A decision I have to make with what seems like nearly every set I hit

[ClaytonN]

Please read the 1st post and then make your own reply, i.e grunching.

Typical juicy ~%40 PS 1/2 game

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero ???

[ClaytonN]

How the hand played out:

I decided to call and jam any safe card on the turn

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, MP2 folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG calls.

River: (12 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 16 BB

[lionhorse]

calls, going for overcalls, reraising if raised.

Raises/leads if a blank hits the turn

[Shillx]

Raise this all day long if you like money. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[therockofgibraltar]

I usually raise in these situations. If there is a flush draw, they are not gona fold --&gt; might as well get the money in the pot while you can.

Now I go and read Shillx answer and probably find out that raising is wrong! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[olavfo]

*Grunching*

Raise and hope there's a flush draw out there. UTG has something so he will very likely pay you off to the river. I'd be satisfied with that.

olavfo

[Schwartzy61]

I raise here. Don't want straight and flush draws to come along cheaply. No sense calling and letting them catch a heart or straight card.

If it was a less coordinated flop I would be more inclined to call and go for a slowplay.

[iNsChris]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise here. Don't want straight and flush draws to come along cheaply. No sense calling and letting them catch a heart or straight card.

If it was a less coordinated flop I would be more inclined to call and go for a slowplay.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ditto.

[chiachu]

Im going to raise this everytime because of the /images/graemlins/heart.gif's.
Id call if it were a rainbow board with no likely straight draws (not very often).

[grjr]

This would apply more if we had a medium /images/graemlins/heart.gif in our hand but I'm going to throw it out there anyways. If there are 2 to a suit on the flop I don't like letting the A or K of that suit hang around for one small bet. If another /images/graemlins/heart.gif hits the turn it doesn't matter what you do you won't get rid of them. I like to raise the flop as much as I can.

Maybe this only worries me because I like back door draws so much but how many $40 or $50 pots do you want to lose all because someone (me-for instance)took a flyer with the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif for one cheap bet? Of course this isn't the only reason to raise the flop as Shill points out but it's a factor that maybe not a lot of people think about.

If nobody else agrees with me on this that's fine. It won't be the first (or last) time. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Grail]

Call the flop planing to raise like mad on the expensive streets. If the board pairs just go nuts. Go mostly nuts even if it doesn't pair. Your good here something like 75% of the time.

You won't get rid of a decent FD with a flop raise anyway.

-G

[SteveM]

(grunching)

I raise this every single time - no question. Especially important with the 2 hearts, but I'd still raise a rainbow flop here, too. Now I'll read the other responses to see if I'm wrong.

[SocialWelfareIV]

I like the call here. You're not going to get /images/graemlins/heart.gifs or T9 to fold no matter what the action is, so you need to worry about getting as much money in the pot as possible. With three behind me to act, I let them see a turn cheap. I raise any turn card, regardless of whether it completes a flush or straight.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
*Grunching*

Raise and hope there's a flush draw out there. UTG has something so he will very likely pay you off to the river. I'd be satisfied with that.

olavfo

[/ QUOTE ]

How is waiting till the turn bad if there is a flush draw out?

Krishan

[Sarge85]

Raise.

Raise.

Then Raise some more.

You're obviously thinking about the blinds coming along aren't you. Will your raise scare them out?

Listen - there's no reason they are going to think they won't call the one bet - so you might as well get your money in there now, and not worry about overcalls, if there were more potential callers, then sure hash it out a little bit, but if you just call, and one of them folds, your not really coming out any further ahead.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[olavfo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
*Grunching*

Raise and hope there's a flush draw out there. UTG has something so he will very likely pay you off to the river. I'd be satisfied with that.

olavfo

[/ QUOTE ]

How is waiting till the turn bad if there is a flush draw out?

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]
Did I say it was? I would still raise on the flop though, to cut down the pot odds for all kinds of other weak drawing hands. I can't be sure I'll get a chance to raise on the turn, so I do it now.

olavfo

[Sarge85]

Am I the only one who thinks the potential flush draw is [b]totally irrelevant./[b]

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[bozlax]

I call, planning to bet/raise the turn. You're acting in the middle of the pack, and even if you raise a 2-flush has odds to call. Since there was no PFR, I'm thinking there won't be a raise on the flop, so the pot'll be 5 BB on the turn, and the action happens the same you can make the odds 4-1 with only one card to come instead of two.

