Thoughs on the spread or total of the det/mia game tonight?

[WackityWhiz]

I honestly have no clue how this one is going to turn out, and no clue to the pace of the game. My instict tells me to stay away from the spread and just pick the under. Every total in detroit's last series was set WAY too high. Be interesting to see how it plays out tonight.

what do you guys think?

[llabb]

UNDER 181 looks like a great play to me.

Detroit and Miami both play great defense, both in the top 5 FG% defense for the regular season, and are #2 & 3 in the playoffs. #1 & #5 in lowest points allowed. Miami has had a long layoff and played without Shaq for the last couple games. They may need some time to get back in sync rhythm and chemistry-wise, and Shaq may not score as much, due to injury. As of an hour ago, Van Gundy wouldn't even commit to Shaq playing or not, although that may just be gamesmanship.

The 2 teams averaged a miserable 158 in their matchups during the season, with their highest ever output being 167. That means that with the Total set at 181, you get 23 points of room, for an average game, and still win the closest one by 14! I took the Under last night, and got 181.5.

Anyone else agree or disagree with this?

[llabb]

Oh, and I also like Detroit +4, as well as a small side play on the ML.

Miami's layoff and Shaq's injury hurt them coming into Game 1. Detroit controlled the pace of the regular season games. Wade is awesome and will win them some games, like their second reg-season matchup when he scored a triple-double. But when Detroit locks down, they can contain him, such as the third reg-season matchup, when he fouled out with only 5 points.

Detroit crushed a similar Lakers team last year. Miami this year is better than that, but Det still looks like the better team to me.

For the series, I took Detroit at +130, with an additional tiny side play on Det in 6 at +390.

[WackityWhiz]

I decided to make a decent sized bet on the over (3 units). I got it at 179.5 and I changed my thoughts on this being an under game. Iuno why, just a gut feeling.

C'mon double overtime! /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Kevroc]

got Heat in sweep at +1100

[WackityWhiz]

i just hope they get it to a decent number so I can buy back my dumb over bet at halftime. This game is gonna be under most likely.

[heropretend]

yep, under at halftime whatever it is.

[WackityWhiz]

I can't risk 6.5 units with a chance of getting middled by 3.5 pts... I guess I'll just have to hope for the best in the 2nd half. So many easy missed shots it seemed like... the over is not out of the question.. I just wish I was on the other side of it /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[heropretend]

thus far:
fast enough pace, but low scoring throughout. as i think collins or someone mentioned the game's 2 worst free throw shooters allow each team the advantage of getting set in defense. bodes well for the under scores if they stay in high 170s.

i like detroit. i think the quality of the miami's bench has surprised, but they really haven't faced a defense as skilled and solid as the detroit d. one of my favorite columnists, bill simmons, commented on e. jones, d. jones, dooling, etc probably contributing nothing in crunch time during big games. none of the wash or nj games were big games, we'll see how they do when put to the test.

[heropretend]

yeah nevermind my 2nd half under comment. but i am playing det. +105 +2.5

[llabb]

Det +2.5, +1-5 sounds like a pretty good play to me. I'd have taken it too, but I'm already playing Det and the Under, and this game is too close to double up on my bets now.

I thought Det would be ahead by more already, and I thought the 1st half would be lower. I made an additional side play on a low scoring start to the game, and was debating taking the 1st Q under 45 or 1st half under 90. I stupidly took the 1st Q under, and lost it, but if I had taken the 1st half, I would have won it.

After the frantic start at a quicker pace, they seem to have settled down into a slower tempo. I hope that continues, since I have the under on the game.

Sorry about your over bet, Wackity, although it may end up that way anyway; it's so close right now. I go with my gut at the last second too often also. I should just stick with my head, and make the plays the previous night.

[llabb]

Besides losing my 1st Q bet, something else was quite distrubing at half time. Does anyone know what the heck kind of "joke" entertainment Miami does for their halftime show?

At least I assume it's a joke. There were a bunch of really old ladies shaking their booty. Ugh.

