They call me Scott "The Telemarketer" Zimmerman

[Scotch78]

SB is 21/13/33 over 500 hands, with AFs of 2.4/3/3.7, but otherwise unknown. The plan was to raise a safe turn.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8 BB

Scott

[Alobar]

weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeak

[dhaimon]

the J is as safe as it gets. raise flop, raise turn, raise river. raise somewhere.

[wowacedude]

hah, funny.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
The plan was to raise a safe turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

The plan should be to raise any turn card. If you didn't like the turn card, I think raising the river should still be considered since you are less likely to be 3-bet by two pair on the river.

Krishan

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The plan was to raise a safe turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

The plan should be to raise any turn card. If you didn't like the turn card, I think raising the river should still be considered since you are less likely to be 3-bet by two pair on the river.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice post.
-James

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
The plan should be to raise any turn card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think raising any turn is superior to raising any non T-K turn card?

[ QUOTE ]
think raising the river should still be considered since you are less likely to be 3-bet by two pair on the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I thought about raising the river for that reason, but simply couldn't think of a range of hands that I would be beating at least 50% of the time. There are a lot of two-pair or better hands I could see the villain holding, but KQ is the only one pair hand that would make a lot of sense.

Scott

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The plan should be to raise any turn card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think raising any turn is superior to raising any non T-K turn card?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your giving your opponent way too much credit for a hand. I could make these bets if I thought you could fold with a lone T, any Q, j9, and lots of other junk.

Krishan

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
Your giving your opponent way too much credit for a hand

[/ QUOTE ]

What range of hands do you put the SB on that I beat 2/3 of the time on the turn and/or 1/2 the time on the river? Unless you answer that question, I simply do not see how raising can be +EV.

Scott

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your giving your opponent way too much credit for a hand

[/ QUOTE ]

What range of hands do you put the SB on that I beat 2/3 of the time on the turn and/or 1/2 the time on the river? Unless you answer that question, I simply do not see how raising can be +EV.

Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

I repeat, "I could make these bets if I thought you could fold with a lone T, any Q, j9, and lots of other junk."

Krishan

[LImitPlayer]

I like raising the river

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
I repeat, "I could make these bets if I thought you could fold with a lone T, any Q, j9, and lots of other junk."

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying that you will bluff all three streets against a TAG who raised pre-flop when there are three paint cards on the board, and do so often enough to put me ahead 2/3 of the time on the turn 1/2 the time on this river?

Scott

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying that you will bluff all three streets against a TAG who raised pre-flop when there are three paint cards on the board,

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding? I'm value betting against your A2, AT, 88.

Krishan

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I thought about raising the river for that reason, but simply couldn't think of a range of hands that I would be beating at least 50% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

please tell me you arent serious??

seriously, u are just [censored] with us right?

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
please tell me you arent serious??

seriously, u are just [censored] with us right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I honestly do not think that I'm ahead 50% of the time on this river. That's why I keep asking for someone to put my opponent on a range of hands. I would not have posted if I thought my play was obviously wrong or right, so I am very curious why people think it is obviously wrong.

Scott

[purnell]

Your play was weak. Maybe wait for the turn if your opponent is tight on the flop, otherwise raise the flop and bet the turn. If you are three bet on the flop you can call down.

[naphand]

You are playing the SB, he will come in with potentially quite an array of cards. Your stats do show him as pretty tight and quite aggressive post-flop, but we have little notion of how he plays his blinds. Why did you not post his fold in the SB figures? Much more relevant.

The Turn J is reasonably safe to raise as SB has to consider the possibility of AK, which destroys anything less for him. You raise the Turn, a 3-bet would be nasty and you would have to consider folding the River unimproved. I cannot put him on AK though and he probably is not crazy enough to pull a 3-bet with TPTK.

You simply cannot put this guy on QT, AK QJ, 98 when he is only leading at you. I see that flop bet a lot form certain players in the blinds, they do it as a bluff (presumably putting me on overs) or with pretty much any part of the board. Although the above hands are possible you really need to decide where you are putting in your raise.

Raising the flop helps you define and play the rest of the hand, but may not get maximum value. You have a big hand, its HU, waiting for the Turn is OK. The J is "somewhat" twitchy as it does complete some draws or two-pair hands, you can still improve on the River if so.

I like krishans reasoning for raising the River, and yes I think you are ahead on this River most of the time and it will be very difficult for opponent to 3-bet you, you need to decide if you are folding to a 3-bet anywhere or calling it. This player is very aggro on the River, he must bet for value a lot, and raise a lot, he may CR a lot too (he isn't here though).

You have shown no willingness to test his hand, this is a value-bet from one-pair hand like KQ, Qx, AQ, KT a bunch really. I think the Turn is good to raise if you believe he has a decent pair, he will be very concerned about AK.

EDIT: I don't get the title?

[Shoe]

[ QUOTE ]
SB is 21/13/33

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so the 21 and 13 are VPIP and PFR, what does the 33 represent?

[StellarWind]

Raise the turn. You have much too good a hand to just call down.

As for waiting until the river, what was once a pure bluff may now be a legitimate straight or flush draw. The list of hands that will call the turn but not the river is very long. On the other hand, this QJT board looks unbearable from the other side of the table. I don't think you can count on him bluffing this river with a bust.

Get yourself paid. Next time he gets the aces.