That said, if anybody raises the flop, you ram-n-jam. You've got the best hand (JJ would've raised PF) and odds to draw the boat.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Im going to raise this everytime because of the /images/graemlins/heart.gif's.
Id call if it were a rainbow board with no likely straight draws (not very often).

[/ QUOTE ]

But raising the flop doesn't make the odds wrong for 2 hearts to call.

[johnc]

Raise. UTG's most likely got TP?K, J8, flush draw, raise to protect.

Edit: didn't read the 2nd post. Raise the flop.

[bozlax]

I think it's very relevant. It means that raising the flop might be pumping somebody else's flush draw for them. OTOH, if somebody else raises (pumping their own draw) then you can go nuts and charge them for their insolence. Or, with no flop raise, punish them on the turn when the bets are doubled.

[jaym]

(grunch)
Raises. I might wait for a safe turn card if it is 3-bet behind me.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise. UTG's most likely got TP?K, J8, flush draw, raise to protect.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only one you're really worried about here is the flush draw, and raising the flop doesn't protect you against it.

[johnc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
*Grunching*

Raise and hope there's a flush draw out there. UTG has something so he will very likely pay you off to the river. I'd be satisfied with that.

olavfo

[/ QUOTE ]

How is waiting till the turn bad if there is a flush draw out?

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

He won't have the odds to draw if raised, it's -EV for him to call.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
*Grunching*

Raise and hope there's a flush draw out there. UTG has something so he will very likely pay you off to the river. I'd be satisfied with that.

olavfo

[/ QUOTE ]

How is waiting till the turn bad if there is a flush draw out?

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]
Did I say it was? I would still raise on the flop though, to cut down the pot odds for all kinds of other weak drawing hands. I can't be sure I'll get a chance to raise on the turn, so I do it now.

olavfo

[/ QUOTE ]

Gee... I'd really hate for that bottom pair to pick up two pair or trips on the turn in a 6 SB pot. What a disaster.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Edit: didn't read the 2nd post. Raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP's second post shouldn't affect how you think about the hand. He gave you all the information you needed in the first one.

[Disconnected]

[ QUOTE ]
I would still raise on the flop though, to cut down the pot odds for all kinds of other weak drawing hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not arguing about whether to raise the flop, but we're not doing it to chase out weak drawing hands -- it is more of a raise for value, right?

If the strong drawing hands would fold incorrectly, that also wouldn't be a bad thing.

[flyangler]

Grunching here:
I would definitely bet hoping to push out the drawing hand and continue to hammer it unless a 4th /images/graemlins/heart.gif falls on the river. Isn't there an old saying that if you lose with a set and don't lose a lot of $, then you didn't play it right? With no read I am willing to guess he has KJ or AJ.

[gopnik]

I'd raise, too many people in the pot to slow play.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
He won't have the odds to draw if raised, it's -EV for him to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

9 cards, twice, makes him a 2-1 dog to make his hand by the river, and raising only makes the pot odds 4-1. Yeah, it's +EV to make that call.

[johnc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Im going to raise this everytime because of the /images/graemlins/heart.gif's.
Id call if it were a rainbow board with no likely straight draws (not very often).

[/ QUOTE ]

But raising the flop doesn't make the odds wrong for 2 hearts to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

In terms of implied odds you're correct but can you really be 100% sure he's betting hearts in which case you'd have to muck your set to a turn heart (that doesn't pair the board). I couldn't be that sure to fold what could be the best hand.

[Disconnected]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's very relevant. It means that raising the flop might be pumping somebody else's flush draw for them. OTOH, if somebody else raises (pumping their own draw) then you can go nuts and charge them for their insolence. Or, with no flop raise, punish them on the turn when the bets are doubled.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also think the flush draw is relevant, because you can raise here without blowing away the field. But I don't understand why you'd only punish a flush draw if they're the ones to bet, why wouldn't you want to punish it no matter who bets?

While it is totally right to pump your own flush draw, it's even better to get bets into the pot when you have the best hand against a flush draw, with a lot of outs to beat the flush, IF the flush comes in. The flush draw has the equity to bet, but they still don't have as much equity as we do with out set.

