AKo misses

[dfscott]

UTG seemed solid. He played very few hands, but played them aggressively. Is this an easy spot to bail or do I let UTG put me all-in?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 (t1565)
CO (t640)
Hero (t700)
SB (t610)
BB (t1035)
UTG (t915)
UTG+1 (t480)
MP1 (t2055)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t30, CO calls t30, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t275</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls t245, MP2 folds, CO folds.

Flop: (t655) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t350</font>, Hero ???

[AlcateL]

i fold, you're up against a pair more than AQ AJ

[kyro]

If he is truly a solid player, I can't think of any hand he has that you beat.

[citanul]

er, imo, utg can't be that solid, he did limp call off 1/3 of his stack.

given your preflop action, i'd have to push on the flop. you left yourself with ~450 behind, even though i would sort of expect to see 99-JJ or AK or something like that when i don't see my opponent holding AA-QQ here. i just feel that you can't put yourself in this spot with 400 odd chips and then fold, and when called by those middle hands or whatever, you've got some outs.

having said that, i'd probably raise less preflop, maybe to about 150, to give myself more options on the flop.

citanul

edit: depending on your buyin level, i'd also expect to be ahead a fair amount of the time when called, not that much, but sometimes.

[stanzee]

I wouldnt have raised so much preflop, but anyways, depending on my mood i probably fold. You're still not quite pot commited yet. Looks like UTG is trying to protect a medium pair. Can't see him betting like that with AQ or AJ which is about the best you can hope he has.

[kyro]

I think QQ-AA check-raises this flop. I really can't see AK, AQ or KQ. I put villain squarely on 99-JJ with an emphasis on JJ.

[Nicok7]

Raise 200 so you are not too involved, then fold to a decent bet, Ace high is a pretty bad holding.

Even in this case I would still fold because I figue you are beat every time and some of your outs might well be counterfeated by UTG

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
I think QQ-AA check-raises this flop. I really can't see AK, AQ or KQ. I put villain squarely on 99-JJ with an emphasis on JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

my problem is that i think that while you are likely behind, and i'm agreeing with a medium pair assessment, you're about 25% to win the hand against a medium pair, and i think you might need to take the odds given you, though they are worse than the odds you need, because being as short as you would be otherwise is not great.

however, i don't see why if you think that QQ-AA would checkraise this flop that 99-JJ would not as well, it seems intuitive that both sets of hands should be played pretty much the same way in this spot.

citanul

[citanul]

if your opponent has AA or KK here, i think you're pretty much screwed. it would, however, bet a very strange way of having played the hand for utg, since he would have had to limp early and then NOT reraise a significant, almost pot committing, raise from another player heads up. if he has A2 or A7, i think you just tip your hat to him and put him on your buddy list. so i don't think that your outs being counterfeited is something you should be worrying about too much.

i think that raising to 200 and then folding to from one other player when you have 700 chips, unless you can VERY reliably put him on AA or KK (like a habitual limp reraiser with AA or KK) is a terrible terrible terrible line and you should be admonished for offering it as any form of advice to anyone anywhere.

"ace high is a pretty bad holding" is so trite you should consider putting your head in an oven.

citanul

[NYCNative]

I think that bet says he missed too, but I'm unsure. He should push all-in given his stack and yours so that bet is either because he's scared or he's trapping. If he's as smart as you think he is, I'll bet trapping.

If you call you're commited pretty much. It's either fold or push. It's early and you still have 14BB left so you might want to fold.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
however, i don't see why if you think that QQ-AA would checkraise this flop that 99-JJ would not as well, it seems intuitive that both sets of hands should be played pretty much the same way in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

The first three have a much better chance of being ahead of another overpair than the second three. I'm not saying this is correct thinking, but merely what villain may be thinking. The problem is (which I realized afterwards) is that this makes a push all in more correct. Right?

