Paradise Poker AKs hand and thought process

[skp]

I got to the local cardroom around 9 p.m. last night. 3 good 10-20 games going with 7 on the wait list. Too long of a wait for me so I went back home and played on Paradise...man, the games there are some much different than the ones I am accustomed to playing in...

...in any event, this was a 15-30 game and the hand occurred about 30 minutes into the session. Guys are coming in and out and I don't really have much of a read on my 2 key opponents in this hand. Obviously, I don't think they have a read on me either.

I get AcKc in the sb. UTG limps, one other MP limper, late position raise.

Obviously, 3 betting is an option. But is it clearly the better play?

Anyway, I smoothcalled. bb folds. UTG now makes it 3 bets. MP limper folds. Original raiser calls. I call.

3 way $165 pot.

What kinds of things should I be thinking about at this point?

Flop: 7h6s5d

It gets checked around.

What should I be thinking about at this point?

Turn

9d

What should I be thinking about?

I check. UTG bets. Late dude calls. I checkraise. UTG calls. Late position dude folds.

What should I be thinking about?

River: 2s

Now what?

Anyway, I bet and he calls.

Analysis?

[astroglide]

i would have 3bet preflop because i'm happy if the limpers fold or call

as for how you ended up in the hand, without a read on utg you can put him on a big suited ace/aa/kk, so capping it out of position isn't bringing you any value.

with no backdoor this flop is not pretty. were you trying to checkraise it?

checkraising the turn is okay, but following through with a bet on the river doesn't make any sense. did you think he had aqs and he was just dying to know what you held?

[Ulysses]

Obviously, 3 betting is an option. But is it clearly the better play?
I think this is a situation where either option is good as long as you play well post-flop. I think this is a good "vary your play" hand. I 3-bet about 75% here.

What kinds of things should I be thinking about at this point? (pre-flop)
Hmmmm... Looks like it was going to be 3-way either way. If I had raised, probably 3-way for 4-bets instead of 3. Now, my opponents may put me on a little smaller hand than I have.

What should I be thinking about at this point? (after flop gets checked around)
Damn, that doesn't tell me anything.

What should I be thinking about? (9 on the turn)
Hmmm... He didn't 3-bet with A8s or 88 did he? Maybe I can represent a straight and push UTG off off AK or AQ. If he has an overpair, though, he'll probably call. Maybe I should checkraise.

What should I be thinking about?
UTG called my check-raise. Either he is overplaying his AQ/AK or he has an overpair or he picked up a big flush draw. Or he actually does have an 8 and will pop me on the river. I gave it my shot, now I'll just check it down with him on the river and hope to chop w/ a stubborn AK.

I think everything was fine up to the river bet. I can't think of many hands he could have that would call the turn check-raise and fold to a river bet that you don't beat. I also can't think of many hands that call the turn check-raise and call the river that you beat.

I think he had an overpair, but maybe you chopped w/ AK or won against AdQd/AdJd.

[deadbart]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
Obviously, 3 betting is an option. But is it clearly the better play?

[/ QUOTE ]

In my experience, in Paradise $15/$30 (which is probably the game I've played the most of in my entire poker career), 3 betting is clearly better. The reason is that the players tend to be very positional, which means that while a lot of the players may fold AJ UTG, they will happily raise AT in late position, or A9s. Even without this factor, your hand is very likely to be better than the raiser's, and with this I think your hand is so much likely to be better that
A) you don't mind being headsup or closer to it, and
B) not raising for value becomes a bigger mistake, making other considerations less important.

Once UTG limp-reraises, things become very murky. I find that limp-reraises tend to be be splite pretty evenly between "legit" (AA/KK/AK) and "random" (often a medium pocket pair, but could be anything). At this point I would mostly be thinking "I hope I flop something."

When the flop gets checked around, I would have to think that both players do not have pocket pairs, with the possible exception of either one having a set. This means your hand is probably good, but after UTG bets and late folds, I don't think you can go to wrong by just giving up. Your checkraise
doesn't look at all like a bluff, but I find that I get called in pots like this the vast majority of the time. On the river, I think your bet is clear.

[astroglide]

on the river, his bet was clear?

how many hands that he beats are going to call him? how many he can't beat are going to fold? the guy called a checkraise on the turn.

[skp]

Preflop: I agree with the consensus that 3 betting is probably best.