[Disconnected]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who thinks the potential flush draw is totally irrelevant./

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

It's relevant here because with an unraised pot, you'll blow away the field with the raise on a drawless board. If the pot were bigger, then I think whether there are draws on the board are irrelevant -- we'll be raising. But in this particular situation, the board texture matters, right?

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise. UTG's most likely got TP?K, J8, flush draw, raise to protect.

The only one you're really worried about here is the flush draw, and raising the flop doesn't protect you against it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Listen, why are we worried about a flush draw? I'm a 3:1 favorite against a flush draw. (If it is even there)
We’re not raising to protect – we’re raising because we have a very strong hand.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV

8s 8c 737 74.44 253 25.56 0 0.00 0.744
Ah 2h 253 25.56 737 74.44 0 0.00 0.256


I want the flush draw there calling
I want the flush draw to ram and jam.
I want someone holding a Jack to call
I want as many bets in this hand as possible.

The thing is – I don’t know that those hands are out there. The blinds may fold for even just one bet if I smooth call. What have I gained? Oh, but I could pop him on the turn – sure, if the flop bettor leads out I can. That doesn’t always happen though.

I see a lot of people talking about waiting for a safe card on the turn --- That is just too weak. This isn’t a vulnerable top pair type of hand. Get your bets in the middle.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

edit: For the record, i realize my last paragraph may leave the wrong impression. TPTK or an Overpair should be raising this flop - based on how the action went

Do you see why? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
In terms of implied odds you're correct but can you really be 100% sure he's betting hearts in which case you'd have to muck your set to a turn heart (that doesn't pair the board). I couldn't be that sure to fold what could be the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm right in terms of immediate odds. Any hand after you holding 2 hearts is correct to call 2 cold on this flop, since they're a 2-1 dog to hit their flush and they're getting 4-1 from the pot.

The only other hand you're worried about is JJ. Everything else you've got beat at this point. I'm willing to give everyone else a cheap look at the turn rather than pumping the flush draw for whoever's holding it.

And, I'm not folding when the third /images/graemlins/heart.gif falls on the turn. I'm not sure enough that I'm beat, and I've got 10 outs to a boat or better. But, I won't bet/raise a /images/graemlins/heart.gif on the turn, whereas I will bet/raise any other card.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
This would apply more if we had a medium /images/graemlins/heart.gif in our hand but I'm going to throw it out there anyways. If there are 2 to a suit on the flop I don't like letting the A or K of that suit hang around for one small bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with raising the flop, but not for this reason. I desperately want my opponents to call with their 1.5-outer.

If you're routinely making this call, it's a pretty big leak.

[Pov]

You've got a primo hand and you're looking to get the most money you can into this pot. I don't think raising will discourage very many hands from calling that would have called one bet so you might as well do it and get the money in there.

However, one reason to just call in my mind is to get the UTG player to bet into you again on the turn. Assuming it is not a flush card you can raise at that time to force the flush draws into making a bad call. If it is the flush card you can either just call getting odds on your boat draw or raise to drive out one card 4 flushes depending upon your feel.

Personally, I think go ahead and raise now mainly because a) you're a big favorite against pretty much everything but JJ and Th9h and fish making dumb calls is where you make your money at this level and b) you don't know that smooth calling is going to get you any more calls than raising would. You could easily get read for the flush draw yourself and UTG will bet into you again anyway. That happens to me all the time and it is a very good thing. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

edit: just to be clear, you're still a fav over the Th9h, just not a big one and there is no reason to think it's out there anyway - just trying to be thorough /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Marc Desjardins]

hero raise, there's two straight card and two flush card, can't slowplay...

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
*Grunching*

Raise and hope there's a flush draw out there. UTG has something so he will very likely pay you off to the river. I'd be satisfied with that.

olavfo

[/ QUOTE ]

How is waiting till the turn bad if there is a flush draw out?

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

He won't have the odds to draw if raised, it's -EV for him to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm afraid you are completely wrong. He will still have odds to call. It's still +EV.

Krishan

[afk]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm right in terms of immediate odds. Any hand after you holding 2 hearts is correct to call 2 cold on this flop, since they're a 2-1 dog to hit their flush and they're getting 4-1 from the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, they are correct to call because if anyone were to never fold a flush draw and low limit poker they wouldn't be making much of a mistake at all.

