Another river bet size question

[TheWorstPlayer]

Villain is extremely loose preflop (especially in the blinds, so I probably shouldn't even be stealing here - comments?) and tricky/aggro postflop. Comments particularly on river bet size (I am really messing this up tonight) appreciated. Rest of hand also is fair game, though.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP ($92.5)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($129.1)</font>
<font color="#C00000">SB ($176.4)</font>
BB ($72.05)
UTG ($176.45)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, SB (poster) calls $3.50, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($12) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, SB calls $10, BB folds.

Turn: ($32) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, SB calls $20.

River: ($72) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>

[TrailofTears]

This one I think is too small. There is no way he is putting you on trip 8's here, and he obviously likes his AQ/KQ, so you might as well bet about 40-55.

-T

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
This one I think is too small. There is no way he is putting you on trip 8's here, and he obviously likes his AQ/KQ, so you might as well bet about 40-55.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]
Can you help me at the tables? I really could've used your help tonight. Blah. Just not a good night for me.

[Godfather80]

Hey Trail, I'm mystified by how to judge situations like the one described above. How do you know how much to bet? Simply 2/3 of the pot? What helps you round up or round down from this figure?

[Publos Nemesis]

The problem is if you put him on a flush draw then he won't call anything. He could also have KQ and be trying to play it for a small pot. I think AQ would have raised at some point. I think your bet amount depends on what you put him on. The amount you bet seems to be a compromise between flush draw and an okay queen, and it's thus fine.

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
MP ($92.5)
Hero ($129.1)
SB ($176.4)
BB ($72.05)
UTG ($176.45)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7, 8. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB (poster) calls $3.50, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($12) Q, 8, 2 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $10, SB calls $10, BB folds.

Turn: ($32) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $20, SB calls $20.

River: ($72) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $30

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Trail, I'm mystified by how to judge situations like the one described above. How do you know how much to bet? Simply 2/3 of the pot? What helps you round up or round down from this figure?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, look at how the hand played out. Villain called a raise OOP PF. That doesn't narrow his holdings down too much, but we can eliminate junk for the most part. Fine.

On the flop, he calls an almost full-pot bet, but makes no attempt to move hero off his hand. This immediately smells like AQ/KQ. Comfortable with your hand, but not enough to make a raise (or maybe he has a set and wants to wait to CR the turn).

On the turn, villain checks again, and again just smooth-calls another bet by hero (this time 2/3 pot). Villain is not buying that he is beaten.

On the river, another check by villain. There is no way that hero is beaten at this point, so that is out of the question. Now it comes down to how much will he call. He has shown the ability to call almost full pot, and then 2/3 pot, so I would assume that he is willing to call another 2/3 pot bet, and definitely at least 1/2 pot. Maybe I'm wrong here, but villain's holdings are pretty defined by this point, as is his willingness to play said holdings. There is no way that villain will call two bets with this hand but not call another mild underbet on the river.

As for rounding up or down, it depends on how the hand plays out and how likely villain is to call me down (based on reads, usually.)

Hope this helps, and I will say that I am not a brilliant player, so take this with a grain of salt please.

-T

[TheWorstPlayer]

I put him on a decent queen like QJ-Q8. I thought he would raise with KQ/AQ and would have folded weaker hands preflop. But once he called the turn, I should have realised that he was pretty attached to his hand and I should have value bet bigger.

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem is if you put him on a flush draw then he won't call anything. He could also have KQ and be trying to play it for a small pot. I think AQ would have raised at some point. I think your bet amount depends on what you put him on. The amount you bet seems to be a compromise between flush draw and an okay queen, and it thus fine.


[/ QUOTE ]

The possibility of a missed flush draw doesn't matter, since he is folding to any bet anyways. And I disagree that villain has to raise with AQ here. He is OOP and raising will not accomplish much if hero just calls. The key is his shown willingness to call bets, and his clear reserved comfort with his hand.

-T

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you help me at the tables? I really could've used your help tonight. Blah. Just not a good night for me.


[/ QUOTE ]

Look, this is ridiculous. You can't ask for my help when I respect your advice more than I do my own. Sorry about the bad night, but I'm sure it will be followed up with a very lucrative one soon.

-T

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can you help me at the tables? I really could've used your help tonight. Blah. Just not a good night for me.


[/ QUOTE ]

Look, this is ridiculous. You can't ask for my help when I respect your advice more than I do my own. Sorry about the bad night, but I'm sure it will be followed up with a very lucrative one soon.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, thanks for the vote of confidence but I've just been a little bit off tonight. Thanks for the help to clear my head.