Although it's not quite as bad as the Mav's overweight middle-aged men with pot bellies that they feature for entertainment sometimes.

[WackityWhiz]

If these n00bs can get it to at least 134 after 3, then I might have a chance to cover my bet. I just don't want this coming down to the last minute... 4 pts a minute for the final 4 minutes of the 3rd is all i ask guys... please ... then a decent line for the 4th.

[WackityWhiz]

well 39 pts in the 4th and i win... or i can cover my bet... decisions decisions

[WackityWhiz]

I guess at this point i should just let my bet stand ... and hope that they don't score 38 like they did in the 2nd.

/images/graemlins/cool.gif 39 pts please

[WackityWhiz]

well, good job on your under bets... that was a bad beat if i've ever seen one /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[heropretend]

i don't think you believe that wackity. the pace determined the score, and if wade is off, then you can't expect shaq to lead any team in the last 4-5minutes. in any case, better luck next time to ya.

[llabb]

This was a good thread. Let's use it for the series; we can start talking about the Miami-Detroit Game 2 betting strategy. The early lines are posted already anyway.

So who's taking the UNDER again?

My thoughts: It doesn't look like they adjusted the total by enough. Game 1 covered the Under 181 easily, and Game 2 is set at 179. It still looks like a lock, for all the reasons discussed earlier.

The series average this year is now 161, with 171 being the highest so far. And the 50 & 54 pt quarters in Game 1 will be hard to duplicate, since they only broke 50 once out of the 12 quarters of the reg-season. In fact, they only broke 40 pts 4 out of 12 times, so 30-some pt quarters are extremely common in this series.

I think I'm gonna take the Under again. Any reason to talk me out of it?

[WackityWhiz]

u had to be a lil scared last night when it was 141 after 3... I know with my over bet I was feeling pretty good, til miami didn't score for like 5 mins in the 4th.

Iuno, I think I might try the over again.

[llabb]

Anyone else wanna discuss Mia/Det Game 2 tonight?

I'm still liking the Under, and also thinking about taking Miami. After seeing Pho go down 0-2 on their homecourt, Mia has to be very scared of the same thing happening to them. I don't see Mia getting swept, so this is the must win game. But then again, that's what I thought for Pho last night. Tonight it depends on whether Wade can figure out a way to get by the Piston's suffocating D for just one game. Tough call.

I might make the same big teaser play, to end up at Mia +0.5 and Under 184.5. Could hedge it, since Detroit's getting the same crazy +180 money line that SA got yesterday. Argh. I know I want to play the Under, but not sure if I should play the side/ML or not. Am I being a chicken if I like Miami in this spot and would normally take them, but avoid the bet just because I lost in the same situation last night?

[homedog]

Gotta take Detroit at those odds. Period. Even if they lose it's still the smart play. My "hedge" is taking Miami series line. Just grabbed them at +200. That'll suddenly look real sweet if Miami wins tonight and then grabs a split on the road. But in the meantime, the oddsmakers cannot keep giving me San Antonio and Detroit at +170/+180 and expect me not to bet it everytime.

[Tha Villain]

What site did you get the Miami Series line at?

I'm on bodog.com and they don't have Series Lines... /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[homedog]

I bet the series line on wsex.com. They update them after each game so you can really trap series. (ie. I had Detroit +120 before it started and now have the Miami +200 side). They also have live game betting there which is about as fun as it gets.

[Tha Villain]

I might have to check them out...

For tonights game I have Miami to win. They normally shoot a higher percentage than they did in Game 1. I attributed this to their long layoff after sweeping Washington. It's one thing to shoot jumpshots in practice, it's another to try to create shots and sink them with one of the league's best defenses in your face. Wade had some tough looks, but he also missed some shots he usually makes. This game he should get his rhythm back and be able to put up +20 points. He put up I think 38 on them in the regular season.

And we all know Detroit can't stop Shaq. They didn't stop him in Game 1, and they didn't stop him vs. the Lakers. Shaq will probably be even better tonight. Plus Eddie Jones is always consistently good vs. Detroit this season.

