Is this too weak or saving bets?

[ClaytonN]

Felt like the right move:

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (7 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG folds, Hero folds, CO folds.

Final Pot: 8 BB

[Shillx]

Err no this fold probably isn't correct against most opponents. The tough choice here is between calling or raising. I would probably raise.

Brad

[ClaytonN]

I'm making the effort to take more time in analyzing hands in the heat of the moment. Raising didn't feel right.

I couldn't make a good enough range of hands to put villain on, given the way he played the hand.

Namely, cold call, check/call, and wake up and bet?

[kapw7]

It's hard (and weak) to fold getting 8:1 without very good reads. If you don't fold raising is a good idea so you can make enough money for the times he is semibluffing.

[ClaytonN]

Raising definitely seems better than calling.

It shoves CO out of the hand and narrows the range of hands villain is on (namely, made hand or semibluff).

Were I to call, I guarantee he would bet again into the river.

There's math here. *gets pencil.

[matt42s]

am I missing something? reads perhaps?
you're offered 8:1, may still be ahead, 5 clean-ish outs.
I think there is a case for a raise and check behind UI but I'd want to know more about him.

[ClaytonN]

I have no reads

However, I have a good feeling about his range of hands.

Either he hit his king or picked up a straight/flush draw.

I just couldn't convince myself to raise. I definitely was not going to call.

[Shillx]

Were I to call, I guarantee he would bet again into the river.

This is actually a good reason to just call. The time to raise is when he will check/fold the river when he misses his draw (if that is what he has). If he will always bluff a missed draw on the river, I like calling down here.

Brad

[SteveL91]

Against a "typical" PS 1/2 Full Ring player, I'd say raise. The odds are there to chase your five outer, and the average player will likely end up checking to you on the river if you raise. here. I've been finding raising the turn for a free showdown is pretty effective.

[Schwartzy61]

There are many ways to look at his actions.

He hit a set on the flop and is slowplaying, seeing you bet the flop he could assume you are betting overcards. Seeing a K hit on the turn he assumes you probably have hit a K and will now pay off his slowplayed set possibly raising him.

He cold called with a K high hand not KJ. He calls your bet on the flop hoping to hit another card. He does so and bets into you. He can either have a raggedy two pair K7, K4, or just top pair kings.

He cold calls with KJ and slowplays a flop being scared that you have him dominated. Maybe he's just passive without two pair or better. He hits his second pair on the turn and will now become aggressive. thinking he has you trapped with top pair to his two pair.

He cold calls with AK and doesn't wanna invest bets in a pot where he misses. He hits his TPTK on the turn and bets into someone who bet a J high flop.

He's bluffing, thinks you have overcards to the flop or flopped TPTK and is gambling that you will fold your hand when the overcard hits, as you did.

He has QT, calls a flop with an overcard and backdoor straight draw. He lands an open ended straight draw on the turn and bets into someone possibly betting only overcards. Here if you hit the ace to improve you lose and may not realize it, but you are currently ahead and may not realize it either.

This is where a read really helps you narrow down his hand. That being said I think a raggedy two pair or top pair kings hand are the most likely and would lead me to call the turn and hope for an ace with a jack also possibly giving me the best hand. This is a very close decision between calling and folding. Unless you can put him on a pretty big bluff here I don't see raising really being +EV. In calling I would be assuming he is gonna pay off two BB on the river when an A or J hits, he bets into me, I raise he calls. If this isn't as likely it probably turns this into a folding situation. Again that would be very read dependent.

With no reads this turns into a drawing situation for me. If I don't hit two pair or better on the river I'm out...

[stlip]

[ QUOTE ]
Felt like the right move

[/ QUOTE ]

How could it?

If he's on a draw you're ahead. If he's got a K you've got implied pot odds that still justify a call.

I also don't know how many times you want people to see you raise preflop, bet the flop and then fold to one bet. Frankly, if you would do it with this hand, I'm sure it's a somewhat standard line from you. Some players are going to notice that and hurt you with it.

Without reads, and in the 1/2 games I play in on Party, I don't see what purpose a turn raise serves here. Being 3-bet would be a disaster. It's not really a free card play because CO is behind you. CO might be on the same draw as villain so letting them both pay to most likely miss is +EV.

[ClaytonN]

This was hand specific, yea. Were the pot any bigger I might've called down or raised. I'm still not sure. Not happy with how I played it.

The fear is he had something like KQ and I'm the freaking calling station. But I have to get over that kind of thinking.

[chiachu]

id fold... but im weak /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[Schwartzy61]

[ QUOTE ]
id fold... but im weak /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on why you'd fold. If you folded because you have a read that tells you either the J or A outs are tainted you can easily fold this. If you read that your opponent will not give any action on the river in this scenario when an A or J hits then you can fold here.

But if you folded simply because he could have a K and a K beats me then yes that is weak...

[spacemonkey57]

I'd probably fold this too, but I think you should call it down without a read. He could be betting when he picked up a flush draw.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Against a "typical" PS 1/2 Full Ring player, I'd say raise. The odds are there to chase your five outer, and the average player will likely end up checking to you on the river if you raise. here. I've been finding raising the turn for a free showdown is pretty effective.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Getting a handle on donkbet tendancies is good.

Krishan

[Stinkybeaver]

I always call this, believeing he hit a K or two pair which is why I tend to fold the river UI is this very bad or..?

[txdolly]

I think your line was right here. Although you might want to consider if the turn was different, checking on the flop and raising on the river to protect your hand. Am I wrong in thinking this line?

[PokerCat69]

If u called the turn, and the river is a blank, are you calling a bet as well?

[gopnik]

No way I am folding this, you got odds to draw.

[txdolly]

I meannt bet or raise the turn and call the river bet

[mhlandry]

A question: he's getting 1:8 on this, but by calling the turn is he basically comitting to showdown? Assuming another bet by villan on the river, he's now getting 1:5 on this showdown.

I don't think there is any way I'm folding here. I've seen too many people try this bluff on me. The problem I see with raising is that if he is bluffing, he'll fold and you gain nothing. If he isn't bluffing, he'll reraise and you're out two bets and don't even get to see the showdown. Also if he is bluffing, you're calling may induce a bluff on the river as well and you can pick up that bet.

This is my first reply to a hand posting. How's my reasoning guys?

[A_C_Slater]

I would call getting 8 to 1 with 5 outs at 9 to 1 to improve. That's what I would do in this exact situation while multi-tabling at a hurry, but since I have time to think about it, raising seems a little better. If you call the turn you may be forced to call the river just case he was betting a flush draw. So why not put your two bets in on the turn? This way if a J or A hits the river you can make an extra bet from value betting and still lose the same if you miss.