Is there a bubble doctor in the house?

[Dave613]

Hello. I've been using the forum for awhile now, and a lot recently, but this is my first post. I'd really appreciate it if some of the forum gurus would give me some advice on my bubble/late game play.

I think I wait too long before making fairly risky moves, such as pushing with Kx or even something like Q7+. Waiting until I REALLY have to (as in, the blinds will eat me in 4 hands if I dont push....typically at the 200bb level or higher). I've been coming in 4th or 5th A LOT lately and I want this to stop (for one thing, it's affecting my confidence and making me second guess my basic strategy, hence reinforcing my losses). I'm going a little crazy, actually, as my hourly rate has been really going down because of this but I don't see how Ive changed (and I dont have hand histories before the last couple of weeks to inspect). This is to the point where I just moved back down from the $20+2s to the $10+1s....the horror!!! Ok, this is at risk of becoming a whining post, so I'll stick to the point.

Under what situations would you push with Qx, Kx, very low pockets, or even other hands? How shortstacked relative to the blinds do you have to be? How much of a factor is 4 versus 5 (or even 6) players left?

And now for a few relevant hands from today...sorry that the format is abit inconsistent (Im new at this). I include 3 just for some variety, but I obviously dont expect replies for all. thanks in advance

Hand#1
Today, I have been trying to change up my game a little by pushing with Kx when shortstacked, no raisers, and blinds are a big factor. Was this one too risky? There were 5 more hands left until level6.

Party Poker $10+1 No-Limit Hold'em SNG, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed)

Button ( 1486 )
SB ( 1250 )
BB ( 2918 )
UTG ( 340 )
UTG+1 ( 1456 )
Hero ( 550 )

Preflop: Hero has Kh,9d

UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero goes all-In [550], Button calls, both blinds fold.

Board: (t1400) Ad, 4h, 9c, Ks, 3s

Button had As, Jd
Hero takes it down with 2 pair

*****************
Hand#2

same tourney......would some people have pushed this one? what if it was K7+? What would my pocket cards have to be to justify pushing? In this case, though it's hard to say for sure, it looks like at least one of the Button and BB would have called me and subsequently won. There were 6 hands left until level7. Relative to the blind, I was actually just as shortstacked for this one......hmmmmm

Big Blind is t300 (5 handed)

Hero (850 )
Button (2302 )
SB (1450 )
BB (1638 )
UTG (1760 )

Preflop: Hero has Kh, 2c

UTG folds, Hero folds, Button raises [600], SB folds, BB is all-In [1338], Button calls [1038].

Board: 3s, As, Ks, 6s,9c

Button wins with [ Kc, Ts ] a flush, ace high.
BB shows [ Th, Ad ] a pair of aces.
***********************
Hand#3
Ok, last one. Here's an example of a push that I dont think I'd have done before today. No brainer?

Party Poker $10+1 No-Limit Hold'em SNG, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed)

Hero (1305)
BB (2180)
UTG (3125)
Button(1390)

Preflop: Hero has Kd, 8d

UTG folds.
Button folds.
Hero raises allin (t1605)
BB folds.

Hero wins

[Madd]

#1 The push is fine. However, how did you get into this situation with less than 3 BB? It looks to me that you probably should open-up earlier when having 5-8 BB.

#2 This is close, but I think you should push. Your next hand will on average be a little bit worse than this one and there would be 4 players left to act instead of 3. And it's better to open-push here than to wait for the BB. Again you should ask ourself if you might have had the chance to avoid being this short-stacked.

#3 is an easy, obvious auto-insta-push (welcome to the forum!)

[lastchance]

I agree with all 3 of your plays.

Note, I push any 2 or at least damn near close to that in the SB in hand #3. If pushing K8 there isn't the easiest push in the world, there's something wrong with what you're thinking.

#1, Never fold a hand like K9 there. You have little folding equity, and you really need some damn chips. This is one of those, meh, I guess I have to, slide your chips in play.

#2, I think the fold is fine, but it's close. Right now, you've got so few chips that you're going to be all-in very soon, and you need to pick up. With 4x BB, I probably push here.

[Dave613]

Thanks for the reply guys.

So, roughly speaking, do you think having 5-8bb is time to look for a good opportunity to push with Kx, or even less? Ok, the way I play, and from the looks of it many of the posters around here, is tight is right for levels 1-3 and even tighter after that (but more aggressive when I get a good starting hand) unless I get very shortstacked (and my definition of shortstacked, I guess, has to be modified). Then, well over half the time (maybe 60-65%), I only have 600-700 chips left when the blinds go to 100. I guess I'd push late in level 4 with K7+ with no callers before me....but there are often still 6 or 7 players left at this point.

Man, I guess I need to grow me some bigger balls. Honestly, I don't mind risking it when I can smell the money (4 or 5 players left) and I'm very shortstacked, but 6 or 7 players left is a different story. Of course, 7 players left with 3 or 4 folds in front of me makes a push much easier, but that doesn't often happen when Im holding something decent. What is decent in this situation? It's hard for me to accept, for instance, that I should push with K5o when I have 600 chips in level4 if, by doing so, I will only gain 150 chips if Im not called. And so you know, I follow the "if my normal raise would leave me with 40% of my stack, go allin" rule.

Madd, I looked back at the tourney that my hands1 and 2 were from. The 3 hands before my hand1 example were obvious folds, (94o, 38o, Q4o with 2bb raise in front of me). But I guess I could have pushed a couple of hands in late level3....but that is just so counter-intuitive for me.

Lastchance, regarding pushing almost any 2 in hand#3, what if UTG did a 3bb raise, (very normal at this point)?

If anyone could link me to good bubble/shortstacked threads, I'd appreciate it (hopefully with some rules of which cards to push and how shortstacked relative to blinds). I have seen the ones linked from the Shadows FAQ.