I'm looking for spots to fold. [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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brazilio

05-22-2005, 11:14 PM

I've had a pretty brutal 10k hands at 2/4 this month. A ridiculously low W$SD with an even lower W$WSF, and I'm thinking about general ideas with my game. This would be against the reasonable loose passives that you see at 2/4, not so much the really aggressive doods you see at 3/6, along with the accompanying generally tighter players. Now I've always bought the line that calling down when you've got like AK. There are obvious situations where the semi-bluff potential from aggressive opponents requires a calldown, as well as straight up bluffing potential from your other opponents, but very quickly that type of opponent is found out. I find myself compelled to call down simply because I'm supposed to whenever I'm checkraised with two-pair and I've got an overpair or some such simply because of the argument that in future hands, an observant opponent knows he can take a shot at me. But there aren't observant opponents at 2/4 and below, and the ones at 3/6 and above our behavior is different anyway, because if they're observant, then they're usually proficient enough to know when to bluff and semibluff correctly, and we've already discussed altering our own behavior to accomodate that.

I guess my question is this, on the big streets, especially the river as it's a more passive street, is bet/folding against a typical player pretty much every time we've got nothing but a pair/overpair a leak?

I have trouble folding especially overpairs, but also top pair as well.and I'm really trying hard to work on it.

Here are a few examples. I know this is a general question and I'm posting specific hands.

#1 is easy IMO, it's a passive calling station.
#2 isn't nearly as easy to me, but the calldown isn't worth it against this TAG, it's an obvious AA ploy to get an extra BB out of me on the turn.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
3 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB calls, MP3 folds, CO folds.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB
--------------------------------------------------
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero caps, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (21.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO raises, UTG+1 folds, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (16.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
Hero bets, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO raises, Hero folds, MP3 calls.

River: (21.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
MP3 checks, CO bets, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 22.75 BB
-----------------------------------------------

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
3 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, CO calls, 3 folds, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, MP1 calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, MP1 raises, Hero folds, CO calls.

Final Pot: 13.25 BB

Third villain was a dicer, .7 PFA. I'm not making enough folds, and these are the type hands I'm not folding because I'm autocalling down when I'm 8-tabling and I still don't have much time to look at reads before making a decision.

Any of these hands abnormal folds?

27offsooot

05-22-2005, 11:20 PM

I'm calling 2 and 3, 1 seems fine to fold, but i would've raised PF. He could've had JJ/1010 and waited for a safe turn in 2.

Edit - I guess 3 looks fine as well given the opponent and the fact that he's c/ring a protected pot on the river and all.

brettbrettr

05-22-2005, 11:21 PM

Hand 1, raise pre-flop. Given your read the fold seems fine.
Hand 2, I'm not folding that turn. I"m calling down.
Hand 3 looks ok. Sucks, but looks ok.

mr pink

05-23-2005, 12:01 AM

hand 1 - raise preflop to not give the blinds a free look and to isolate mp limper. also i think this is fine given the size of the pot.

hand 2 - terrible fold, you're getting like 21:1 ON THE TURN

hand 3 - yeah, this seems ok.

brazilio

05-23-2005, 12:10 AM

Maybe somebody else agrees with you, but I'd never imagine JJ or TT playing the flop like that. When you're waiting for a safe turn, you check/call, not raise and call the 3-bet, then raise the turn in a field.

27offsooot

05-23-2005, 12:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe somebody else agrees with you, but I'd never imagine JJ or TT playing the flop like that. When you're waiting for a safe turn, you check/call, not raise and call the 3-bet, then raise the turn in a field.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, i misread the action. I understand why u put three hands in one post, but i confused something along the way.

brazilio

05-23-2005, 12:28 AM

Hey, my last 1000 hands, I've had a W$WSF of 22. Here you go. There is no other hand he'll coldcall 3 with and raise the turn with other than TT. None. Same TAG as the QQ hand.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, Button calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, Button raises, UTG folds, Hero folds.

That last hand was just icing on the cake of suck. I'm sure all you doods are gonna say I just lost money.

heropretend

05-23-2005, 07:56 AM

you're right, he has TT, nothing else makes sense.

hand 2, there's no way you can fold. i think even if you're like 95% certain he has AA, you have odds to call now for your set.

billyjex

05-23-2005, 08:05 AM

fold in hand 2 is atrocious.

i call river on hand 3. i mean, wtf does that stat really tell us? how many hands is that over? he's more passive than us but that doesn't mean he can't get fucktardedly donkish sometimes. you shouldn't start looking for folds getting 13:1 w/ an overpair on the river.

chief444

05-23-2005, 08:09 AM

#1 seems fine given the description. But raise that preflop.

#2 is a pretty big pot. I'd call. If I were CO I'd probably play TT-QQ as he did. At the very least they're possible enough that I think you need to call here. You're about getting odds to river a set anyway.

Hand 3 I think the fold is fine. He isn't check/raising as a bluff with two opponents, one who has shown your aggression. He both expects and wants calls here.

Petteri

05-23-2005, 08:11 AM

Fold #1 is ok.

Fold #2 is awful mistake. Pot is so big you should absolutely call down.

Fold #3 is questionsome. You are getting 11-1 on call. I would have called river.

chief444

05-23-2005, 08:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
There is no other hand he'll coldcall 3 with and raise the turn with other than TT. None.

