PDA

View Full Version : Good/Bad turn/river Logic?


AZK
05-25-2005, 06:46 PM
Note: The problem in my thinking here is that not everyone reads 2+2, knows what a value bet is etc...

On to the hand:

Greektown 2/2/5

I'm playing well and have the table covered. I haven't really gotten out of line, showed down bluffs, nothing. When I've flipped over on the river, it's been the nuts basically. I'm aggressively raising with position but my image isn't crazy or anything. 5 limpers to me and I oblige and throw in $3 on the button with 62o (this isn't as bad as it looks, if I hit I get paid, that's it - going to start a new thread about this)

Flop 234 two hearts

BB bets 30, folded around to me, I call.

(I'm calling here mostly to see what he has and to see if he is willing to fire again on the turn. This is mostly curiousity and my gutshot. This is not interesting to me, so I don't need any comments about preflop and flop)

A note about the BB: this kid seems to be playing pretty scared, he worked his buyin up to over 2k but has since then beeen slowly giving it away. To the best of my knowledge I have not seen him bet his draws, when he bets, he normally has a hand that isn't the nuts (he'd slowplay) but one he wants to protect against. I haven't seen him win a pot past the flop, i.e. if betting goes down on the turn/river he is normally folding and or losing on the river. When he bets the flop he wins since most of the time people fold (and he will show something like TPTK. Does this make any sense?

Turn 5h

He checks, I bet 50, he makes it 200. I hesitate and call.

This is very bizarre. If he had a set, he would not raise me as I could be representing anything from the straight to the flush. If he has a flush, he could raise me, but I still think he would slow play. He isn't good enough to check-raise the nut straight or flush. I suppose he could do it with an inferior flush, but at the time it didn't feel like a "I have a good hand bet" it felt more like a "I'm scared bet"

River 3

He bets 400, I think for a little and finally call.

Final board is 23453 (3 hearts).

On the river I am thinking, if he did have the flush, the 3 is very scary, so why would he lead for a potsized bet with the flush, I would think he would throw out a block. Problem is that the only people i know that know what a blocking bet is are 2+2ers. I still felt like would check/call with the flush here, based on previous hand where he check/called the river on a equally scary board with a non-nut flush. Also on the river, I couldn't see how he got there with the set becuse of the turn bet. And if in the beginning I am 99% positive he would not play 76 like this, then it's a good call, right? Perhaps this is where live NL comes into play vs. online. This kid looked like he did not want a call. He looked scared, but again I'm not sure if it's strong enough to call.

I'm really interested in someone going through my turn/river logic for my calls to tell me whether this is awful logic, good logic or what. Thanks.

DOTTT
05-25-2005, 07:21 PM
This hand is basically based on your read of villain. That's what makes live poker so much more fun then playing online, and sometimes more profitable. Your logic on the river makes a lot of sense, but of course you would have to get the turn right, and I'm not sure that's all there i.e he wouldn't c/r with the flush. A more likely scenario is that he c/r you with two pair. Your turn bet looks weak and perhaps he just felt like you were full of it and decided to raise and blow you out, however when you called he probably was intending on check folding the river but his miracle four outer hit, and he's wants to get the most out of your str8/flush. I guess that's why I would have a hard time calling, but if he indeed had the flush on the turn then the river just doesn't smell right, which means he probably doesn't have it, but my problem is what is he betting $400 on the river with? Can you put him on a hand that doesn't beat you? I'd probably fold this, say n/h and hope to see his cards. You did mention he looked weak so that obviously played a roll along with your logic when you decided to call.

So in short, if you put him on the flush after the turn the river makes it awfully difficult to believe, on the other hand your description of him playing scared makes it hard to believe he's betting the river on a complete bluff, tough tough hand I hope it worked out.

AZK
05-25-2005, 07:31 PM
Hands I beat:

overpair (yes he is that bad), Ax, be it pair plus draw or just something like AK, 54. That's about it.

I was talking with a friend, this is an incredibly easy fold online, but live it isn't looking at this kid. I agree in hingsight everything hinges on the turn read. If my read is correct I win. If my read is wrong everything is wrong and I most likely lose. I can't really explain it, but this kid would not have check-raised with the nuts and for him the nuts would have been T9s for the flush.

pillsbarry
05-25-2005, 07:43 PM
well, to me...it looks str8 up,,,he limped in, with who knows..J9hearts...had four on the flop ,,,got his flush on the turn...he c/r on the turn hoping to god you got your str8,,he keeps sucking you in and on the river your left thinking too much...call and lose...how close am i??

spahk
05-25-2005, 08:54 PM
opponent here is doing some crazy things.

if he's got the 2 pair or a set, the 5h on the turn is the worst possible card. i would be stunned if he turned over a full house on the river.

if he's got a flush, then something has gone terribly wrong with your read. he's made big bets/raises on consecutive streets that you say he'd never do with a flush. you were there. you seem smart. i'll guess you weren't that wrong about him.

what does he put you on? is he even thinking about what you may have?

i'm going to take a wild guess and say that he decided to get tricky with aces in the big blind. that hand makes bad players do crazy things. i hope it worked out.

AZK
05-25-2005, 09:50 PM
I don't think he is someone who thinks about what other players have. Sure he is able to realize, ok I'm beat, but he isn't one who is giving me a range of hands, how I play them, etc...

creedofhubris
05-26-2005, 12:18 AM
If he's playing scared, why are you so quick to assume his check-raise is a sign of weakness?

I agree, online you are toast.

piki
05-26-2005, 02:53 PM
As mentioned above, I think this comes down to your read on the player. However, I dont like your river call. I think if you are willing to call on the river which, looking at the board, is not so good, you need to raise on the river. I dont see the value in only calling the river.

When I am "probing" from late position with some interesting draws, I dont like then the board gives a flush draw. My value on this straight is beating TPTK, 2P, and set. I dont want to calldown with this inferrior hand. Just my 2cents

LuvDemNutz
05-26-2005, 03:02 PM
Semi-bluff with AhX ?