I'm not betting on Miami to win because the line on them is like -210. I don't really like betting to win half of my money. I may check back closer to game time to see if the line goes down with money coming in for Detroit. I'll take them at -170 or less.

I'm also betting the Under. BET THE UNDER ALL SERIES!!! Someone posted the numbers. These teams have some low scoring games this year. Here are the totals:

78-77
89-78
80-72

BET THE UNDER ALL SERIES!!!

If anyone gives you numbers around 180 pts., give or take 4, BET THE UNDER!

They are two teams with great defense who like to slow down the tempo. Don't get me wrong, both can run. But Shaq automatically slows things down by feeding him, and the Pistons take their time on O and make extra passes to find open men. I don't think there will be one game over 200 points. Even if they miss the Under one game, chances are they'll hit it more often than not.

Those are my picks. And I think Miami will win the series, probably in 6 or 7. They'll take tonight, then one on the road, their next one at home, and probably game six. But that's just what I think.

[TRBNGR]

The under looks good to me, Its hard for me to see these teams scoring 90 points each... I also like the Heat in 1Q at -1.5... The Heat should come out to a fast start tonight.

[Tha Villain]

Thats my thought as well.

Miami is capable of it, but it'll be tough against Detroit and with Shaq at 75%. Detroit never has been a team to put up a bunch of points, although they can under the right circumstances, but Miami's defense is good and should keep them under 90.

Thats why I say, BET THE UNDER ALL SERIES!!

That is, unless they drop the numbers to like 160 or 170. They'll be Over 160 easily. 170 is too borderline for me to bet. It could go either way. But anything around 180 and up, and I'm betting the Under.

[heropretend]

I don't like Miami because in the 4th Detroit played champion caliber basketball. They played with poise, tough defense, feeding the hot hand, finding easy buckets, doing all the little things. I feel like some of tonight's Miami side bets might be made due to the must win nature of this game. But as the Spurs showed, a lot of times the team that's been there will claw their way back into games and win a good number of games in the 4th. Honestly, I don't know if the Spurs 'clawed their way back'...fell asleep with almost nothing on the line (hey poker, you run goot!), but I assume that's what happened.

So my play is to take the under...take Detroit +4.5-5 and I haven't decided what I'm doing with the moneyline (though after my idiotic monster bet on dallas/suns, I can't foresee a substantial moneyline bet tonight). If I were to play a teaser, I'd go Detroit +9.5 or more with under 184.

[llabb]

It's good to see that everyone is in consensus about the totals, hopefully we all continue winning these plays.

The sides/moneylines have had some interesting points on both sides, though. Just gonna stick with my main play on the Mia/Under teaser, but hedging it with a Det/Under teaser and some half-time bets. (The Mia HT/ Det FT is interesting at +600. That's what helped save me last night, taking Pho HT/ SA FT +650.)

Here we go, guys, GL to all!

[llabb]

So far this freaking game is going just like last night's, but with an Under pace rather than the Over. Mia looked so good at halftime, and is getting killed in the 2nd half so far! Just like last night, it looks like I may hit the total and lose the side. It's so disappointing seeing a game go your way, then fall apart at the end.

On a useless trivial note, the halftime entertainment they gave a glimpse of was much better. Grandmaster Flash and some breakdancers, rather than the nasty old ladies of Game 1.

UN

FOCKING

BELIEVABLE

UNDER 177 1/2

[heropretend]

made three huge plays last second
MIAMI U 91.5
U 178
DET +5

screamed NO NO NO
ah [censored]

edit: forgot about censors

[Tha Villain]

DWYANE WADE!! NOOO!!!!

I had Under 178, and it was good, until Wade made that dunk with ONE SECOND ON THE CLOCK!!!

So I got a Push, get my money back. But I could have WON MONEY!!!

DWYANE WADE SCREWED ME OVER!!! (and my brother)

But hey, at least I didn't lose money. And I won a little on the little bit I bet on Miami to win. But man, I could have had even more if it wasn't for that pointless dunk. No defender within 20 feet and the clock running out. Unbelievable.

I really gotta stop gambling...

