AA first hand.. do you call?

[ekky]

I am stumped on this. Big blind of a 5 seater $100 sng.

Payout is 250/150/100

3 people go all in and one person folds... do you call!

my math is this: AA vs 3 random hands is a 63.9% chance. so 63.9% of the time your equity is $230.. and 36.1% of the time it is zero.

0.639*230 + .36 * 0 = $146.97

However, if you fold, your equity is:

0.45*100 + 0.35 * 150 + 0.2 * 250 = $147.2

so it seems like its best to fold AA here!

What am I missing?

[adanthar]

Start off by fixing your math not to be against 3 random hands.

Also, your equity if you overcall isn't zero, because you're splitting third place money.

[runner4life7]

The main reason folding is actually good here I think is because its almost guaranteed money if you fold, provided there isnt a split pot.

With that said I would probably still call, and now that I read about splitting the 3rd place that I missed I think I call even easier.

[ekky]

how about if it is second hand and he posted a blind.. so if he loses he doesn't split 3rd place?

its purely hypothetical.. so thats why it is the assumption of random hands..

[citanul]

how about you stop worrying about the stupidest thing in the world?
drop this thread.

citanul

[ekky]

I dont understand why it is silly.

It helps to gain a theoretical understanding surely. If you cant offer anything useful, maybe you should just bypass it?

[Scuba Chuck]

CALL!
CALL!
CALL!
CALL!

Did I say call?

[citanul]

it's silly because

a) it's been asked a million jillion times before

b) you have all the tools that are necessary to answer the question available to you without asking the forum for anything

c) you apparently know how to use those tools, though you screwed up some assumptions, but now that they're set, you should be ok

d) it basically will never happen, so it's a purely hypothetical with NO bearing on any sort of situation that will happen in a real game

continuing:

when your stupid hypothetical question is not only succinctly answered by your own post but someone else gave you the methods needed to continue the work that you already know how to do yourself, and then you need to continue with "it's just a silly hypothetical" and "but what if i changed this stupid little detail by 5 chips," your question is probably useless and trite.

citanul

additionally, since you're showing work in your original posts, showing up with reasoning for the numbers you just throw in there would probably be good. you seem to have made assumptions about your finish distribution, and at least stating where they came from would be a good step.

cockbreath.

[ekky]

I am impressed with your anger management. Calling someone "cockbreath" for asking a simple question? that is highly impressive.

AA vs. 1 random hand: 85.2%
AA vs. 2 random hands: 73.4%
AA vs. 3 random hands: 63.9%
AA vs. 4 random hands: 55.9%
AA vs. 5 random hands: 49.2%
AA vs. 6 random hands: 43.6%
AA vs. 7 random hands: 38.8%
AA vs. 8 random hands: 34.7%
AA vs. 9 random hands: 31.1%


My assumptions haven't been set. They were set when the stacks were equal, and us busting out got us a share of 3rd place. Now if we bust, we dont get a share of 3rd place because we dont have the same amount of chips as the other people all in.

It happened tonite. I sat at a $100 5 seater on prima and some scandi maniacs sat down and said "ok.. all in blind?"

I got AA second hand after posting the blind.


I think if you look at the situation.. where in one we split 3rd place.. and the other we get nothing for losing.. those 5 chips count for quite a lot.

I dont know why this has caused so much anger in you, it seems entirely displaced. If you dont like it.. stick to all the other threads.

I happen to think the fact that if we lose in this case we dont split 3rd place has some bearing, given the fact that I was actually against 3 random hands.

[lorinda]

If you dont like it.. stick to all the other threads.

The problem is that all the other threads are on the same topic.

Lori

[ekky]

I have tried to search the archives.. dont get me wrong. I just thought it was an interesting dilemma given that here you dont get a split of 3rd if you lose.

I know my post count is not in its 000's so I dont get any credibility on here, but it just struck me as an interesting scenario.. and one where the math (as far as I can muster) could feasibly justify a call.

You have been great so far lorinda.. just dont see this guys one man mission to make n00bs feel like pieces of [censored]

I am sure he was a n00b with oft asked questions once in his life.

[lorinda]

It is an interesting scenario for sure but it does come up amazingly often on here.

Citanul has had enough of seeing the same stuff over and over, and is writing an FAQ.
I have sympathy with him because the same thing happened in the "Internet forum" where I ended up flaming new posters in a similar manner to his here.

Please note that it is 100% coincidence that I had an argument with the poster of this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2453509&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&fpart=1&vc=1) elsewhere today, it was just the first that came along.

FWIW a search of +fold +aces got me that thread.