[Newt_Buggs]

he has 360 left and there's a 655, and he knows that you didn't hit the flop-I think that you have to call this. In the future though don't put yourself in the situation and raise less. If your table is really bad you could always raise more (something like 400+) and just plan on calling/pushing the rest of it since you will always have odds to.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
my problem is that i think that while you are likely behind, and i'm agreeing with a medium pair assessment, you're about 25% to win the hand against a medium pair, and i think you might need to take the odds given you, though they are worse than the odds you need, because being as short as you would be otherwise is not great.

however, i don't see why if you think that QQ-AA would checkraise this flop that 99-JJ would not as well, it seems intuitive that both sets of hands should be played pretty much the same way in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your post in general but disagree with two things:

1)You can still relatively easily come back from a t450 stack at level 2, so if he flashed me JJ, as opposed to some chance of AQ, I'd fold;

2)JJ doesn't checkraise here because a terrified, weak/tight opponent who limp/calls JJ early just wants the AK to fold already.

(2.5) People who limp JJ PF are weak/tight pansies and frankly deserve what they get when the AK feels pot committed, calls and sucks out on the river, as opposed to when he calls a raise and folds on the flop.)

(3)Why the hell did you raise that much PF)

[citanul]

adanthar,

i agree with you on all fronts. in part my reasoning is/was trying to follow through with the line that the hero chooses by making the raise so big preflop.

you're on a bit of a tear lately about playing JJ preflop. do you raise in lp with jj behind 4-5 limpers in lvl or 2? i find this to be more interesting than the utg question, personally.

i guess that yeah, 450 is not so horrible to come back from, particularly if this is an 800 chip game (i can't remember if it is right now, but i think it is). i've been spending a lot of my time lately that i've been spending thinking about the game thinking about spots where you hit "inflection points" or whatnot as the short stack, and should take less than good odds to try to get your way back into the game as a reasonable stack.

but that's for another thread on another day.

good to see you posting a bit more in teh last couple days.

citanul

[dfscott]

Ok, a bit more info.

1) This is a 22 (forgot to post that).

2) I sized my pre-flop raise using the (3+(2*limpers))*BB formula. At a 33, I might not raise so much, but at the 22s and below, I wanted a sizable bet to chase out the weak limpers.

3) I pushed the flop (not really relevant unless you're just dying to know what UTG had).

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
3) I pushed the flop (not really relevant unless you're just dying to know what UTG had).

[/ QUOTE ]

My money's on JJ. Tell me I'm wrong and he had 32o.

[nokona13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
my problem is that i think that while you are likely behind, and i'm agreeing with a medium pair assessment, you're about 25% to win the hand against a medium pair, and i think you might need to take the odds given you, though they are worse than the odds you need, because being as short as you would be otherwise is not great.

however, i don't see why if you think that QQ-AA would checkraise this flop that 99-JJ would not as well, it seems intuitive that both sets of hands should be played pretty much the same way in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your post in general but disagree with two things:

1)You can still relatively easily come back from a t450 stack at level 2, so if he flashed me JJ, as opposed to some chance of AQ, I'd fold;

2)JJ doesn't checkraise here because a terrified, weak/tight opponent who limp/calls JJ early just wants the AK to fold already.

(2.5) People who limp JJ PF are weak/tight pansies and frankly deserve what they get when the AK feels pot committed, calls and sucks out on the river, as opposed to when he calls a raise and folds on the flop.)

(3)Why the hell did you raise that much PF)

[/ QUOTE ]

adanthar, I'm interested in (2) and (2.5) here. UTG on level 2, I'm still in fold 22-44 and limp 55-JJ mode. Though I might c/r push JJ vs. a BB raise to 275, thinking the odds of AK-AJ are pretty big at this buy in. Do you consistently raise JJ UTG on level 2? Do you find that optimal?

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3) I pushed the flop (not really relevant unless you're just dying to know what UTG had).

