Set facing action.

[kongo_totte]

Villian is fishy but not a maniac and he seems to have at least a clue of what he is doing. He is 44/9 after 120 hands and I have notes that says he likes to chase draws and he slow played flopped FH till river once. I have never seen him come over the top like that.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 ($76.2)
UTG+2 ($45.84)
MP1 ($29.75)
Hero ($58.7)
MP3 ($42.95)
CO ($54.95)
Button ($14.5)
SB ($94.43)
BB ($46.25)
UTG ($98.8)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($4.75) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, CO calls $3.

Turn: ($10.75) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, villain pushes for $41 more, Hero folds.

Is that incredibly weak?

[DoubleDown]

Villain seems somewhat loose pre-flop and could easily be in here with AT AJ JT TT (KQ you worry about obv, but I think AA probably re-raises preflop most of the time) ... villain has already slow-played monsters before, if he's massively overbetting here to make it seem like he's putting on a move, well then he gets your stack here. i think he may have been on a hand like KJ or QJ and looking to force a fold.

In the heat of the moment I probably would have called considering that there are many hands that he may hold that I have beat here with which he'd make a similar move (and had he flopped the nuts he would have slow-played a little more, rather than overbet)

interested to hear other responses

[kongo_totte]

The main reason I don't compare this to his slow played top boat is that he seems to have somewhat of a clue, and I have been showing alot of strenght, so I think he might suspect my set and want's me to pay to draw out. But you are correct that he could have just about anythin considering his pre-flop looseness.

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is fishy but not a maniac and he seems to have at least a clue of what he is doing. He is 44/9 after 120 hands and I have notes that says he likes to chase draws and he slow played flopped FH till river once. I have never seen him come over the top like that.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 ($76.2)
UTG+2 ($45.84)
MP1 ($29.75)
Hero ($58.7)
MP3 ($42.95)
CO ($54.95)
Button ($14.5)
SB ($94.43)
BB ($46.25)
UTG ($98.8)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($4.75) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, CO calls $3.

Turn: ($10.75) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, villain pushes for $41 more, Hero folds.

Is that incredibly weak?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I think it is incredibly weak. You always seem to be so damn weak-tight kongo, I sometimes wonder if you even enjoy playing poker. Your game reminds me of a guys who's really nervous on a date with a beautiful woman. (My comments are intended for a chuckle, but aren't totally inaccurate I don't think.)

-T

[kongo_totte]

[quote
Yes, I think it is incredibly weak. You always seem to be so damn weak-tight kongo, I sometimes wonder if you even enjoy playing poker. Your game reminds me of a guys who's really nervous on a date with a beautiful woman. (My comments are intended for a chuckle, but aren't totally inaccurate I don't think.)

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

You are very right. I am a weak-tight bastard. But somehow, I'm still winning. A great player and poster on this forum (don't remember who) once said, when he was critizised of being weak tight, something like "say what you want, "weak-tight" is just a phrase that means nothing to me". However, there is one aspect of poker that I find more important than any other; the feel for the situation. I just felt he had K Q. This, of course, could be disastrous if executed by someone whose feeiling/touch is horrible.

However, this could explain my poor dating results the last 5 years /images/graemlins/laugh.gif.

[Escotme]

I think he had A4, possibly hearts. That would explain why he called your preflop raise - he had a draw and position. When you bet on the flop, he called - hoping you had KK, JJ or small PP, not A with high kicker. Your bet on the turn will tell him if he's right. When the 4 hit on the turn, he's thinking he's ahead, even if you have A with high kicker, but he's scared silly about the flush and straight draws, so he wants to put you off the hand and hence goes ai. It's very risky, given that you could have AJ or AT and I wouldn't play like this, but given the Villain's maniac tendencies, that's how I'd read him. Make sense?

[Ghazban]

I don't like your fold. I think your opponent believes he is ahead with something strong but I don't think he has either of the 2 hands that beat you (KQ/AA). I think you will see AJ/AT/A4/JT/TT/44 from villain often enough to make a call profitable.

The only hand you're royally screwed against here is AA and that seems unlikely. Against any of his holdings but KQ, you're light years ahead and, against KQ, you have outs. This isn't to say you can call if he flips over his cards and shows you KQ, but, against his range of hands, I believe this is a call (try running it through pokerstove with his range of hands as KQ,AA,TT,44,AJ,AT,A4,JT and tell me what comes out-- I expect it'll be +EV).

