Best Hand Against The Rockets

[FiReSiStAnT]

I saw a message right before a commerical break on a WSOP event being televised. The message asked what hand has the best odds against A/A preflop? It gave a few suggestions, I forget most of them but I do remember that after the break they said that 10/9 suited had the best odds preflop. Is this legit at all or no?

[Techsteppa]

I don't claim to be anything of a probability expert, but wouldn't 89s be better? Because with the T9s, you lose 2 straights (TJQKA) against AA.

I'm probably missing something though.

[mannika]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't claim to be anything of a probability expert, but wouldn't 89s be better? Because with the T9s, you lose 2 straights (TJQKA) against AA.

I'm probably missing something though.

[/ QUOTE ]

For AA to make the straight, it has to hit 4 cards.
- King
- Queen
- Jack
- Ten

This higher straight will beat you regardless of whether you hold T9s or 98s. HOWEVER, if you hold T9s, then you hold one of the cards that makes that higher straight, resulting in the AA having smaller odds to hit their longshot nut straight.

Using this logic, you may reason that having JTs would be better than T9s, because in this situation you hold two of the cards that the Aces need to make their straight. However, in this situation, one of your straights (AKQJT) has 2 cards taken away from it, due to the opponents aces.


Therefore, T9s is better than 98s because it takes away one of the ace's tens for the higher straight, and T9s is better than JTs because it has more cards that can make it straights.

Edit: Unfortunately I can't think of why 98s is better than 87s though, which it is. Anybody care to enlighten me?

[Josh W]

87s will beat AA the same as 76s. But with 87s, one of the straights it makes is 9TJxx...if xx = QK, then 87s loses.

With 76s, if the board comes 89Txx, and xx are JQ, then it's a chop, not a loss. As such, the best EV vs. AA is 76s.

Actually, the BEST is the other two AA. Next is 76s (EV wise), though 87s will WIN as often, it will lose slightly more frequently.

Josh

[kmvenne]

I recalled 65s being the best hand against aces. Pokerstove confirmed my initial thought, as 56s wins 23.056% of the time, as opposed to 76s at 23.0325%, 87s at 23.0209% and T9s at 22.7652% (98 being worst then all three). These numbers are assuming the suited connector don't have an ace of that suit in the rockets.

[sng-sam]

WPT did this on one of their commercial breaks and gave the answer 77 as the best hand to up against AA with

[Big Limpin']

While the mid-suited connectors are all in the same ballpark, i'd think the higher ones ought to fare betterbecause of obscure counterfieting situations.

Like if you have 65s on a 66777 board
Or 65s on a 5677x board

Just having higher ranks on your cards must inherently decrease the likelyhood of this happening, wouldnt it? Sure it still h appens, but a teesny bit less likely?

[Koss]

I think the reason it's 56s is because it removes the ability of AA to make a wheel. In theory 67s has the same effect. I don't understand it 100%, but every simulation program I've seen shows 56s to have the best chance against AA.

[MixedNuts]

Here are the results from pokerstove (pokerstove.com)

1,712,304 games 0.031 secs 55,235,612 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 78.2833 % [ 00.78 00.00 ] { A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif }
Hand 2: 21.7167 % [ 00.22 00.00 ] { J/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif }

Hand 1: 77.2348 % [ 00.77 00.00 ] { A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif }
Hand 2: 22.7652 % [ 00.23 00.00 ] { T/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/spade.gif }

Hand 1: 77.3769 % [ 00.77 00.00 ] { A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif }
Hand 2: 22.6231 % [ 00.22 00.00 ] { 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif8/images/graemlins/spade.gif }

Hand 1: 76.9440 % [ 00.77 00.00 ] { A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif }
Hand 2: 23.0560 % [ 00.23 00.00 ] { 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif5/images/graemlins/spade.gif }

Hand 1: 79.8226 % [ 00.80 00.00 ] { A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif }
Hand 2: 20.1774 % [ 00.20 00.00 ] { 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif7/images/graemlins/heart.gif }

looks like they are all the same to me (4:1)
/images/graemlins/wink.gif

[RiverDood]

the other 2 aces

[alThor]

[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove confirmed my initial thought, as 56s wins 23.056% of the time, as opposed to 76s at 23.0325%

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually those are equities; 76s actually wins more often: on 55 (out of 1712304) more boards than 56s does, but 56s ties on 916 more boards than 76s does, making it better overall.

I was surprised by this.

alThor

[M.B.E.]

When you hold 65, it is a third more likely for the board to come JT987 or T9876 than when you hold 76. That explains the extra ties, resulting in higher pot equity (heads-up against A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif) for 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif than 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

This has been discussed here many times before.

[marv]

Here's a similar but different question:
Suppose you get to choose both your hole cards and that of your oppo, and want to maximize the probability that you win.

What cards should you choose?

Marv

[M.B.E.]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Number=1871808