[/ QUOTE ]
JJ? I would actually expect him to raise the flop with TT. I think if he didn't he's making a costly mistake.

brazilio

05-23-2005, 09:30 AM

I'm actually very surprised people are advocating a call on my AA hand. Isn't it obvious I'm beaten here? I thought this was standard stuff, even if that QQ hand wasn't. Am I the only one that gives the utmost respect to a checkraise into a field?

Petteri

05-23-2005, 09:54 AM

You get 12-1 on call, board is scary, but flop and turn action suggests you should call. To fold you must be absolutely sure you are beaten. I think you cannot be more than 90 % sure you are beaten.

Tricky player could ie. check-raise pair of kings on river on this scary board.

brazilio

05-23-2005, 10:13 AM

I've never seen a checkraise into a field be less than the goods on the big streets unless it's from the hugely maniacal maniacs I play, and this was just a LAP standard superhigh VP$IP donk. I'm not 90% sure I'm beaten here, I'm way over 90% sure I'm beaten. I'm open to discussion, but I don't see any possibility for it being anything but a flush.

Knoler

05-23-2005, 10:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm actually very surprised people are advocating a call on my AA hand. Isn't it obvious I'm beaten here? I thought this was standard stuff, even if that QQ hand wasn't. Am I the only one that gives the utmost respect to a checkraise into a field?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not that I don't think he has you beat. He probably does. He just doesn't have you beat often enough to make your fold a profitable one. Plus, if people notice you're willing to fold for one bet in big (or even huge) pots, they're going to start taking shots. I've seen a non-trivial amount of river bluff raising lately. (Which is anecdotal evidence, I know...)

Anyhow, in hand 3 it only costs you one bet to win 12. Therfore, you're going to have to be right about your fold well over 90% of the time to even make that a profitable fold. ...and I don't think that's a reasonable assumption with typical Party 2/4 players. I don't really like having CO left to act after you, but it isn't likely he's all of a sudden going to wake up and 3-bet.

It's also worth noting that the notion you save "one whole big bet" isn't accurate. The amount you save (in BB) by folding = the # of times you would have called and lost - the # of bets you lost by folding the winning hand occasionally. I believe that folding is -EV. And if it's +EV, it's not by much.

In other words, making folds like these is not the key to solving your slump.

Regards,
-Brian

ps - I feel similarly about hand 2. Can't fold in that gigantic pot. Straights are possible, but CO can't have one. JJ, TT, or a rare QQ are all possibilities. (As are, of course, AA and KK.) Do you realize you're getting around 21:1 on the turn? That's nearly enough to draw to your 2-outer rivered set!

chief444

05-23-2005, 10:15 AM

As I said in my first post, I agree with you 100%. If you won this even as often as 1 in 20 times I'd be very surprised.

brazilio

05-23-2005, 10:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm actually very surprised people are advocating a call on my AA hand. Isn't it obvious I'm beaten here? I thought this was standard stuff, even if that QQ hand wasn't. Am I the only one that gives the utmost respect to a checkraise into a field?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not that I don't think he has you beat. He probably does. He just doesn't have you beat often enough to make your fold a profitable one. Plus, if people notice you're willing to fold for one bet in big (or even huge) pots, they're going to start taking shots. I've seen a non-trivial amount of river bluff raising lately. (Which is anecdotal evidence, I know...)

Anyhow, in hand 3 it only costs you one bet to win 12. Therfore, you're going to have to be right about your fold well over 90% of the time to even make that a profitable fold. ...and I don't think that's a reasonable assumption with typical Party 2/4 players. I don't really like having CO left to act after you, but it isn't likely he's all of a sudden going to wake up and 3-bet.

It's also worth noting that the notion you save "one whole big bet" isn't accurate. The amount you save (in BB) by folding = the # of times you would have called and lost - the # of bets you lost by folding the winning hand occasionally. I believe that folding is -EV. And if it's +EV, it's not by much.

In other words, making folds like these is not the key to solving your slump.

Regards,
-Brian

ps - I feel similarly about hand 2. Can't fold in that gigantic pot. Straights are possible, but CO can't have one. JJ, TT, or a rare QQ are all possibilities. (As are, of course, AA and KK.) Do you realize you're getting around 21:1 on the turn? That's nearly enough to draw to your 2-outer rivered set!

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not folding my AA hand HU.

SoSo

05-23-2005, 10:52 AM

Hand 1: [censored] the fold the preflop has/will screw you in this spot:
Why not raise here preflop? not only do u gain contorl of the hand for the flop so you can set up the turn and river, you always are going to get better odds to chase your flush/str8 draws.

Hand 2: Bad Fold:
Call down ur getting 20.75 : 1 to hit ur 2 outter (excluding the pay off on the river and possibly more should he be on a set as well).

How can you exlude jj-88 here played agressively?

Hand 3: Good Fold:
getting 12:1 on the river call, so coin toss really could be playing tp wierdly, the only hands i can see the villian being on are Kxc or Kx for a rivered two pair....so fold its a fold in my book.

-chris

coolhanded

05-23-2005, 11:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
There is no other hand he'll coldcall 3 with and raise the turn with other than TT. None.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about A /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif? Could cap that or just cold call a 3-bet, IMO.