a pair?

[vkotlyar]

in ken warrens book, he says that the probability of flopping an A or a K with AK is 26.7%. in Matthew Hilger's book, he says its 32%. which book is wrong?
thanks
V

[LetYouDown]

You need to further define the question. Is this ONLY a pair of A's or K's and nothing more? Is two pair/trips/fullhouse excluded? Are hands stronger than pairs, like straights, excluded?

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
in ken warrens book, he says that the probability of flopping an A or a K with AK is 26.7%. in Matthew Hilger's book, he says its 32%. which book is wrong?
thanks
V

[/ QUOTE ]

1 - 44*43*42/(50*49*48) = 32.4%.

That's for flopping at least 1 A or K. If you wanted exactly 1, that would be 6*C(44,2)/C(50,3) = 28.960%.

I couldn't find your Warren quote, but in his Winner's Guide to Texas Hold'em, 1997 edition, in the chapter "Hold'em Odds", section "Basic Odds for the Flop", p. 198, he states that when your hand is not a pair, you will flop one of your hole cards 26.939% of the time. That is incorrect.

[BruceZ]

Warren does have the 28.960% number that I computed in the chapter "How to Play Specific hands", in the table on p. 166, with the label "One Ace or your other card", and if you add the other appropriate numbers in that table, you get the other number I computed, 32.4%.