2 people flopping a set?

[Unvme]

just looking of the odds in a 10 handed game, 4 way, of 2 people flopping a set.


thanks

[Unvme]

noone knows?

[treeofwisdom7]

chance of getting a pair 1/17 *1/17 = chance 2 people have pair preflop

multiply that by chance someone catches set squared..

wrap it!

TH

[closer2313]

provided all 4 have pocket pairs?

If 2 people have pocket pairs, its somewhere around 1/100 of a chance. I think

C(2,1) * C(2,1) * C(44,1) / C(48,3) = 1.01%

[treeofwisdom7]

yah i think thats correct too little more than 1% which means you should worry when you flop a set. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[fannar]

You probably only care about the answer if you actually flopped one. So a more appropriate question might be, what is the probability that another player flops a set, given that I flopped one.

If two players both see the flop and both had pp preflop, and if the flopped cards are all of different rank the probability is 2/47 + (1 - 45/47)*2/46 = 8.42%. The probability that the opponent's set beats yours depends on how your set ranks w.r.t. the flopped cards.

The probability that the oppenent flops a set (unconditional on him having pp preflop) depends on the probability of him having pp given that he sees the flop, which obviously depends a lot on his playing style, and could be anywhere between 6% and 100%.