[subzero]

His possible hands are KQ, AA, A4, AT, AJ, JT, and TT. You're 22% against KQ and 2% against AA. You're better than 95% against the other hands. There are 27 ways you are ahead and 19 that you are behind:

ahead: (27 * .95) = 25.65
behind: ((16 (KQ) * .22) + (3 (AA) * .02)) = 3.58

(25.65 + 3.58) / 46 hands = 63% chance to win on average

Assuming equal probabilities for these possible hands, you're a favorite to win the hand and you're getting 1.4:1 on your call. I think you have to call here unless you have every reason to believe that he has aces. I personally think he would've re-raised you preflop or on the flop with aces, though. There are a lot of hands that you beat here.

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming equal probabilities for these possible hands

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, there lies the problem. I think it's pretty safe to say he hasn´t A A. But his play based on the type of player he is screams KQ.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Assuming equal probabilities for these possible hands

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, there lies the problem. I think it's pretty safe to say he hasn´t A A. But his play based on the type of player he is screams KQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

What percentage of the time do you expect him to have KQ? I doubt its 100% even if you have a strong read. You could do some math to find out exactly how often he needs to have it to make calling the all-in correct. If you've never done this sort of calculation, I strongly urge you to do so (and not just you, kongo, anybody trying to improve their game should sit down and work out the math behind situations like this).

[kongo_totte]

Your very right. The advanced math issues is something I have to work on. I often do it in simpler situations, like how often I have to be right to make a river call etc. This summer I will spend time trying to learn it well.

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]
Your very right. The advanced math issues is something I have to work on. I often do it in simpler situations, like how often I have to be right to make a river call etc. This summer I will spend time trying to learn it well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not super difficult in this spot Kongo, I'll start you off. You're being offered 1.44:1. To make it easy we'll round that off to you needing to win 40% of the time to break even.

Against KQ you have 10 outs. We'll still use all 46 unkowns since we don't know for sure. So thats 3.6:1. We can round that to 22%.

You can go from here. Remember the times he doesn't have KQ he would probably most likely have have 1-2 outs to beat you.


You should be able to figure out the odds you are being offered while in the hand, but converting from odd's to percentages can be a little to much in 30 seconds. Committ these to memory and approximate from there. They are slightly rounded to be easier to remember.

5:1 = 17%
4:1 = 20%
3.5:1 = 22%
3:1 = 25%
2.5:1 = 29%
2:1 = 33%
1.5:1 = 40%

[MixedNuts]

Lets make our analysis something like this

Hand Probab WinRate
KQ.......0.4........0.22
A-Up...0.25...... 0.95
AA......0.10...... 0.023
XXc......0.17...... 0.70
other......0.03...... 0.90 (Harringtons rule)

So your EV is 0.47 * $100 = $47 on the $41 u need to call. So the math says call, just barely!

Does anyone else put him on a busted flush about 1/6 of the time?

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Is that incredibly weak?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes.

[tripdad]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he had A4, possibly hearts. That would explain why he called your preflop raise - he had a draw and position. When you bet on the flop, he called - hoping you had KK, JJ or small PP, not A with high kicker. Your bet on the turn will tell him if he's right. When the 4 hit on the turn, he's thinking he's ahead, even if you have A with high kicker, but he's scared silly about the flush and straight draws, so he wants to put you off the hand and hence goes ai. It's very risky, given that you could have AJ or AT and I wouldn't play like this, but given the Villain's maniac tendencies, that's how I'd read him. Make sense?

[/ QUOTE ]

putting your opponent on a precise hand is a mistake made by way too many in online poker. you should always strive to put them on a range of possibilities, and proceed from there. the danger is always putting them on hands you can beat, or that give you the maximum number of outs. you end up making very bad calls when this happens.

example: you have AK. yada, yada, yada. UTG bets into you on K high board with 2 diamonds, but otherwise rags. you raise the size of the pot. UTG comes over the top all-in, forcing you to a difficult decision when you have a big stack, and so does he. newbie says to himself, "he's either got KQ, or a nut flush draw." then calls. newbie is drawing near dead when UTG shows his set of 8's. see what i mean?

cheers!