Let the new NL600 era begin...the first problem hand

[Garland]

My first foray into NL600. I'll have to stay at Party (+skins) before heading back to Ultimate Bet.

This may be a typical scenario, but still annoying:

Villian is BB. His stats for 760 hands are: VP$IP = 16.97, BB/100 = 11.56, PF Raise % = 2.63. Aggression factors: Overall = 0.66, Flop = 2.33, Turn = 3.00, River = 1.17.

What's your move?

Garland

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB ($600)
UTG ($658)
UTG+1 ($685.1)
UTG+2 ($572.8)
MP1 ($122.2)
MP2 ($593)
MP3 ($594)
CO ($1232.85)
Button ($794.35)
Garland ($793.6)

Preflop: Garland is SB with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Garland posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls $6, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Garland (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($18) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Garland bets $12</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $40</font>, MP1 folds, Garland ????

[DOTTT]

Sorry don't know what all those PT stats mean, but my routine play in this situation is to call and lead out on the turn for $70.

Edit: $70

[Dr. Strangelove]

and fold.

[res1cue]

I don't know what all those VP stats mean either
but without having any read on the players available, I would say fold that hand. The BB got a BB special. From my expericence the biggest pots won/lost(on the looser's side) are limped ones.
later

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry don't know what all those PT stats mean

[/ QUOTE ]

PokerTracker is a great, great tool. I think everyone should use it. (*gasp*, what am I saying??...what have I done???

VP$IP means the percentage of the time I voluntarily put money into the pot. For example, 20% and below is considered pretty tight, whereas 30%+ is fairly loose.

PF Raise % = Preflop Raise %. This determines how frequently a person raises preflop. If the percent is around 3-4%, it's fairly standard. 5%+ is considered to be fairly loose.

BB/100 is the number of big bets won per 100 hands (winrate). Since "big bet" is a fixed term only for limit hold em', they use twice the size of the big blind as their definition. For example, we're playing $3/$6 $600 max and my opponent has a winrate of 11 BB/100. This means that he wins 11x$12 or $132 for every 100 hands he plays. If I have a lot of hands on the player, I can determine if he's a long-term winner or not.

AF = Aggression Factor is how aggressive or passive the opponent is. I don't want to get into the formula, but in general it's 0.70 or less = passive. More than 1.5 = aggressive.

Garland

[res1cue]

thanks for all that info /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[DOTTT]

Thanks for clearing that up. I've had PT for a while now but only used it to playback some of my hands, I started getting into it but took a break from online poker. Anyway your numbers show you have a tight opponent on your hands who is most likely holding two pair, although you probably cant rule out A7. This makes your decision a little bit harder, on one side you have a concealed hand, that might be able to stack up 75 if the 2 pairs or a 9 hits, on the other hand you also cant rule him having a set or an overpair such as TT or JJ. So, I'm going to say fold, because you might be trapping yourself here. Against a loose or average player, I like the line I first posted.

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
This makes your decision a little bit harder, on one side you have a concealed hand, that might be able to stack up 75 if the 2 pairs or a 9 hits

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the problem is: how do you know a 2 pairing doesn't *help* a blind hand?

Thanks for your thoughts.

Garland

[iceman5]

I would most likely fold and after seeing his aggression numbers, I would fold for sure.

My flop aggression numbers are more than double what his are. If hes raising that flop from the blind, I think you are in big trouble

[Garland]

I folded.

I looked at the opponent's preflop stats, my position, my options and that was enough for me to fold.

Then I looked at my opponent's BB/100, and I saw that he was a winning player. Granted, I don't have a ton of hands, but I figured he wasn't a sucker too, and the "calling" and "reraising" options were bad propositions driving home the fold for me.

Garland

[steaknshake925]

yes i think this fold is fairly standard. i would also fold with no reads.

[JKratzer]

[ QUOTE ]
Then I looked at my opponent's BB/100, and I saw that he was a winning player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you will almost never have anywhere close to enough hands to determine if a player is winning or not I have actually removed this stat from those displayed and don't pay it any mind whatsoever. Try not to let this stat affect your decisions.

peace,
JKratzer

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
Because you will almost never have anywhere close to enough hands to determine if a player is winning or not I have actually removed this stat from those displayed and don't pay it any mind whatsoever. Try not to let this stat affect your decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. What if I saw the player make great reads/ calls/raises? Supplement the data?

Can't you tell if the player is a big time loser as well with the way he plays his cards with the BB/100 winrate displayed?

I guess what I'm saying is, I feel it's ok to leave that BB/100 hands on the screen as long as you're using this data to supplement your read on the player based on his showdowns, but not be entirely dependent on it.

Garland

[Rotating Rabbit]

This is one of those situations where you could be ahead a large percentage of the time, but its probably still a net loser to play.

[JKratzer]

If you're using it as a supplement, then I guess it's fine to leave up. You just need to recognize when the BB/100 is NOT indicative of their play and remember. Usually for me by that point I don't need the stat to remember. However you like is fine of course, but too many people I fear put faith in that stat just because it's displayed by default.

[excession]

The useful stats here is PRR % 2.6 and the medium aggression on the flop.
The other stat that you will need to pull up he stats in PT itself for (why you should have the main PT window open too) is how often he re-raises on the flop.

A PFR of less than 3% usually indicates someone who doesn't raise JJ or TT pre-flop. He could easily have those hands.

He could also beat you if he has setted or hit a random 2 pair on the flop.

He seems to be a tight player who isn't particularly maniacal.

You haven't committed much to the pot, and don't really know where you are. I would back out and wait for a better spot.

[turnipmonster]

[ QUOTE ]
This is one of those situations where you could be ahead a large percentage of the time, but its probably still a net loser to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

[RiverFenix]

Not to be an ass, but why are people commenting in this forum when they dont know what basic poker stats are/mean?