He's probably got QQ or KK and there's a Q on flop...

[creedofhubris]

5/10 NL.

Unremarkable UTG+1 ($1100) open-raises to $30. Tough MP ($1500) calls. I raise to $150 with my A/images/graemlins/club.gifA/images/graemlins/spade.gif, since I don't want tough MP in the hand. UTG+1 calls, MP folds.

Flop:

Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif5/images/graemlins/club.gif.

UTG+1 checks. I bet $200, UTG+1 calls.

Plan from now on?

EDIT: He's got $750 left, I have him covered.

[LuvDemNutz]

Check the turn, call the river?

[Yeti]

Meh. If he has say $1500 you can bet this and fold to a raise.

However, considering there's $700 in the pot and he's only got about $750 left, I probably fire $400 and call if he pushes.

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]
Check the turn, call the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my original plan but I changed my mind when I examined the stacks closer.

I want to get max value here if he has KK, whilst at the same time realising I can't really fold to his push on the turn.

[LuvDemNutz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check the turn, call the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my original plan but I changed my mind when I examined the stacks closer.

I want to get max value here if he has KK, whilst at the same time realising I can't really fold to his push on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

SOME players MIGHT fold KK here if Hero fires a second barrel on the turn - depending on how weak-tight they are and how they view Hero.

Checking behind on the turn might look like a whiffed AK (or even JJ) so I don't think you lose that much value here unless an A hits on the river.

[ahnuld]

Given your strong read on the probability of his holdings ( I agree), I think the only play is to check the turn (unless its an ace) thus inducing a bluff on the river. If its a blank and he checks turn and river, bet the river.

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check the turn, call the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my original plan but I changed my mind when I examined the stacks closer.

I want to get max value here if he has KK, whilst at the same time realising I can't really fold to his push on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

SOME players MIGHT fold KK here if Hero fires a second barrel on the turn - depending on how weak-tight they are and how they view Hero.

Checking behind on the turn might look like a whiffed AK (or even JJ) so I don't think you lose that much value here unless an A hits on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point actually.

Similarly, some players MIGHT call the reraise preflop with KQ and call you down here. I've seen it happen.

With say $1500, I can accept preferably betting and folding to a raise, or checking behind. But here the stacks are pretty short and if I bet here, I can't be confident enough that he wouldn't move in with KK.

I dunno. Obviously if the flop is KQx then it's a no-brainer check behind.

[fsuplayer]

i bet this.

350-400 is good.

call a push.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
i bet this.

350-400 is good.

call a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

[hank102977]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously if the flop is KQx then it's a no-brainer check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that with the intention of calling a river bet?

[fsuplayer]

usually yes. but not always. player and bet size dependant. too many opponents will play, and bet AK on the river there to fold.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
Given your strong read on the probability of his holdings ( I agree), I think the only play is to check the turn (unless its an ace) thus inducing a bluff on the river. If its a blank and he checks turn and river, bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you put your opponent squarely on top set or an overpair, and you're hoping to induce a "bluff" from him?

[Leptyne]

Overpair or set? I'm thinking set. If the turns a blank I'd fold to his push or bet $350 and fold to his push. If he checks and calls the turn then he doesn't have the set and I call or push the river.

[LuvDemNutz]

I think betting $350 and folding to a push is bad.

[Rotating Rabbit]

I check/fold turn and fold/valuebet a river. We can be 66% sure villian has KK by combinations.

Villian is more likely to put money in on the river than the turn with KK, and he doesnt have enough for more than 1 round of betting, so our value is the river.

But, there's no way villian is going to fire into hero without QQ; there's no holding hero is calling with that he beats with KK, and playing for AA to laydown is a low percentage play. So fold the turn and river to a push.

[amoeba]

anybody check the flop?

[freemoney]

no

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
I check/fold turn and fold/valuebet a river. We can be 66% sure villian has KK by combinations.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I think KK and QQ are the two most likely holdings, there is also some possibility that villain is secretly a donkey and is holding poo like AQ, JJ, or even AK.

[Rotating Rabbit]

[ QUOTE ]
there is also some possibility that villain is secretly a donkey and is holding poo

[/ QUOTE ]

lol caused me to spill my drink you bstrd ;p

[flawless_victory]

the deal is, MOST players in the games i play at this limit will muck KK every time if you bet the turn. thats why checking is play with the AA... if you had 9T or 66 or some other hand that wasnt winning, id advise firing again. also if the river is a duece and this dude bets allin or $600 you can prob fold since this will be top set.

[piki]

no chance Villian has AKs?

[creedofhubris]

OK, let's break it down.

Things opponent could have, and my best move:


KK, AQ -> bet turn, bet river. Or check turn, bet river. (He's probably not folding these, but a turn check is not too bad either, since he will be entirely unable to fold if I do that.)

QQ -> check turn, call river. (Or fold to an all-in, but really, I am not folding here to anything but an all-in.)

AK, JJ, miscellaneous -> check turn, call/bet river. (He may try to steal, he may think I have AK, whatever.)

So in only one case is betting the turn correct, and it's not much better than checking, so I should check the turn.


The actual results made all this moot.

I caught an A on the turn, he checked, I bet another $200, he called.

He led the river for $200, I pushed, he called with QQQ.

[piki]

I like a value bet on the turn, maybe 1/2 the pot. Gives him an opportunity to fold or raise. His action tells me a lot about his and my hand.

I dont like a check on the turn because you really dont care about a free card. If he has any PP, most likely neither of you are improving.

9 outta 10 times your hand will lose if he has QQ in this situation. It does mean you need to capitalize on all the situations he doesnt have QQ to make up for paying him off here.

[technologic]

isn't it nice to know you probably only would've lost 200 had you not caught your ace...

[piki]

He could have just folded preflop and not lost anything

[not_da_nizzles]

That's always my plan with Aces ...

[Richie Rich]

In this case, I think it becomes a lot easier if you look at the hand through the perspective of your opponent.

On a separate note, did you want him to call your bet on that flop? Sometimes I'll check behind to keep the pot small, but many times I will overbet to sense if he's trying to trap me.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]

On a separate note, did you want him to call your bet on that flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course I did, because I thought his most likely holding was KK. Bayes, and calling a $120 raise, told me so.

[Yeti]

Hmm, ok. After some more thought I'll give you this one.

However, in 6max, this is an automatic bet.