Muckleshoot live 10/20 - checkraising the river v.s. a TAG

[bobdibble]

Villian is a thinking, aggressive TAG. When heads up w/him he has caught me semi-bluffing the turn.

Hero is in BB w/J /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Preflop: UTG (weak/passive) bets, UTG+1 calls, folded to TAG on the button who calls, SB folds, I call.

Flop: A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, TAG bets, I call, UTG (passive) raises, UTG+1 folds, TAG calls.

Turn: 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif
I bet, UTG folds, TAG calls.

River: 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
I check, TAG bets, I raise...

[TheHip41]

looks like fps

just bet

[bobdibble]

[ QUOTE ]
looks like fps

just bet

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I disagree for the moment, but want more feedback.

If I bet, what hands will TAG put me on. What hands will he fold, call, and raise with?

If I check, what hands will TAG put me on? What hands will he fold, call, and raise my CR with?

I believe he bets this river when checked to more often than he calls my bet.

[TheHip41]

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[ QUOTE ]
looks like fps

just bet

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree for the moment, but want more feedback.

If I bet, what hands will TAG put me on. What hands will he fold, call, and raise with?

If I check, what hands will TAG put me on? What hands will he fold, call, and raise my CR with?

I believe he bets this river when checked to more often than he calls my bet.

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True, but what hands will he call a c/r with? If he has an ace, he's calling. I'd just bet, and hope he raises.

[SeaEagle]

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I believe he bets this river when checked to more often than he calls my bet.

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Really? What hands is he folding to a river bet? There's not really any concievable draw except for the Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

On the other hand, I can see him checking a lot of Kx and Ax hands through for a showdown.

[bobbyi]

Do you play at Muck a lot? I've been mostly playing online now, but over the past couple years, I played hundreds of hours of their 10/20 and of their 20/40, plus some 30/60.

Anyway, I think you should definitely bet the flop.

[bobdibble]

I only play at the Muck once a month. I mostly play online.

[Nate tha' Great]

Betting is better IMO. Especially in a live game where he's less likely to call your check-raise out of spite and more likely to check behind something with showdown value.

[bobdibble]

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Betting is better IMO. Especially in a live game where he's less likely to call your check-raise out of spite and more likely to check behind something with showdown value.

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Hrmm.. ok. I'll bet this situation from now on.

FWIW, he bet the river and he folded to my CR.

[PokerBob]

You should have 3 bet the flop.

[cmwck]

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You should have 3 bet the flop.

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Isn't this kind of thin with only 2 other players?

[SeaEagle]

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Isn't this kind of thin with only 2 other players?

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You have 12 very strong outs and decent implied odds since both your opponents have indicated they have something. I'd be getting as much money in the pot as I could.

[bobdibble]

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Isn't this kind of thin with only 2 other players?

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You have 12 very strong outs and decent implied odds since both your opponents have indicated they have something. I'd be getting as much money in the pot as I could.

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I don't see how implied odds influance a decision to raise for value.

I considered raising, but didn't think I had any outs that I needed to clean up and thought that one of them may fold. If one of them folds, the raise is -EV unless I think I can bluff out the caller on a later street. However, I think if one folds and the other calls, the caller is going to see a showdown on this board.

[cmwck]

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Isn't this kind of thin with only 2 other players?

[/ QUOTE ]
You have 12 very strong outs and decent implied odds since both your opponents have indicated they have something. I'd be getting as much money in the pot as I could.

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Whoops, didnt see the gutshot