[/ QUOTE ]

My money's on JJ. Tell me I'm wrong and he had 32o.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll reveal his hand once the thread dies down -- it's generated more discussion than I expected, and I don't want to give out info that I didn't have. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[citanul]

sizing your raises to roughly 3bb+1.5 or 2x(limpers limped chips) is all well and good as a guideline, but yeah, there's other things you need to take into account. the guideline is particularly good when basically it's a deepish stacked game and everyone has normalish sized stacks. the second that any player who is semi involved with the hand or is left to act behind you has either a really big stack or a small stack or anything like that, you have to start thinking in more than one way about your raise sizes.

particularly when you're putting &gt;~1/3 of your stack in. personally i like to start really really paying attention when i'm putting in more than 1/5 or so of my stack or when i'm putting in &gt;~1/3 of any opponent in the hand's stack. but again, those are more just like, random numbers than they should be considered hard and fast rules of any type. personally i also tend to veer closer to the 1.5 end of the 1.5 to 2x spectrum in all cases, though meh, that's not incredibly important.

i think rather than considering a formula, it's important to think of things like

how many chips am i putting in as a fraction of my stack?
how many chips am i putting in as a fraction of my likely opponents' stacks?
how often am i going to want to continue with my hand post flop?
ie, how likely do i think i'm going to be in good shape post flop?
where am i sitting?
what odds am i going to be getting on the flop assuming 1 or 2 or whatever callers if i raise this amount?

stuff like that is way more important to me than following a formula.

personally i again, find that formula to be best at the 800 chip games in lvl 1 with whatever number of limpers, the 800 chip games at lvl 2 with up to 2 limpers, and the 1000 chip games in lvl 1 and 2. beyond that, i think that you have to get a little more thinking about raises.

citanul

[citanul]

haha, you said "do you find that optimal."

i believe adanthar's response is going to say something like "why the [censored] are you folding 22-44?" and "yes, i'm raising JJ utg every time."

though i could be wrong.

citanul

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I sized my pre-flop raise using the (3+(2*limpers))*BB formula

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saabpo?

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
At a 33, I might not raise so much, but at the 22s and below, I wanted a sizable bet to chase out the weak limpers.


[/ QUOTE ]

I understand the problem. At the 22s, you can raise to 150 and get 3 callers.

But I think it's a mistake to raise to 275. You just cannot play the flop with that kind of raise. You have practically committed yourself to go all-in. Worse, you've committed your one caller to also go all-in.

I think you can raise it to 100. However, you'll get multiple callers, so you'll want to check/fold if the flop misses you. The other alternative is to push preflop. 120 chips is not bad when you have only 700 chips. You only have to fear a monster in the SB or BB, which is no reason not to push.

Lately, when the blinds hit 25/50 &amp; there are multiple limpers &amp; my stack is running a bit low, I've been pushing successfully with AK. I usually pick up a couple of hundred chips. Been called once by 99, which I won.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I sized my pre-flop raise using the (3+(2*limpers))*BB formula

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saabpo?

[/ QUOTE ]

nah g, his formula isn't (3+(2*limpers))*bb -&gt; oh [censored] it push.

citanul

[nokona13]

Whoops...

I'm mixing up my level 3-4 low PP strategy with my level 1-2 mid PP strategy. No I don't fold 22-44 UTG on level 2. But I have been limping JJ. And the optimal comment wasn't sarcastic or anything. I'm just acknowledging that adanthar's played WAY more tournaments, and has probably experimented a lot with more strategies than I've even thought of...

So would you play JJ basically as QQ, raising pre-flop and then betting out even with one over, slowing and re-evaluating opponent and board if called, folding if re-raised from a non-donk, non-LAG?

When I first came to this board, I read a post from someone apparently you and adanthar (and pretty much every other poster I respect who is in on the hooks thread) would strongly disagree with who said JJ should be played in STTs more like a mid-pair than a high pair early on.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I sized my pre-flop raise using the (3+(2*limpers))*BB formula

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saabpo?

