.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is if anything sample bias on my part. Since I know I have run bad each time I have cashed out choosing the time after I cashed out as the sample inevitably leads me to conclude I run bad after cashing out. A self-fulfilling prophecy.

For example I could just as well have taken the period 3-4 days after I cash out (where I each time have bounced back and won back what I lost) and conclude that I have a delayed cashout blessing.

[crookedhat99]

[ QUOTE ]
yea its normally just a regression to the mean since you had a lot of good luck to win enough to cash out a decent amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no such thing as regression to the mean.

[The Yugoslavian]

Umm.....I hate to rain on your parade, but if you keep cashing out I'd say that you seem to have a cashout blessing...

Every time you cashout you seem to win even more money and have to cashout again /images/graemlins/shocked.gif.

Where's the curse? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Yugoslav

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Umm.....I hate to rain on your parade, but if you keep cashing out I'd say that you seem to have a cashout blessing...

Every time you cashout you seem to win even more money and have to cashout again /images/graemlins/shocked.gif.

Where's the curse? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

The "curse" being that every time I cash out I get two days of -50% ROI? Your argument is that a guy that won the lottery and then gets run over by a truck wasn't unlucky because hey, he won the lottery.

Anyway, I don't believe Party puts me on a shitlist for two days each time I cash out. It is just the absurd bad luck each time that gets me off balance and in the end makes me play worse poker and play for the wrong reason (to confirm that surely it must be kosher). I stated in the first line it was more about psychology than anything else.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Umm.....I hate to rain on your parade, but if you keep cashing out I'd say that you seem to have a cashout blessing...

Every time you cashout you seem to win even more money and have to cashout again /images/graemlins/shocked.gif.

Where's the curse? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

Your argument is that a guy that won the lottery and then gets run over by a truck wasn't unlucky because hey, he won the lottery.


[/ QUOTE ]

That was my argument? Wow, I must be stupid!

[ QUOTE ]

Anyway, I don't believe Party puts me on a shitlist for two days each time I cash out. It is just the absurd bad luck each time that gets me off balance and in the end makes me play worse poker and play for the wrong reason (to confirm that surely it must be kosher). I stated in the first line it was more about psychology than anything else.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I know...it's about not looking at results in short term groupings....there is enough goofy data that your confirmation bias will reinforce whatever you most fear or hope or do or don't expect.....it's just silly.

My 'argument' (well, I'm not really making one since it's pretty silly to construct an argument involving a actual cashout curse) is that it's a pretty weak f*ckin curse if you can keep cashing out...then it's more like a 'bottomless money pit' kinda curse....that sounds fine to me.

/images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Yugoslav

[ur2god]

believe it or not this happens to me too,
i was down 25 buyins yesterday, fortunately i got it back
tho..

[Blarg]

Better than having a cash-in curse!

[niin]

[ QUOTE ]
yea its normally just a regression to the mean since you had a lot of good luck to win enough to cash out a decent amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

You say this like, if you have a good run of cards, you're 'due' for a bad run or something. The fact that you had good 'luck' previously has nothing to do with the current set of hands.

[GrekeHaus]

[ QUOTE ]
Better than having a cash-in curse!

[/ QUOTE ]

I think 90% of Party players are afflicted by this. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[viennagreen]

actually, his argument was more like a guy that wins the lottery, gets run over by a truck, and THEN wins the lottery again is pretty lucky.

[skipperbob]

Very ironic to read this very first thing this AM....2 days ago my Empire account reached an all-time high; I PM'd Irie and said that I was "honest-to-God" afraid of cashout-curse; he said "So, don't cashout"; I didn't; then went on a 20-buyin downswing;....You don't actually have to cashout; just thinking/talking about it has same effect

[Freudian]

Big Brother sees you. His real name is Phani Kumar.

[Winwood]

[ QUOTE ]
...I have withdrawn money from the Party network five times. The day after I have had a big downswing (20 buyins+ each time) that has lasted two days. I have never had a 10+ buyin downswing outside these five times.

[/ QUOTE ]

The first 3 times were just bad luck. Then you started expecting bad stuff to happen, got off your A-game, and that's what caused the other 2.

[Rosencrantz1]

My question is how does Party make you sit at tables where no one else has cashed out?

Fun thread.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

The first 3 times were just bad luck. Then you started expecting bad stuff to happen, got off your A-game, and that's what caused the other 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. I have generally been happy with the spots I get chips in the middle during all my losing streaks. Of course I am not a perfect player so whatever flaws there are in my game have been present. But sure, a few buyins probably depend on playing too many SnGs trying to break the streak. I am generally not all that tilt prone, so I don't throw away tonnes of chips out of rage. I play pretty much the same all the time with the bad habit of playing extra SnGs when running bad since I try to convince myself that the bad streak can't last forever.

This last time is the only time where I really felt where it really got to me. Which is why I quit after only six SnGs. I'll do a set or two later today and see what happens. Neutral luck or slightly below that and I'll be fine. If it's major bad beats it will have to wait until tomorrow.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
My question is how does Party make you sit at tables where no one else has cashed out?

Fun thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are seven losers in each SnG, you know. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Rosencrantz1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My question is how does Party make you sit at tables where no one else has cashed out?

Fun thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are seven losers in each SnG, you know. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

True.

Maybe you should only play ring games after you cashout? /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
I am taking a two day break waiting for this (real or imaginary) curse to pass. In fact I have played poker pretty much each day for the last three months so I think it will be good for me either way.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what I'm doing, but I hope it works. I am currently on my worst down swing yet so I decided to cash out a little to remind of the good poker I've played. Now I'm taking a 2 day break, kind of preemptive, hoping the curse will pass by the time I come back this weekend. If that doesn't help I'm going to return that tiki necklace I found in Hawaii.

[Freudian]

I think there is some value in taking a small break now and then, no matter how you have been running. I definately think it helps against fatigue and getting bored with poker.

[Dudd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My question is how does Party make you sit at tables where no one else has cashed out?

Fun thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are seven losers in each SnG, you know. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

True.

Maybe you should only play ring games after you cashout? /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, but then wouldn't you have to do reverse table selecton? Wouldn't want to get seated with the donks and get your aces cracked by J5, that's how the curse works!