From Chip Leader to Bust - Party $200K Tourney Analysis

[Lloyd]

I had a rollercoaster of a tournament last night in the Party $200K Guaranteed MTT. I got great cards and good luck to build a stack of over T15k in the 2nd hour - T3k more than the person 2nd in chips in the entire tourney. Then, a complete meltdown and I lost my entire stack in about 10 minutes.

Some people build a big stack through lots of aggression. These people can lose that stack fairly quickly. But I'm not like that. I play pretty solid poker with just enough moves to keep people off guard. But I think there is a huge leak in my game that many people will relate to. This is reflected in the last couple of hands and what I'd like the most discussion about.

At the same time, I used my stack wisely in the building stage. I think there are a least a few good examples of how to use chips to ones advantage.

So, here's an analysis of my entire tourney. I'm including all of the hands I played or considered playing. Like I said, I'm most interested in the last couple but if by posting the entire tourney someone finds value then great.

Hand 1
First hand of the tourney and I'm dealt A /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif in MP+1. UTG+2 calls and I make it T60. Everyone folds and I win the first pot.

Hand 3
I'm UTG+2 w/A /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif. UTG calls and I call. In the past I've thrown away hands like these from EP but I'm trying to loosen up when the stacks are fairly deep (which they are in this tourney - 1500 chips and blinds starting at 10/15). One more caller plus the SB completes and the BB checks - 5 players total and the pot is T75.

The flop is 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Everyone checks to MP who bets T65. SB calls and it's folded to me. I call getting 3 to 1 odds with the nut flush and an overcard and closing the action. The pot is T270.

The turn is the 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif giving me the nut flush. The SB bets T150. I call and MP folds. The pot is T570.

The river is the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB bets T600. There is a possibility of a straight flush but decide that if he has it then it's not meant to be. He has T655 left so if I raise it's all-in. I pushed. He called w/ a Q high flush and I'm up to T3135.

Hand 5
I'm dealt 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif UTG. Again, I'd normally throw away a small pair from EP but with a nice stack I want to see some flops. I call but miss the flop and fold.

Hand 6
I'm in the BB with 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif One caller and a raise to T45. I call as does the EP caller. I miss the flop and once again fold.

Hand 13
No cards for the last 7 hands but I've got A /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif UTG+1. I limp and there are 2 more callers plus the BB. The pot is T70. The flop is 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I bet T50 and win the pot.

Hand 14
I'm dealt 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif UTG and call. One caller plus the SB completes and the BB checks. I miss the flop and fold to a bet.

Hand 15
I've got J /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif in the BB (blinds still 10/15). 3 callers and myself see the flop and the pot is T70.

The flop is 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I've got top pair with a weak kicker and want to see what the action is like. I check and it's checked around. The turn is the 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and I lead out with a bet of T40 and get one caller. The river is the 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif and it goes check check. I beat the villain's A4.

Hand 17
My stack is at T3190. I've got 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in the CO. One caller, I limp and the BB checks. I miss the flop and fold to the action.

Hand 35
I've got T3135 and haven't played in awhile. No cards to even limp with (lots of hands like Q5) and I'm not stealing this early. Blinds are 10/20. I've got Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif in the BB. Folded to the button who calls T20 and I raise to T80. Okay, so maybe I'm trying to steal. I haven't played in awhile and I don't want my first raise in 20 minutes to be with AA and just win the blinds. I figured this was a good opportunity to give a little action. Button calls me and the pot is T170.

The flop is 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif (missing me completely) and I lead out with T90. I think this represents have top pair and protecting a little against a possible draw. He folds and I win the pot.

Hand 43
And this is why I wanted to give a little action where possible. I'm dealt A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in the BB (blinds now 15/30). UTG+1 pushes with a tiny stack of T75. UTG+2 (with T1140) calls. MP+2 (with T1720) mini-raises to T120. The pot is now T315 and I raise to T300. I think that's enough to get the limper to fold and be heads up with the MP+2 raiser along with the small side pot. That's exactly what happens and the pot is now T765.

The flop is 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. So I've got the big overpair and the case /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I check. I think this can easily represent being afraid of the diamonds and hope that the villain will bet but he checks behind.

The turn is J /images/graemlins/club.gif and I lead out for just over a 1/2 pot size bet of T400. I think people read that size of a bet too often as being a sign of weakness. He calls.

The river is 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. There is T1565 and the villain has T1020 left. I bet T500. If he has a decent hand he should call that. He'll still have enough chips to play. He calls with QQ and I'm up to T4580.

Hand 45
I've got A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif in the CO. Blinds are 15/30 and MP+1 makes it T90. I raise to T200 and the CO calls. The pot is T445.

Flop is 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP+1 checks and I check behind. I debated making a continuation bet but I thought I would at least get called if not raised.

The turn is the Q /images/graemlins/club.gif. He checks and I bet T230 (about half the pot, my typical bet in a heads up situation regardless of what I have). He calls. The pot is now T675 and he has T1375 left.