[/ QUOTE ]

nah g, his formula isn't (3+(2*limpers))*bb -&gt; oh [censored] it push.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh-heh. Yeah, I probably am oversimplifying a bit, but when I multi-table, I (probably over-) use rules of thumb like this. In this case, I grimaced when I put in that much (probably my gut trying to tell me something).

In retrospect, I like a mix of jcm3ccc's line of pushing preflop mixed with the occasional smaller raise and check/folding a missed flop. I tend to fall in love with AK too often and end up walking back to Houston a lot.

And for kyro's benefit, he had JJ, which held up (nh kyro).

[citanul]

dude, there's another post, on the front page of this forum, with a big flame next to it, about playing jj early. i suppose one could ask in that thread more about how to play jj from other spots than utg, but yeah. this is a thread about AK /images/graemlins/smile.gif

i really don't like the idea of confining the way you play basically any hand to a small rule set. i think that not only is it bad, but it is really bad to tell others to play and think that way. particularly i think that it is a disservice to players who are playing the lower stakes games and eventually want to move up the ladder, as it detracts creativity from the game. not that this is a very creative type of poker or anything, but i mean, if you start doing things 100% of the time the same way, you're going to not be playing optimally at many levels.

citanul

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
i believe adanthar's response is going to say something like "why the [censored] are you folding 22-44?" and "yes, i'm raising JJ utg every time."

though i could be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks man. And you're right on /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Do I raise JJ behind 5 limpers? Around 90%. Once in a while, there's some guy whose limp I hate, or I'm in the SB and feel like a pansy. Usually, when there's that many people the pot gets big enough (over 150-200 chips in PF) for me to just push. I get the regular AQ fold and the occasional 88 call that way so it's +EV and may be better than raising.

If I'm on the button and in that 3-4 limper area I raise every time, but I don't vary the raise (maybe to 125 instead of 100 so that first guy can fold and not start a call cascade.) If everybody calls and an overcard hits I dump the hand. If not, it's usually a 300-400 chip pot at this point and I can vary between a 2/3 pot bet and a push (88 loves to call pushes on a 952 board, lemme tell ya.)

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
2) I sized my pre-flop raise using the (3+(2*limpers))*BB formula.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who gave you this formula? I don't like it.

Think of 3*BB + limpers, not 2*limpers. And notice your stack size. 275 is well more than 1/3 of your stack. If you're going to raise this much, PUSH. Especially with AK, as 40% of the time your winning card will pair on 4th or 5th street. You've only seen 60% of the board, and now you have a problem.

Raise it preflop to like 150 or 175. It accomplishes the same thing as 275, more or less.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2) I sized my pre-flop raise using the (3+(2*limpers))*BB formula.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who gave you this formula? I don't like it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not exactly sure, but when I was talking about it to another 2+2'er, they said "oh, the Daliman formula" (or was it Gigabet? I'm can't remember).

[ QUOTE ]
Think of 3*BB + limpers, not 2*limpers. And notice your stack size. 275 is well more than 1/3 of your stack. If you're going to raise this much, PUSH.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I use the 40% rule, but whatever.

[ QUOTE ]
Raise it preflop to like 150 or 175. It accomplishes the same thing as 275, more or less.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's the "more or less" part that bugs me. With a 150-175 bet, I'm check/folding a missed flop. With a larger bet, I'm pushing any flop.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not exactly sure, but when I was talking about it to another 2+2'er, they said "oh, the Daliman formula" (or was it Gigabet? I'm can't remember).

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it stinks.

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I use the 40% rule, but whatever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't make that a hard and fast rule. DON'T. There are hands you want to push with more than others. 99, or AK, for example. 9's because they're vulnerable postflop, and AK because it often needs all 5 board cards to win. QQ isn't the same, because it's easy to play postflop.

[ QUOTE ]
With a larger bet, I'm pushing any flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then why not push preflop? You raise with AK to limit the players, and build a potential pot. You've got no wiggle room with the stack you left behind. Push preflop, or raise less.

[kyro]

About the 3BB + 2BB/limper, I try only to use that for big made pairs. You have A-high. If you miss this flop, you don't have much FE. I raise less here too.