[llabb]

WTF was he thinking, dunking with 1 second left?!? If Detroit has any pride, they should knock him around in the next game, for that shameless display.

Sucks for all of us here that lost a buncha money, or even just lost out on some wins. I had some parlays that woulda hit BIG! I did manage okay, since the Miami side hit, and I jumped the gun on the Under and got it early at 179, but my sympathies are with those who didn't. D-Wade jobbed you.

Let's discuss plays by the night before the game if we can, and jump on the early lines. They seem to move against us big-time.

Do we still like the Over in Pho-SA, even though it's freaking 214 now? Thinking yes...

Let's discuss it in the Phoenix-San Antonio Thread! (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2453263&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1)

[heropretend]

i think i'd like to have the last 3 hours of my life back.

[ThaHero]

I think my brother is on tilt. I am too! Grrrr! Wade is so selfish and classless! At least this isnt poker. In poker, going on tilt can ruin you because you can still play hands. I can take a few hours(or days) with sports betting. Talk about a bad beat! That was a suck out on the River with a 1 outer.

[TacoVendor]

In addition to having the Under at 177 1/2, I also had Miami -1 1/2 at the end of Q1. Of course they were up by one, it set the tone for the night.

[llabb]

I feel your pain, guys. I went on tilt last night.

I had big plays last night on Pho -2 at halftime...Pho wins by 1, of course. Big teaser on Pho +0.5 and Over 204.5. Over easy money the whole game, and Pho easily ahead in the 2nd half, Duncan in foul trouble, Pho just gives it away in the 4th. The painful part is that it really looks like you're gonna win, and then it just gets taken away from you!

My only advice - if you are on tilt from tonight's game, don't go play poker in the wrong frame of mind! It can be very costly!

Best wishes to all.

[ThaHero]

lol thanks for the advice.

I wasn't really on tilt. just kidding. I think my brother really was though. I'm playing poker now and doing very well, although it's at the lowly .25/.50 level lol

[Tha Villain]

LOL bro I wasn't on tilt. More shocked than anything. After the missed shot and the ball got knocked away I thought it was a done deal, but then Wade gets it and accelerates into the open floor and I knew it was over for us lol.

It's funny cause I placed the bet 11 PST. From now on I'm betting O/U lines first thing in the morning!

Thing is, I like the Under next game also, depending on the line. There's no way Detroit is giving up 90 points at home, and I don't think Detroit can do it vs. Miami's defense. So I'll probably bet the Under next game as well.

Congrats to you guys that got the bet in at 179 or 180!

[llabb]

I'm with you. Take the lines ASAP, even several days in advance.

I like the Under also. Det goes home, should play more inspired D. Less sloppy offense, cutting down on all Mia's transition baskets last night. Should contain Wade once more, will not get 40 again. For all the Pistons' much talked-about defensive prowess, Miami has been shooting above 46%. Det will need to cut that down.

Line is 177-177.5 right now, and I think I'll just take it. Don't want to risk it dropping even more, where it might get untakeable.

I'm also on the Pistons to win. They were completely horrible last night, and still looked like they might pull it off. Going back home and reinvigorating their D, they should punk Miami on Sunday. Rumor has it they will also knock Wade flat on his @$$ for the unnecessary showoff dunk at the end, and for costing several 2+2 bettors serious $$.

The line at -5 is all right, but I think I'll just take the teaser here again, for Det -0.5, Under 183.5. That Under should be no problem, so I'm basically just getting a Pistons pick'em. (Even if I'm wrong, there are few scenarios where Det would beat Mia by more than 5, but not hit the under 183.5.)

Final plays: Under and Det/Under teaser.

[TRBNGR]

[ QUOTE ]
UN

FOCKING

BELIEVABLE

UNDER 177 1/2

[/ QUOTE ]

[heropretend]

(06:15:59) hero: dwayne wade cost every 2+2 degenerate a bunch of moeny
(06:16:19) villain: haha..why
(06:16:33) hero3: we all had the 177.5 under
(06:16:48) villain: 2+2 should stick to poker

[michiganfan9]

Personally I want to see the heat and the suns square off in the finals but I have to take Detroit at the Palace with their staggering defense. As long as Dwayne doesn't perform like he did last game I think they will take it. What is the spread on the game?

