Who doesn't pay off this river bet?

[foxfox1]

Button with JJ

UTG limps, MP+2 limps, I raise, BB calls and limpers call.

4 to flop.
Flop is T42. Checked to me, I bet, BB raises, I call.

Turn is 4. BB bets, I raise, BB calls.
River 3, BB check-raises me.

I mutter some profanities about 33 and he shows me 33. How often is a river check-raise a bluff? At this point I was getting 12:1. Is there a chance he's bluffing more than 7.7% of the time?

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
Button with JJ

UTG limps, MP+2 limps, I raise, BB calls and limpers call.

4 to flop.
Flop is T42. Checked to me, I bet, BB raises, I call.

Turn is 4. BB bets, I raise, BB calls.
River 3, BB check-raises me.

I mutter some profanities about 33 and he shows me 33. How often is a river check-raise a bluff? At this point I was getting 12:1. Is there a chance he's bluffing more than 7.7% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would 3bet the flop here

and I would have paid him off although thinking about it harder now, you sure look beat

[WillMagic]

I generally three-bet the flop, though I don't necessarily think your line of call the flop, raise the turn is awful.

However I do call the river...you do have an overpair.

Will

[brazilio]

It's HU, you've got no choice but to call.

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there a chance he's bluffing more than 7.7% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

YES. Add in the fact that he may have put you on unimproved overcards and donk-raised with AT. I don't think you can fold here. Yes, you'll be beat a HUGE % of the time, but my guess is YHIG 10 to 15% of the time... nice overlay.

[smartalecc5]

you cap flop and turn if possible.

[foxfox1]

out of position i tend to 3-bet the flop, but in position i will normally pop the turn.

[DemonDeac]

3 bet flop

[dealer_toe]

[ QUOTE ]
3 bet flop

[/ QUOTE ]

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is there a chance he's bluffing more than 7.7% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

YES. Add in the fact that he may have put you on unimproved overcards and donk-raised with AT. I don't think you can fold here. Yes, you'll be beat a HUGE % of the time, but my guess is YHIG 10 to 15% of the time... nice overlay.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im going to say your hand is good less than that on a river check-raise. When someone CRs you on the river, they are rarely bluffing, most players are incapable of pulling this sort of move as a bluff (which is a large amount of ppl).

That said you should really three bet that flop and bet the turn, at the most BB has either top pair or mid pair...and looking at the results it was less than that. You have to give him the chance to fold, he might have called u down either way, but you pawned off the control to him.

[foxfox1]

why 3 bet flop? i get more money in if I wait till the turn to raise, right? would 3-betting the flop really change the result of the hand? If he's not going to lay down to a BB raise on the turn, why would he lay down to a SB raise on the flop. at least if i raise on the turn, i'm charging him the most possible for his 22:1 draw. am i not thinking about this right?