Working out the ICM.. help please

[ekky]

Hi there.

I am confused as to how exactly I work out the ICM in this spot.. and any help/links would be really appreciated. (i tried to use the search function but I could not get any results)

This is the situation.

PRE FLOP:

ME 6K
X 6K
Z 3K

in the big blind.. i call a raise from X of 1500 with A5 clubs.

Making the pot 3k pre flop.. with me and X equal of 4500 in terms of remaining chips.

flop is K/9/7 with 2 clubs. He bets 4500. I have to call 4500 to win 7500...so my pot equity is 1:1.66.. meaning I need to win 37.5% of the time to make this break even

(just based on linear EV.. no chip value discrepancies accounted for)

Now.. if I assume my Ace is an out.. I have 12 outs.. making me a 45% chance to improve and win. so 45% vs 37.5% I should call rite?

But with 3 people left.. does the ICM support a call or a fold??

If someone could possibly spare 5 min to explain it, I would be eternally grateful.

I apologise if this is incorrect activity, but I did try to search but that didn't provide fulsome results

thanks in advance

[lorinda]

[ QUOTE ]
flop is K/9/7 with 2 clubs. He bets 4500. I have to call 4500 to win 7500...so my pot equity is 1:1.66.. meaning I need to win 37.5% of the time to make this break even

[/ QUOTE ]

This is where you are going wrong.

Throw this bit away and let the ICM tell you what you need.
The ICM calculates your "effective pot odds" if you like. Be aware that it doesn't take into account things like one player with 1 chip on the bubble, so you'll still need to use some wit at times.

Put in the number of chips everyone has if you fold, and the number of chips if you call and win and, if any left, the number if you call and lose.

I haven't looked at the specifics of your case here, but you'll get numbers like....

Call/Win = 0.42
Call/Lose = 0
Fold = 0.14

In this case you would need to only win once in three for a call to be break even (The three results being .42/0/0).

After that you just need to judge how often you're going to win.

Lori

[ekky]

http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html

I got this link.. but I couldn't really make too much sense of it..

Is there a site that shows you how to work it out manually? I would like to understand how it works (like pokerstove) before becoming a slave to the automated regime :0)

thanks for your reply

[lorinda]

Type 6000 6000 and 3000 into the left hand column.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Stack sizes $EV
6000 Stack 1 0.3567
6000 Stack 2 0.3567
3000 Stack 3 0.2867
</pre><hr />

This means that in an $11 you are worth $35.67 if you have a 6000 stack, and $28.67 with a 3000 stack.

If you fold having both put in 1500....

7500...... $38.39
4500 (you) $32.75
3000... .. $28.86

So if you fold, you are worth $32.75 still

If you call and win...

9000 (you)... $45
3000 ... $35

If you call and lose, you are worth $20 (third place)

So if you fold, you are always worth $32.75, and if you call and win you are worth $45. If you fold you are worth $20.

Therefore if you call you are risking $11.75 ($32.75 - $20) against $12.25 (45-32.75) so you need to be almost even money to call.

Lori

[ekky]

If I call and win.. i would have 12,000 to the shorties 3000... this would be 80%

so that would make my position $20 + (80% of $80) = $64 rite?

but this is worth more then first place?

I looked at the web-page on the "how to use it" guide.. but that example was for pre flop with 4 people.. I just couldn't figure out how to do it post flop with 3 people.. when it pays top 3.

I am sorry for the stupidity.. normally I am quite adept at math but I just dont "get" this at the mo.

(i found some links but they were mainly pre flop on the bubble.. not post bubble)

[lorinda]

If I call and win.. i would have 12,000 to the shorties 3000... this would be 80%

so that would make my position $20 + (80% of $80) = $64 rite?


My error.

You don't need to add the 20, it does that for you, but you need to be aware that if you get knocked out three handed you get $20.

Normally you would use this on the bubble, where you would get $0 if you were eliminated.

Back to the 80% example, the ICM gives you $46 and your opponent $34.

You can see this is correct as you are guaranteed $30 and are playing for an extra $20.
He has 20% of this $20, or $4 as well as his $30 for second place = $24

You have the 80%, or $16, as well as your $30 which gives the $46.

Heads up is a bad example, as chips equals monetary value heads up.

Try putting in all ten players as 1500 chips, and then put in one with 3000 and eight others at 1500 (to represent someone getting eliminated first hand)
You will see that folding and letting people fight actually has a little value.

Lori

[ekky]

ok.. so lets see what is what:

If I call and lose:

My position is worth $20

If I call and win:

My position is worth $46

If I fold.. My position is worth $32.75


so..lets say in the example I have a 45% chance of winning.

I am (0.45 * $46)+(0.55* $20)= $31.70.. so is this correct to say that a call here is worth $31.70.. therefore I should fold?

[lorinda]

I am (0.45 * $46)+(0.55* $20)= $31.70.. so is this correct to say that a call here is worth $31.70.. therefore I should fold?

I'm 95% sure this is correct. You approach it from a different angle to me so it is possible I'm misunderstanding, but yes, I think it's right. If it's not, you certainly understand the logic now.

Lori

[ekky]

thank you so much for your time lorinda.. it is much appreciated.

If someone else could chirp in to confirm it 100%.. I would be extremely pleased.

Thanks once again, you have been stellar.

[ekky]

I apologise for this un-needed bump... it causes clutter I know

My mind is going dead:

(X*230) + (1-x*100) = $163.75

$163.75 is the EV of folding.. so it has to be the EV of calling to be break even... therefore X has to be a certain percentage of the time you will win the pot.

I cant for the life of me remember how to solve for X :0(

I asked over at the probability forum but it seems kinda dead there

If someone would take a minute to assist.. I promise you I wont clutter up the forum again.

Apologies

[ekky]

nevermind.. I got it sorted

apols and have a nice evening