[llabb]

Yeah, the D-Wade shot still hurts. But part of it is me hurting myself with some of the combinations I'm trying. Playoff basketball capping can be a highly +EV move, though.

Looking through the posts for all the picks on the totals and sides that I've made since the Conf Finals started, they're 7-1. I haven't won as much as that would indicate, due to too many bad prop bets, parlay and teaser combos, but it's still been highly +EV for me.

Part of the reason I started posting here, rather than other capping boards, is that I think poker players have good +EV minds, which helps to evaluate the bets better. That's why we were all over the SA +180 line, even though the public didn't give it much play.

We just gotta stay disciplined and not thrown off by the bad beats. Anyway, hope the rest of the playoffs turn out well for everyone.

[WackityWhiz]

Last night was the most exciting night of basketball betting that i've ever had. I had the OVER 178 and at halftime I decided to go ALL IN on miami to score over 43.5 in the 2nd. Well, that means they had to have 91 pts total. That last dunk was a 1330 swing for me to push my first bet and win the 2nd.

THANK YOU WADE, YOU ARE MY HERO!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tha Villain]

LMAO@Wickity.

Glad you got something out of that dunk.

Game 3 should be interesting. Here are my thoughts on it...

I attributed Miami's Game 1 loss, and Wade's poor performance, to the long layoff they had after sweeping Washington. Miami is a jump shooting team that shoots a high percentage (best in the NBA reg season) and with teams like that they have to stay on the court and keep their rhythm going. You can't take a week and a half off and come back on fire against one of the league's best D's. So I knew they were gonna be off. Wade was off, and D. Jones was off as well. Without them chipping in it's tough for Miami to win.

I knew they'd get their rhythm back and come out and shoot a high percentage last night, and that's what happened. Wade was spectacular down the stretch because he had his stroke and was in a rhythm as far as creating shots for himself. He didn't have that in Game 1, and that's why MIA faltered down the stretch. Also, Shaq is getting stronger as he goes. And Zo is looking very nice as well.

Some sites still have Miami as the dogs after their Game 1 loss, despite winning last night. I look for Miami to continue to play well. There will probably be a GREAT line for Miami in Game 3 (similar to SA's line, like +180) and I think I may take it. Mia is a championship caliber team IMO just like San Antonio, so if they post that kind of line I'll jump all over it.

I'm definitely betting the Under though. I'm on bodog.com and they haven't posted the lines yet, but it'll probably be right around 178 like the other sites. As you said, Detroit should play better defense at home and not be as sloppy on offense and give up so many turnovers. And if Miami's bigs can stay out of foul trouble (O'Neal, Zo, Haslem) unlike Game 2, they should cut down on Detroits offensive rebounds and also get some more blocks and win the paint. So that will cut down on Detroits scoring. So the Under should be good.

Like you said, we just can't get scared and start betting the Over because of one dunk. If it wasn't for that one freak dunk the Under would have hit, even though it still hit for some of you. But the Under is good this series. It's been good all season with these two teams.

[WackityWhiz]

[ QUOTE ]
But the Under is good this series. It's been good all season with these two teams.

[/ QUOTE ]

very good point, totally agree with you on that. The only reason I picked the over in game 2 was because game 1 should have been over if it weren't for the sweet 30 pt 4th quarter.

I think I have to disagree with you on Miami tho. After watching these first 2 games, I have no idea how it's 1-1. Miami pretty much played lights out last night and came away with a nail biter. Shaq is overrated, Wade is their only chance. Detroit has such a good TEAM and Miami has such a good PLAYER. Wade has been absolutely amazing this year, but I just don't feel it's going to be enough. I think Detroit finds a way to contain Wade in the upcoming games. IMO Detroit wins the next 3 games in dominating fashion.

Don't get me wrong, Miami has played brilliant ball this year, I just think that they match up poorly against Detroit.