However saying that it's +EV because they are gettting 4:1 immediately on a 2:1 draw by the river is incorrect because you haven't considered any bets they will have to put in on the turn - or any bets they will receive when they hit and win for that matter. It's not as simple as you're making it out to be. This is basic effective and implied odds.

For flush draws it's pretty straight forward since you can basically never fold in a loose game and still make it profitable, but for weaker draws you can't consider your odds to hit by the river and compare to your immediate pot odds. You have to take in to account further bets.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
*Grunching*

Raise and hope there's a flush draw out there. UTG has something so he will very likely pay you off to the river. I'd be satisfied with that.

olavfo

[/ QUOTE ]

How is waiting till the turn bad if there is a flush draw out?

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]
Did I say it was? I would still raise on the flop though, to cut down the pot odds for all kinds of other weak drawing hands.

olavfo

[/ QUOTE ]

There aren't many weak drawing hands that we want to fold.

Krishan

[McNeese72]

[ QUOTE ]
Please read the 1st post and then make your own reply, i.e grunching.

Typical juicy ~%40 PS 1/2 game

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a novice but I'll try my hand at grunching. I'd probably play this hand fast. If a scare card (J or a heart) hits on the turn or the river and UTG reraises me, then I'd call down. Of course, with my luck, UTG already has JJ. :-) But I'm a novice, what do I know. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Pov]

[ QUOTE ]
If a scare card (J or a heart) hits on the turn or the river and UTG reraises me, then I'd call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't be scared of another J. It gives you a boat and J3 or J8 are unlikely. It's actually one of the best cards that could come for you on the turn IMO as now you'll get paid off big by trips and flush draws both.

[bozlax]

Yep. Mea clupa. Screaming kids affect my ability to analyze hands.

But, in fact, now that I've muzzled the kids, if you raise the flop and everybody stays in (including the putative flush draw), and then the action is the same on the turn, the flush draw is still right to stay because now he's getting 5-1 to call two cold with one to come. If you call the flop but raise the turn, it's only 4-1.

I know, I know...too small a difference for micro players to notice.

However, some of the other posts have me changing my stance. I was previously only thinking about this in terms of protecting our hand, but of course our set has a huge equity advantage over a flush draw. I still prefer calling the flop and popping the turn (I'd really love it if a non-heart ace fell on the turn and the guy on my right bet into me again), but I think it's closer, now.

[Mike Z]

grunching,
I would call on the flop and raise on the turn. I would go into call down mode if another heart hits the board.

[SocialWelfareIV]

[ QUOTE ]


PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

If you were one of the 3 players to act after the hero, what are you calling with if it's one to you? What if it's two? Even good players will throw in a single bet here when they are nearly drawing dead. Give them a chance to and then pop the turn.

[McNeese72]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If a scare card (J or a heart) hits on the turn or the river and UTG reraises me, then I'd call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't be scared of another J. It gives you a boat and J3 or J8 are unlikely. It's actually one of the best cards that could come for you on the turn IMO as now you'll get paid off big by trips and flush draws both.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, I overlooked that,duh. Probably would have caught that at the table, but right now looking at messages is harder for me than looking at the board on the table.

[bubbahotep]

grunching...

Raise. You get burned more times than not when you drag these out.

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif
Flop: (5 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]
Reraise. You have a flush and straight draw board. I would not want to let them draw out on me cheaply. This will also cause the gutshot and backdoor people to fold or cause them to make an even bigger mistake by calling.

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise. UTG's most likely got TP?K, J8, flush draw, raise to protect.

[/ QUOTE ]
The only one you're really worried about here is the flush draw, and raising the flop doesn't protect you against it.

[/ QUOTE ]
The raise against flush (and straight) draws is for value. You can however, protect against backdoor flush draws and gutshots, methinks.

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
grunching,
I would call on the flop and raise on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe no one else will bet the turn.

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
grunching,
I would call on the flop and raise on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe no one else will bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

....finally.....

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
I won't bet/raise a /images/graemlins/heart.gif on the turn, whereas I will bet/raise any other card.

[/ QUOTE ]
I almost always bet when the third to a suit falls because I read it was correct to do so. It is in SSH if I'm not mistaken.