Why can't I win on weekends?

[suited_ace]

I've been playing the $10+1 at Party for the last month and a half. I'm yet to show a profit on a weekend. They've been absolutely terrible to me.

I have a 3% ROI on weekdays (which is far from good, I know), and my ROI on weekends is -17%. There's obviously something in my play that is producing this, I just can't put my finger on it. I went through HH after HH and I just don't see any differences in my play.

There's obviously a lot more fish on weekends, so that should account for an increased variance, but not as much as to have such an impact on my results.

What do you think I should look for in my play to find the reason for such results?

[ur2god]

i have this problem too, its just too many ppl chasing,
sucking u out. my solution is goto the 20 dollar table
or just put ur chips in when u know ur the clear favorite.

OK. Reach down. Grab your nut sack. Are there 2 balls in there?

[SuitedSixes]

How about not playing weekends? It is SO in your head that you can't win on weekends that you won't.

[Ogre]

Bad luck?

I don't know if you were replying to me or no, but i can't stop laughing.

[Maulik]

It is possible that your set of weekend games is statistically insignificant and you could be running bad during the weekends. POSSIBLE.

[Bluff Daddy]

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or just put ur chips in when u know ur the clear favorite.

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this is good advice

[suited_ace]

[ QUOTE ]
How about not playing weekends? It is SO in your head that you can't win on weekends that you won't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's exactly what I'm gonna do, but there must be something I'm doing that's not helping me out, and I wouldn't mind figuring out what the hell is it.

[beeyjay]

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[ QUOTE ]
OK. Reach down. Grab your nut sack. Are there 2 balls in there?

[/ QUOTE ] Bad Luck?

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This is hillarious.

But as for the op, you need to adjust to your table. You might have to penalize/dissuade them from chasing more by pushing instead of betting pot or something like this. Also I think you can tighten up some as well as everybody else is more likely to bust each other and you can just fold into the money. (obviuosly not literally but you git the point)

[Scuba Chuck]

I know your problem, but I won't give it.

Scuba
($$$)

[valenzuela]

theories:
1)u have a small sample size.
2)u cant beat the 11s.
3)u suck at weekends.
Im going with number 1, ure just having bad luck oh and looser players dont increase variance.

[Blarg]

The play is looser, and you're losing more. So probably you're not adapting to the looser games.

Loose games have people who call too much, push too much, or both. On the 10's, it's generally that they call too much. That's what you'll have to adapt to.

Expect your pushes to get called. A lot. Even when it makes no sense whatever to be calling you.

When everybody calls you all the time, your variance will go up no matter how good a player you are, because stealing blinds is extremely important in SNG's, and you won't be able to try it without seeing a lot of showdowns. That's not necessarily either good or bad, because the variance could be upward too, but lets luck play a bigger part in your game. You will either win or lose a lot of money really fast when so many of your steal attempts -- and legit hands too -- see a showdown.

You can do your best to inject some skill into the equation in these looser games by being adjusting your steals so that they're determined more by showdown value than by the things these players don't pay as much attention to as they should, like comparative stack sizes and positions.

If people are calling their whole stacks to defend 7-5 offsuit, in other words, stealing because of stack sizes and position won't work. You won't get free blinds; you'll get called. These players don't care about or understand stack sizes or position; they just don't want you to bully them, especially when they could make an inside straight.

So instead of putting too much reliance on ferreting out the smart move, see if you can try to put yourself in the position to benefit from the dumb one.

[vindikation]

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OK. Reach down. Grab your nut sack. Are there 2 balls in there?

[/ QUOTE ]

LMFAO!!!

Thank you. I just bubbled out in 4th place to a 2 outer on the river in my first $30 SnG. For some strange reason, after reading that quote I feel a HELL of a lot better.

[DasLeben]

Interestingly enough, I've been finding that weekends are a good bit tighter than weekdays. Of course this is quite possibly a result of an insignificant sample, but those are just my observations.

I think the biggest thing that I had to learn when it comes to dealing with loose games is the science of conserving FE. If you start pushing every +EV opportunity starting in level 4, you're going to get called by Qx in level 5. Guaranteed. Suddenly pushing in your normal spots will become -EV since people will see an ace or a king and try to take you down.

So, the solution to this: Build up t1200 or more and just cruise through level 4. Don't waste your FE when you're only picking up t150 in blinds. Wait until the blinds hit 100/200 and then open up. Yes, you'll probably pass up a few +EV opportunities in level 4. That's okay. You're going for a bigger edge later on when the blinds are worth something.

I dunno. Maybe you already know this and I'm preaching to the choir. Just some thoughts though.

[suited_ace]

Blarg, I think you nailed it perfectly. The question now is finding out how much I should change my game so I won't end up blinded out.

I can easily see how to change my game when I'm shortstacked, but I have no idea about my ultra-shortstacked game. I guess playing and finding out on my own is the best way to go.

[suited_ace]

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So, the solution to this: Build up t1200 or more and just cruise through level 4.

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More often than not I'm shortstacked when level 4 kicks in. It's not easy to build up to t1200 not depending on cards when your opponents are playing No Fold'em, I play levels 1-3 very, very tight.

[ QUOTE ]
Don't waste your FE when you're only picking up t150 in blinds. Wait until the blinds hit 100/200 and then open up. Yes, you'll probably pass up a few +EV opportunities in level 4. That's okay. You're going for a bigger edge later on when the blinds are worth something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that might be an interesting point. Again, I have to go through my HHs to see if it really makes sense, but this could be an answer to the problem.

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[45suited]

I agree about waiting until the blinds get higher to steal. I play the 10s all the time, and I don't ever bother trying to steal until at least they are 50-100. Even at 25-50, I'll often fold my SB in an unopened pot if I don't have something worth playing. This builds up my FE for when the blinds are worth something and then I relentlessly hammer the BB with pushes in unopened pots. Also, if these guys are so passive, maybe you should go ahead and limp into a pot now and then with a connector and try to hit a flop during level 1. It's worth a shot as long as they will pay you off... And as long as you can lay down marginal TP hands.

[DeathbySuckout]

I just moved up to the $22s a couple weeks ago, but I spent a lot of time in the $11s before that, and there is not much difference. Here are a couple things I have learned playing both levels.
-Don't ever, ever chase
-Don't ever, ever bluff
-If you do happen to double up early, don't loosen up. Save your chips
-Don't worry about going into level 4 short stacked. Playing tight early puts you in this position, and we all find ourselves here most of the time.
-If you have a decent stack, don't steal blinds in levels 3 & 4, just for the sake of stealing, or just because everyone else is. BUT, play a good hand if you're dealt it.
-When it's time to be aggressive, be very aggressive, and don't play in fear
-Before you call a push, take a couple extra seconds to think about it, even if it seems like an auto-call
-Don't ever, ever, ever give up. I took 3rd place in one over the weekend after getting down to 30 chips. Of course it helped getting 4 great hands in a row to push with.
-Really pay attention to the other players. Pick your spots to push. Push any 2 when you think you can get away with it, but don't push any 2 into a big stack that has been calling just about everything that comes his way.
I guess the biggest thing is to know that when you push at this level, you can get called at any time with anything. Don't let it get to you. Don't let it affect what you do on the next hand. That takes a lot of practice.

Also, weekends really are the softest games, and very profitable. It sounds like you just need to adjust some things in your game, and you'll know how good weekends are.
Good luck