an pivotal hand in a big tournament

[Temp Hutter]

I enjoy reading various hand stories so I decided to share one of my favorites. It is from the 10K WPT event at Foxwoods last November:

It is after the dinner break on the first day. The hero has just over T30K in chips and the villain has about 2 or 3K more than the hero. The average is somewhere around T15K. The blinds are 300-600 with a 75 ante. Hero has not played many pots at this table and has a fairly tight image. The villain (a solid player from what I have seen so far) is in middle position and raises to T2,400 (most of table had been raising to T1,800 or T2,000). Everyone folds to the hero in the SB who has KK. Hero raises an additional T4,000 to try and take the pot down right there. Villian hesitates a few seconds and calls. The flop comes Q-Q-4. Hero decides to find out where he stands and bets T6,000 (just less than half the pot). His thinking is that if the villian calls or raises hero is in trouble and will get out. The villian thinks for about a minute and raises all-in. Hero will still have almost T19,000 in chips if he folds.

Hero's immediate instinct is to fold. He hesitates before folding to think about what has happened to this point. What hands could the villain be holding? If he had A-Q would he have called the initial T4,000 raise before the flop? If he had AA wouldn't he have raised a smaller amount and wouldn't he have re-reraised before the flop? If he had QQ wouldn't he be playing that hand much slower than pushing all-in? I don't think he would have called the T4,000 raise with pocket 4's. My best guess is that he has KK or JJ. I do not think he would make this play with A-K.

Should our hero put his tournament life at stake right here based on a read of JJ? Should he just fold and wait for a better situation?

So after about 3 minutes our hero decides...

[Tyler Durden]

Hero decides to call and see JJ or TT. Hero finished 2nd in this tourney and needed many chips to do so, so this is probably one of the large pots that hero dragged.

[shaniac]

Man, Tyler, such a spoilsport.

[Punker]

Assuming a 9 handed table, the pot is 675+600+300+2400+6400 = 10375, and he has to call 4000 more, with both having over 20K behind. Is AQ so unreasonable a hand here?

That said, I'd call. However, I would imagine hero folded, since his bet (based on your description) was made with the intention of folding to an all in.

[SossMan]

I don't rule out AA there just because he didn't reraise preflop. And if he's capable of doing this with JJ/TT, then he's capable of doing it w/ AK. The play with JJ/TT is essentially a bluff anyway, trying to represent a queen or AA. If he's putting you on AK, why wouln't he wait until the turn to milk a little more, or at lease see if a K or A comes off.
There's always the chance that's he using his image to represent the queen as well and is running a bluff (since it would seem that hero is a good player to run a bluff against, possessing both tight and thinking tendancies).

That and you are getting 45:19 or about 2.5:1 to call here. I think that you have to call.

[MLG]

check the flop.

[SossMan]

wawb?

[MLG]

yup, but more. see, if you now check call the flop it puts the fear of god in a thinking opponent, so if you check the turn you will get to showdown cheap (although you may lose a tiny bit of value against JJ/1010). If he fires on the turn again there is no way your hand is good. If he checks behind the flop though he will very likely need to call a small bet on the turn or the river with JJ/1010 to protect against a missed AK.

[Iconoclastic]

My read probably wouldn't have been JJ, but I'm a firm believer that you win and lose with your reads so you gotta go with your gut. Your immediate instinct was to fold-prolly the right play.

Based on your written account and fleshed out with my own imagination, my preflop read would have been nonhigh PP or medium/low suited connectors, in addition to high PP and high Aces. I don't really like the raise to 6400 as you're still giving odds to a PP for a set and a chance for players who read you as tight to outplay you postflop. He could very well have called preflop with Aces- I do it quite often myself to trap lower pairs or high cards. Depending on his reads he might have pushed the Flop with any of the following- bluffing with a PP or stone cold, a 4, a Q, or a high PP. I doubt he had a FH or quads because usually one would not play that fast.

Your pot odds in this hand are about 30%.

Opponent's hand/chances of winning against
Lower PP or 4/~87%
Stone Cold/81%
AA/8%
FH/15%
Quads/1%
Q/9%

Looks like a call to me.

[Scooterdoo]

Tough situtation. I'm 50/50 regarding what I would do and it would depend on my read at the table. That said, I'm not sure I agree with your logic regarding the villian not having AA, AQ or 44. I think all are possible. The preflop bet looks most like AQ, but some players are very paranoid about getting bad beats with AA and would raise a bit more and when you come over the top they slow down to disguise and trap. The 44 seems less likely, but again, some people like to play small pocket pairs this way every once in a while; especially if they have been card dead for several rounds. I could certainly see this being AQ and with the villian wanting to put an end to it quickly with the push.

[Temp Hutter]

Hero called and became one of the chip leaders at the time because villian only had JJ. Most of the table commented that it was a call that they would not have made. Oh well, it worked.

[Mammux]

Well played, the slightly oversized preflop raise also made me think JJ, but it's still a scary call to make.

-Magnus

[nightlyraver]

I have been in similar spots, though not in 10K tourneys or anything like that. As far as I remember, similar hands have come my way two or three times in the last month or so. I called after about 10 seconds of deliberation every time and won huge pots every time. The fact is, you're only really afraid of EXACTLY AQ or AA. Your analysis holds true for why AA or AQ are less than likely holdings. Every time I've been in this spot, I've been shown jacks or tens or something like that. I think I actually was shown AK once. If you call and double up, you're probably scooping up a HUGE pot and will be in great shape going forward.

One thing I want to add to your analysis: By pushing the original raiser would have to be playing VERY tricky. He would have had to be thinking something like this: I thought he was on a steal when he popped it preflop, so I made this frisky call with my AQ; he just bet into me so he either has a good pocket pair or is on a bluff; I probably have a lock hand and he surely will shut down if I just call; If I push, he may just call w/ AA,KK or JJ suspecting I'm on a bluff; After all, why would such a strong hand push in this spot?

[Mammux]

[ QUOTE ]
He hesitates before folding to think about what has happened to this point.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is the important lesson in the hand.

-Magnus