Lori

[curtains]

I don't know, I find these discussions fascinating. Everytime I get dealt AA early in a sit and go, I hope and I pray that as many ridiculous things can happen before it's my turn to act that might make me want to fold.

Maybe like I have AA on the button, all players move allin before me, and SB+BB announce that they are giving birth and must immediately leave the game.

[lorinda]

I think it's the depression that each time it comes up I pray that it's a hand history where it happened, and then it never is /images/graemlins/frown.gif

To the original poster, there is an unwritten law of forum posting that seems to go something like:

The response you get is inversely proportional to the product of the response you expected and the amount of time you spent working hard on your post.
(Lorinda 5:09 for those interested)

Lori

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
I have tried to search the archives.. dont get me wrong. I just thought it was an interesting dilemma given that here you dont get a split of 3rd if you lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

first off, i'd like to point out that adanthar's post in the thread she linked to is about how i feel about fold aa preflop posts, and i think i've probably used the exact same post to respond to other fold aa preflop posts.

to follow, less than 1 minute of searching the archives would reveal such posts as this one: link (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=2416785 &Forum=,,,,,,All_Forums,,,,,,&Words=&Searchpage=5& Limit=25&Main=2415960&Search=true&where=&Name=3979 &daterange=&newerval=&newertype=&olderval=&olderty pe=&bodyprev=#Post2416785)

and curtains, yeah, like lorinda implied, when i see a hand history, i'll care about this stuff. maybe.

citanul

[ekky]

thank you for the link

In there it was mentioned that as you are on equal stacks, you share 3rd place

What i want is to understand how it works when you have less then the rest (by 1 chip or 100 chips) the fact is, if you lose, you dont split 3rd place money

I gave you the math that i think it relevant, based on the fact that if you lose, you dont get 3rd place money.

IF it is so easily provable to be wrong, why dont you show me? it is 2 seconds out of your life.

I am sure that the fact that i dont get a share of 3rd place if i lose makes a huge difference, and as per my origional post (manual way of equating ICM).. it shows how i could/should of folded A/A

I apologise that i cant post a HH... it is hard to get one from prima.

When u account for the fact that you dont split if you lose, and the fact that here, the hands were purely random (as i said in an earlier post).. why should the AA be called?

the link provided by expert was not relevant because his condesension assumed equal stacks. This is not the case here

[ekky]

or maybe you were lucky enough to bore your opponents to suicide.

I have posted the manual ICM situations.. why dont you show where the mistake is. Justify your self fulfilled hero status.


remember when yu have 5 chips less.. you dont split 3rd place... and as already reported.. the 3 people went in blind.

Now is your chance to show your math and prove this n00b wrong.

Come on excalibur.. unleash your weapon

[Nottom]

If they actually went in blind then you did the calcs, they seem right, if they says fold then sure go ahead and fold.

If you were playing online however, there is only a very slim chance that the 2nd and 3rd people actually pushed blind.

[ekky]

yeah.. but they all flooded the table at once and said in chat "lets go in blind" (bunch of scandis)

this dint happen til the second hand, coz one of them forgot to go in.

I had posted a blind and was under the starting chip count.


The link our resident hero posted was irrelevant because it assumed that the starting counts were equal. If they were equal, i can easily see its a call.

the fact that if i lost i dint share the 3rd place money, seemed important and coould justify folding AA

I dont know if this is true.. but looking at my math, it certainly seems true

All i wanted was for someone who has a clue, to look at the math, look at the scenario, and say if i was rite. I think i am rite.... and if not.. say why not


this is not youe average AA first hand of the WSOP Q... by virtue of my math (rite or wrong) it should be useful for others

[Insty]

You are right. This is a fold and it's not even close, you see why.
All the respected posters telling you you are an idiot are wrong.

There are some people who read this forum who are planning on playing in the WSOP
I think you next thread should be a scenario where they should fold AA in the first hand there, just so they don't make any mistakes.

Thankyou for your insight.

[asswasp]

What site is this?

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't know, I find these discussions fascinating. Everytime I get dealt AA early in a sit and go, I hope and I pray that as many ridiculous things can happen before it's my turn to act that might make me want to fold.

Maybe like I have AA on the button, all players move allin before me, and SB+BB announce that they are giving birth and must immediately leave the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Out of all things you could think about that will improve your poker game, creating hypothetical situations where you want to throw away AA preflop are among the most useless.

I don't know if it is lack of imagination that inevitably lead to 90% of "interesting" hypotheticals have to do with AA.

To the original poster. Fold/Call as you please. This won't have any noticable difference in your lifetime poker results. You would be better served to think about how many limpers there has to be for you to play 76s from the SB in level 3 of a SnG. That will have a much larger impact on your results than the hand you created.