Seeing Monsters?

[waynethetrain]

SB was on the loose side, but not particularly aggressive.

I capped the turn feeling very confident that SB probably also had 3 Qs and I had him either outkicked or it was a push. Given that I had capped the turn, I assumed he had to know I also had 3Qs. When the T fell and he bet into me again, I started thinking he had QTs or Q8s/Q3s (considering he was loose). So I just called. I wonder how much that monster cost me (or was this actually OK given this loose player and the bet at me again).

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls.

River: (16.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 18.50 BB

[David04]

SB most likely has a Q, but I'd say around 80% of the time you are way ahead here. I will raise the river, and cap if 3betted, because SB will 3-bet the river with something like Q2.

[Pov]

I don't see how you can raise this river against anything but a maniac. Given this:

[ QUOTE ]
...but not particularly aggressive.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no possible way you can raise here.

[David04]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how you can raise this river against anything but a maniac. Given this:

[ QUOTE ]
...but not particularly aggressive.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no possible way you can raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think even the most passive of players will bet a lone Q, and this seems like a pretty clear raise to me.

[Pov]

[ QUOTE ]
I think even the most passive of players will bet a lone Q, and this seems like a pretty clear raise to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not after the turn was capped and a flush card hits the river. SB cannot be betting out again with just a lone Q or the supplied read is very inaccurate. I have a hard time finding a raise on this river given the action even against the average LAG.

[David04]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think even the most passive of players will bet a lone Q, and this seems like a pretty clear raise to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not after the turn was capped and a flush card hits the river. SB cannot be betting out again with just a lone Q or the supplied read is very inaccurate. I have a hard time finding a raise on this river given the action even against the average LAG.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think it's just the opposite. Would a not so aggressive player be more likely to 3-bet the turn with a Q or a flush draw? All the action points to SB having a Q here.

[waynethetrain]

I did notice the flush fill also, but I couldn't think of many (if any) hands he would have been 3 betting the turn that included 2 diamonds because the Qd was on the board. It did not go unnoticed though. That's for sure.

Edit: The read is correct. I had been playing for over an hour with this player.

[dozer]

I think villain here would cap the flop if he had Q3, Q8,or a set. So I also don't see him having a boat by the river either. But i would still just call the river because I have MUBS.

[Pov]

[ QUOTE ]
I did notice the flush fill also, but I couldn't think of many (if any) hands he would have been 3 betting the turn that included 2 diamonds because the Qd was on the board. It did not go unnoticed though. That's for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't clear. The flush card doesn't scare us. It scares him. No, it isn't likely we have a flush draw, but that doesn't matter - passive fish are afraid of this kind of thing - that's what makes them passive.

He's betting out again after you capped the turn and now a flush card hits and he still isn't scared. It's possible he's "bluffing" the flush card with just his Q, but I doubt it - that would be opposite to the supplied read once again. You're much more likely to be up against pocket 8's or QT.

[waynethetrain]

OK. I understand your thinking.

[mmbt0ne]

SB probably didn't have 2 pr on the flop because he slowed down. He almost certainly didn't have a set. The question becomes: what Qs is he playing for a raise from the SB?

If you have a read on him as being loose, I think he's playing a lot of Qs other than QT. I would probably raise and call a 3bet here.

[Shillx]

He almost certainly didn't have a set.

Don't be so sure. He might be donkbetting because he has trips, but he might be doing it because he has a big hand. A read would really be nice here to see if he has used bet-call-lead line before.

Brad

[waynethetrain]

A couple of people pointed out that he backed off on the flop. So he probably didn't have the 2 pair/set (and subsequent full house). I think you are probably correct in that thinking. I didn't come to that conclusion during live play. (I'm always better when I have more that 20 seconds or so to review the hand). /images/graemlins/grin.gif

So I think it was probably appropriate to only be worried about QT(s). I should have tried to guage the probability of him playing QTs from the SB facing a raise pre flop and then being willing to bet into me on the river after I capped the turn vs. other possible Q hands that he would do the same with.

[smartalecc5]

Im dying here, how did the hand end out?

[waynethetrain]

He had Q5o. That certainly wasn't my top choice. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[David04]

[ QUOTE ]
He had Q5o. That certainly wasn't my top choice. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah I figured he had Qx. Aside from the river call(which is debatable. A raise in my opinion) well played.