Sustainable win rate

[zgall1]

What is the approximate highest possible sustainable win rate at online 1/2 (in BB/100)? My friend is running at an insane rate and I know he is a good player and I just want to know how much he can ultimately expect to drop off.

[Isura]

3 BB/100 at Party. THe rake is too high there.
Maybe higher at other places.

[Grail]

2-3BB/100 is generally considered very good. Anything over 3BB/100 is not sustainable at anything 1/2 and up.

Don't forget that you might get lucky and run very hot for quite while at times. I had a recent very short term crazy run. It was a little over 1k hands, and I was up something like 18bb/100.

You can not only count the good swings, but must count all hands played for this number to have any meaning at all.

Quick real world examples

35k Total hands played at Party over the last 6-7 weeks.

Over my first 5k hands I was running at 5.4BB/100
Over my last 3k hands I'm running at 7.1BB/100
Over my last 9k hands I’m running at 4.5BB/100
Over one 10k stretch I was running at –1.8BB/100
Over all 35k hands I'm running at 2.7BB/100

-G

[felix83]

Sounds like your friend is really tall. I'd say anyone over 6'6 can't sustain a rate over 1 BB/100.

[bottomset]

noone should ever play long enough at 1/2 to find out

[stlip]

I thought the official "Ed Miller crushing the micro limits (why aren't you guys)" target was 4BB/100.

I've got 25k+ hands at Party 1/2 at 4.0x, which is not enough hands to prove this is my sustainable win rate, but perhaps enough to identify it as a prime suspect.

To the poster who said the rake at 1/2 is too high, how are you measuring this? A high percentage of hands at 1/2 are raked, which is great for clearing bonuses. But the avg. rake/avg. pot seemed to me a much greater problem for .50/1.

According to my PT database (and my 2/4 sample size is small so I would welcome comparable figures from more experienced 2/4 players) here is what I've seen:

.50/1 rake 4.8 percent
1/2 rake 3.9 percent
2/4 rake 3.5 percent

[zgall1]

Can someone link me to that Ed Miller post? I can't seem to find it in the search.

[gharp]

Here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=462860&page=0&view=collap sed&sb=7&o=14&fpart=1)

It's in the FAQ too

[kapw7]

I had 2000 BB/100. Over 1 hand.
It's (1/2 PP full) not worth playing any more hands than that.

Actually I have 0.37 BB/100 over 1022 hands. What a waste of time!