Flop: Once UTG limp-reraised preflop, I am naturally quite concerned about a monster hand like AA/KK. I certainly was not intending on checkraising the flop. If UTG bet and teh other guy called, I would have called given pot odds. If there was a raise, I would have mucked.

Once UTG checked the flop, one has to consider that the likelihood of him having Aks or AQs has gone way up. He could also have a set. But specifically, the chances of him having AA/KK have gone way down.

I am not sure what I would have done if UTG checked and the late guy bet. Here, raising might be better than calling.

Turn: UTG's bet is extremely fishy. It looks like he is betting because no one else seems to have anything. UTG himself could not have a straight because (a) he probably would not have limp-reraised preflop with the key straight making card and (b) more importanly, if he had, he would have bet the flop. If he had a set, he probably can't 3 bet on the turn. And if he did, I have an easy fold.

My checkraise ought to be more effective (and is made more necessary) given that LP called UTG's bet. I certainly expected at least one of them (if not both of them) to fold when I checkraised.

On the river, I bet because UTG might have AK himself and might fold.

In fact, that is what he had - except that he called and we chopped the pot.

[skp]

Good analysis.

I bet the river because he might fold AK or might call with AQ. If he had an overpair, he would no doubt call. It is less clear if he would bet that overpair if I checked. So, my river bet costs me some on those occasions when he has an overpair but I have to think that I make up for it when he folds AK or calls with AQ.

[skp]

On the turn, UTG's bet was called by the late position player. I think that this therefore means that if I were to play on, I must raise. In this spot, raising or folding is better than calling.

I agree with all your other comments.

[leon]

I'm pretty familiar with paradise play, so I'll try this one.

Preflop- I'd probably three bet with the AK here and hope to get it heads up with the late raiser. That being said, UTG probably would have called or reraised given his eventually limp reraise anyways.

FLop- obviously not a good flop for you. I can make arguments for check/call, check/fold or even check/raise! That being said, I'd probably check call one bet and check fold to two. Interesting check around

Turn- I'd probably bet out, b/c that flop and turn probably hit you the hardest, from the other people's eyes. I still don't think you have the best hand. Interesting move with the check raise- UTG might have picked up a flush draw with his call. Here's what I'm thinking when he calls... "oh [censored]! WHy are you calling?"

River- he's still here and a total blank has fallen on the river. He either has you beat with a pocket pair he's not letting go of, or he's got two big suited cards (maybe AKd himself). I'm not sure about a bet here- you might force AK out but I think most of the times you're called you're beat. One last thing... I can see the monologue in your head- turn check raise "oh [censored], he called..." river bet "OH [censored]!! What the hell are you CALLING with?"

Hope it worked out.

Leon

[deadbart]

Upon review, I think "clear" is going too far. The pot is big enough that it is worth trying to win it without a showdown if possible. Also, in the mid-limit online games, I find a surprising number of people would call on the river with hands like AQ, if they got that far. AQd?

[astroglide]

aqd is one specific hand out of a jillion possible ones.

if somebody was taking it too far with a hand ak can BEAT, one would think they would bet if checked to (since they limp-reraised preflop, looked like a checkraise attempt on the flop, and took a checkraise on the turn they look strong).

if you're looking to make money off of ax here, checking is the way to play. i think the odds of them limp-reraising and then taking a checkraise and THEN folding to a bet on the river are so razor thin that it's totally not worth a bet just to try to buy the pot from ak.

betting also gives them the opportunity to bluff raise anything.

[Kevin J]

"Obviously, 3 betting is an option. But is it clearly the better play?"

Not clearly. One could make the argument that you have a big drawing hand that doesn't care how big the pot gets pre-flop or the number of opponents. But being out of position as you were, I'd usually want to think there was at least some chance to narrow the field. I say "usually" because I think sometimes it's good to show some gamble and get a little crazy with this type of hand even out of position.

Gosh, I started responding to every "What kinds of things should I be thinking about at this point?", but it just became too daunting. I'm not eloquent enough with a keyboard. I could type all day and still not come close to covering everything that comes to mind. Assuming you can recongize danger and keep yoursef out of trouble, I don't think you could go too wrong simply asking yourself at every decision point, "How best to win this pot?". For better or worse, it seems you instinctively did that and you certainly don't need me.