Mini Step 5 with AK. Correct fold?

[wegs the wegs]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">SB (t2300)</font>
Hero (t1870)
UTG (t3500)
<font color="#C00000">Button (t2330)</font>

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t2330 (All-In)</font>, SB calls t2100 (All-In), <font color="#666666"> <font color="black"> Hero... </font>

<font color="black">
It was an all-in fest at this point. This was my first Step 5 but I was shocked at the fishiness that was still there. Everyone was tight up until 5, then there was an all-in every hand after that point.

I figured that if I fold I move up one more spot but it puts me at the low stack of 1500 compared to 4600 and 3500. If I call I may be facing any pair or two face cards from both players. If I win Im at 5400 against a 3500 and a 1400. Playing it out I believe that Im about 40% to win it.

So what's the move. I guess it's the age old question of playing it safe or playing to win, but is this the right time to 'go for the win'? I figure that if I fold I have 3 hands of breathing room, which could be enough to double up or even move up another spot.

Thoughts???</font>

[Nick M]

Defintely fold here...one of them is busting. You fold this and you got money.

[wegs the wegs]

Well yeah in a normal SnG this is an auto-fold. But with the Mini Step 5 im already locked in with $300. One more spot bumps it to $500. $200 difference. Chip leader with 3 to go about 40% risking 60% taking $300 vs low stack with $500?

[lastchance]

Mini Step-5 structure puts $2000 in first, $1000 to second, $500 to third, $300 to 4th, right?

I think with that structure, you call easy with a 40% chance to win.

[slavic]

I'm just not a bird in hand type of person I call.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
It was an all-in fest at this point. This was my first Step 5 but I was shocked at the fishiness that was still there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm interested in your point about fishiness. Are you defining that by the sheer volume of pushes or calls?

[ QUOTE ]
Button raises to t2330 (All-In), SB calls t2100 (All-In), Hero...

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you need to answer my first question to help with this one. What hand range do you put SB on?

Furthermore, IMO, the structure of this tournament does not reflect the need to take chances here. If it was first place only - THEN easy call.

Scuba
Whose instincts say that a fold here is correct.

[The Yugoslavian]

I'd fold here....

With 500 more chips in my stack I'd call.

Yugoslav

[wegs the wegs]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm interested in your point about fishiness. Are you defining that by the sheer volume of pushes or calls?


[/ QUOTE ]

Well I was just shocked at the hands that were being preflop in the early going. One hand in the second round I had AKo in the BB. 4 people limped to me, I raised it 6x the BB. Only UTG called. Flop came AK7 rainbow. I bet half the pot, he called. Turn was a 2, putting two clubs on board, and the pot was bigger than my stack so I pushed. He called and showed K7s. $430 tourney and you call UTG and then a large raise with K7s?

Another player had 1600 when it was down to seven people and blinds were at 50/100. He began pushing almost every hand. He was able to knock out a small stack when his K3o open push from the CO was called by QQ in the SB and rivered trip threes. He continued to do this, adding blinds now and then. Well the big stack eventually called and had AK when the fool pushed for the 4th time that orbit and knocked him out, no money for him. I guess I just dreamed of nothing but experts in a tourney like that, but I guess I overestimated them... or underestimated my abilities (nah).

I folded the hand. Button showed 86o and SB showed AK. A king hit the turn and I would have split with the SB. I was able to outlast the SB overall when he lost a coinflip to the other guy. Heads up the blinds were at 300/600 and my stack was at about 2000 compared to his 8000, so while I did last a few hands it was only a matter of time before luck ran out and I took second place. $1000 ain't too shabby when it was a $6 investment.