20-40 hand to talk about

[Matt D]

extremely loose, extremely aggressive 20-40 in Tunica
I am winning heavily.

My BB, 6 players limp, SB completes. I am thrilled as this is the first unraised pot in quite some time. . . Until I look down and see two red Kings. I raise, everyone calls.

Flop 8h 7h 6c

I bet, player on my left calls, next player raises. The player who raised was one of only two other semi-sane players in the game. Everyone called. My turn.

Every player behind the raiser would have reraised if they could beat 2 kings. Should I 3 bet?

My thinking at the time: I am beat by the raiser about a third of the time. The other times he has an 8 or a heart draw. He cannot have an overpair as he would have raised preflop and would probably not raise this flop with just a 9. Of those times when I am beat, I am badly beat (2 outs or less) most of the time. Even if I have the best hand, any 4, 5, 9, 10, 8, Ace, or heart probably beats me. Not to mention other cards that may make someone 2 pair. That's a lot of cards. With only 1 player behind me who might fold to a 3 bet, I called planning on leading the turn if a safe card fell.

The rest of this hand is relatively simple:

Turn 8h7h6c Jc

I bet, 6 of the 7 others called.

River 8h7h6cJc 6d

I bet. 2 players called. I won.

The big question to me is: Even though I thought I had the best hand 67% of the time when it was my turn for the 2nd time on the flop, did I have enough pot equity to reraise? At the time, I obviously didn't think so. Now I think it is close and am not sure what the best play was.

I do not feel that manipulating the size of the pot was a factor as anyone with any outs against a pair of kings would call the turn no matter what and be correct in doing so.

All comments appreciated.

[Dynasty]

This flop isn't very good for you. I'd rather call the flop bet with the intention of check-raising the turn if a good card comes.

[Ed Miller]

I don't see any drawbacks to 3-betting here. The pot is already big, and lots of these yokels are clearly on draws... several of them probably the same draw. Might as well get their money in while you have the best of it.

I would consider smooth-calling if I could expect that doing so would allow me to raise a turn bet and face several people with calling two cold on the turn. I don't see that playing out here... so just 3-bet.

[Matt D]

You said:
"Might as well get the money in when you have the best of it."

Of course, but do I really have the best of it? During the hand, I didn't think so. That's why I didn't 3 bet. Why do you think I have the best of it? With all the outs against me, what percentage of the time must I have the best hand to give me the best of it? During the hand, I rated it at 67%. Is that enough?

Thanks for the response.

[brad]

'With all the outs against me, what percentage of the time must I have the best hand to give me the best of it? During the hand, I rated it at 67%.'

seems like you should have raised then since youre getting 6 or 7 to 1.

in any case i think its way less than 50% you need although its easier to see in the case of say nut flush draw because the 1/3 or so of the time you make it you got the nuts.

also do you mean 67% on the flop or by the river? 2 Kings i would say 2/3 on the flop but probably only like 1/3 by the river (although theres a good chance theyve got a lot of each others outs in thier hands)