[adanthar]

One thing that ties in here and in the JJ thread:

I very rarely vary raise sizes. The closest I come is (for example) opening for 100 in L2 but raising for 125 with 2-3 people in. This is because some of the hands I raise, such as AK or JJ, aren't worth investing that big a chunk of my stack in PF.

The cost is that I frequently wind up seeing 3-4 way flops, both in and out of position, with hands like AK/JJ as well as aces. I don't have a problem with that, but it does mean I check/fold more flops than most people would (of course, by that same token, occasionally I'll also CR with aces.)

What winds up happening is that I play a lot of medium pots early. I don't mind that at all and I am +EV at every SNG level (in fact, PT says the level I am most +EV in is, by far, level 1), but YMMV. There is a relatively fine art to making raises without pot committing yourself, which is actually harder to do in lower SNG's (with less chips.) A lot of raises that take limpers into account cross over that line; they also sometimes invite plays back at you when people don't realize your 'extra big' raise is actually standard. Rather than get into those waters, I prefer keeping raises small in almost every case (exception: PF pushing to pwn limpers) and then playing poker when the flop hits since I can still often have enough stack for 2 big bets rather than one, etc. It often makes the difference between the flush draw + ace pushing on the flop and calling it/folding the turn.

Most 2+2'ers and half the rest of the higher limit SNG population are absolutely equal on the bubble because there's a mathematically correct way to play it and every regular does. The edge, therefore, has to come from prior to the bubble, and most of that for me is from playing flops. It's kinda similar to the small stakes forum, where a TAG at 2/4 is some guy with the right PF numbers who sucks postflop and can be run over. Same thing here; selective, aggressive postflop play early wins lots of chips.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't make that a hard and fast rule. DON'T. There are hands you want to push with more than others. 99, or AK, for example. 9's because they're vulnerable postflop, and AK because it often needs all 5 board cards to win. QQ isn't the same, because it's easy to play postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting -- I usually raise less with AK than with QQ for the exact opposite reason. With AK, I know if I've hit the flop - with QQ, if overcards fall I can't be sure if they hit my opponent or not.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't make that a hard and fast rule. DON'T. There are hands you want to push with more than others. 99, or AK, for example. 9's because they're vulnerable postflop, and AK because it often needs all 5 board cards to win. QQ isn't the same, because it's easy to play postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting -- I usually raise less with AK than with QQ for the exact opposite reason. With AK, I know if I've hit the flop - with QQ, if overcards fall I can't be sure if they hit my opponent or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read the chapter about AK in Sklansky's TPFAP.

[gasgod]

There's a ton of meat in these last two posts; I hope I'm good enough to digest it. In particular, I was one that voted to limp JJ, but now I'm beginning to see why it's not necessarily correct. (But maybe dependent on the player's skill set.) I truly appreciate it when good players explain these things in detail.

GG

[microbet]

If he has AA or KK I'll eat a hot dog at Kwik-E-Mart.

Given your pot odds, not insignificant chances of sucking out on a PP, and the fact that he would almost certainly make this bet on that board with the AT+ that he could well be holding - I prepare to put an 8th place finish in my spreadsheet, and then call.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG seemed solid. He played very few hands, but played them aggressively. Is this an easy spot to bail or do I let UTG put me all-in?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 (t1565)
CO (t640)
Hero (t700)
SB (t610)
BB (t1035)
UTG (t915)
UTG+1 (t480)
MP1 (t2055)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t30, CO calls t30, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t275</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls t245, MP2 folds, CO folds.

Flop: (t655) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t350</font>, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]


I would put all my chips in. If you aren't prepared to do this, you simply can't raise to 275 preflop and allow your opponent a free shot at a stop+go. Even if you are losing, you almost always have about 25% chance to win anyway, and you will be ahead more often than you think.

From a technical standpoint, raising to 275 and folding for your last 425 on this flop is flat out terrible.