[llabb]

If you don't have lines yet, you need Pinnacle. Better lines IMO, and out last night.

I disagree on Miami. I think Det's the better team and virtually let Miami win. Det has lazy champion's disease and thinks they can turn on the switch when they want, as shown in the regular season and against Indiana. They came out like crap, Billups had 8 TO's, nobody drove the hole so they shot twice as many stupid 3's, and their lacksadaisical offensive play led to transition baskets for Miami, so they couldn't get their defense set up.

Miami didn't win, Det lost the game...and still almost pulled it out of their butt, if not for Wade needing an exceptional game, just to barely save it. Can't see Det letting him score 20 in the 4th again.

Shaq has good 1st Q's, then sucks. Mia does not play well against teams that play D, and I do not see them beating Det. They wouldn't beat SA either, if they got the opportunity to play them. They couldn't even beat Indiana in the regular season, losing 3-out-of-4. Anything can happen, of course, but I think that if Det concentrates, they can lock up the series at home. Assuming they win Game 3, they need to guard against their heads getting big again, and actually focus. Mia's hope depends on Wade pulling near triple-doubles every game.

In my opinion, just look at the Pistons-Lakers series last year (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/teams/schedule?team=det&season=2004) for the script to this series, except that Mia will take it to 6 because they have better depth.

All just my opinion, play the games as you wish.

[WackityWhiz]

you d00ds still on the under tonight? under 177 looks like the number atm.

[Tha Villain]

I took the Under again tonight. Detroit should play better D at home. And if Miami's bigs stay out of foul trouble they should play better D than they did in Game 2 and cut down on Det's offensive rebounds.

I can't call who's gonna win this one so I didn't bet the moneyline. My gut says Mia carries their Game 2 momentum into this one, but to me it's not +EV. I would need Mia over +200 to bet them.

I think Mia will take the series though. IMO Mia is a better team. Detroit is great, don't get me wrong, but so is Miami. I don't think they have an answer for Wade. He was off Game 1 because of the layoff after their sweep. If Det really had his number there is no way he would have scored 40 in Game 2. Like Kobe last year. He was locked all series.

You can't compare last years Lakers to this years Heat. Yes, Shaq is there. But Wade is completely different than Kobe. Zo is playing better than Malone. D. Jones is contributing more than GP and E. Jones is playing better than George/Fox/Whoever. Miami has a better supporting cast and deeper bench than LA did. So you can't really compare them.

It should be an exciting series though. I doubt Det wins both at home. Mia should steal one on the road. This one may go 7. We'll see...

[WackityWhiz]

KARMA anyone? I can see it now. Total score of 176 with 5 secs to go. Detroit up by 8 and they go down and slam it home to put Wade in his place for his actions in game 2.

almost a lock to happen /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[WackityWhiz]

more like score of 276 with 5 secs to go...

[Tha Villain]

I'm done betting the Over/Under on this one lol.

Who knew Miami would put up 113 on Detroit? And Wade had 36! Good thing is I got the hedge of hedges. I picked up Miami 4 to 1 to win the series after Game 1. That was +EV for me. Now Miami is up 2-1 with home court advantage and a 5-0 road record in the playoffs. Hopefully they can finish off the defending champs.

I also loaded up on Miami to win it all, which was also +EV. Those numbers have probably changed.

I think I'm done on this series. Might bet the Under tomorrow for SA/Pho though. Need some more $ for Kostya lol. We'll see.

[WackityWhiz]

All of these are huge bets compared to my bankroll (between 35% and 60%)

Game 1 - Over 179.5 (171)Loss

Game 2 - Over 178 (178)Push
Heat over 43.5 2h (45) Win

Game 3 - Under 177 (217)Loss
Heat over 43.5 2h (60) Win

Game 4 - Under 179 (202)Loss
Det over 22 4thQ (27) Win

Not much content to this post, just wanted to show everyone that my life flashed b4 my eyes every game with my halftime bets, as I was all in on most of them. Very fortunate to say the least.

Gotta stop doing this to myself.