The river is the 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif and he checks. I just can't imagine that he's got a hand he likes the way he's played this. I would have expected a raise on the turn or some type of value bet on the river. The question is how to get him off this hand as I'm pretty sure I'm behind and I know I can win the pot. I thought about making a normal bet of around T400 but I thought he'd call this with hands like JJ. So I pushed. He folded. And I was now up to T5040. This was the first hand I started to use my stack to my advantage.

Hand 48
I limp with T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif in MP and fold to action on the flop.

Hand 52
I've got 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif in the SB. 3 callers and myself in the pot. Blinds are still 15/30 making the pot T135.

Flop is 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif giving me bottom set. I checked with the intention of raising. In hindsight, I think it would have been better for me to lead out with a bet and hope that someone had a hand like QJ. But it's folded to the CO who bets T30. I go ahead and raise to T150. Bottom set is nice but vulnerable. It's folded to the CO who raises to T450. Hmmmm. I think he either has AQ, KQ, or 88. He has T1100 left after his re-raise so I'm either going to push now or on the turn. I decide to push now and get called by QQ! Yikes. I thought about 88 but couldn't believe someone would play QQ so passively.

The turn is the 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and the river is the 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Yes, the 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif giving me quads and increasing my stack to T6650.

Hand 60
I've got K /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif in the BB. Blinds are now 25/50. MP+2 calls, SB completes, I check making the pot T150. Flop is 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif. SB checks, I check (expecting the MP+2 to bet), MP+2 checks. Turn is 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif. SB checks, I bet T90 and win the pot.

Hand 66
I've got Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in MP and open for a raise to T150 winning the pot.

Hand 70
I've got T /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in the BB. Three callers and I raise to T300 winning the pot. My first chance to punish the limpers.

Hand 71
I'm now at T6945 and have A /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in the SB. MP+1 opens with a mini-raise to T100. Button calls. I call. Pot is T350.

Flop is 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and it's checked around. The turn is 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and it's checked around. The river is Q /images/graemlins/club.gif and I bet T200 with my Ace high winning the pot.

Hand 74
My stack is up to T7195 and I'm dealt A /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif in MP+2. Blinds still 25/50. I open for T150 and get 2 callers including the BB. Pot is T475.

Flop is 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif. I bet T200 feeling good about my hand and not worried about any draws. Again, people think that anything less than a pot size bet is a sign of weakness. I get called by the BB.

The turn is the 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif pairing the board but I'm not putting him on a 6 so I still think I've get the best hand. The pot is T750 and the villain has T1745. I bet T400 and he calls.

The river is the 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif and he checks again. He could have a set of 9s or 5s, something like A9, or an overpair KK-TT. I still think my hand is good and bet T400 into the T1550 pot. It's a pure value bet and he calls showing top pair.

Hand 75
My stack is up to T8520 and on the very next hand get dealt Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif in MP+1. UTG mini-raises (he's done this in the past with marginal holdings) and I re-raise to T300. MP+2 pushes for a total of T1480. Folded back to me. I'm getting 1.7 to 1 and call. He has 99 and my hand holds up. I'm now at T10175 (2nd in chips in the tourney and will shortly be at the top).

Hand 90
73o in the BB and fold to action on the flop.

Hand 94
I've got A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif in MP+2 and open for T300 (blinds are 50/100). I get called by the SB. Pot is T700.

The flop is 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif. Villain checks. I bet T400 (my standard ~ 1/2 pot bet) and win the pot.

Hand 95
I've got J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif in MP+2 and open for T300. The SB calls me and the pot is T700.

The flop is T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif. He checks and I push with bottom pair (he only had T1432 behind him). He folds and I'm up to T10575.

Hand 99
I've got 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 :club UTG. I open for T300 (more of a steal than anything else) and get called by the BB.

The flop is 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and the pot is T650. He checks and I bet T400. Villain mini-raises to T800 and has another T2895 behind him. The pot is now T1850 and I raise to T2400. I wanted a call figuring he had an overpair or at least top pair. I don't think he's playing a draw with all of the raising. He calls the additional T1600.

The turn is the 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. He checks and I put him all-in. He calls. The river is the 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. He WAS on a diamond draw with 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I have no clue what he was thinking but I'm now up to T14620 with a huge chip lead.

Hand 100
Folded to me in the BB.

Hand 107
I've got 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif UTG and open to T400 (blinds are 75/150). MP+2 calls and the pot is T1025.

The flop is T /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and it goes check check. The turn is the J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and I lead out for T500 and win the pot.

Hand 111
I've got A /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif in the CO. It's folded to me and I open for T450. It's folded to the BB who re-raises all-in to T2360. I fold.

Hand 114
I've got T14570, still the chip leader in the tourney by far. I'm dealt 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in MP and open for T400 winning the pot.

Hand 115
I've got Q /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif UTG+2. UTG calls and I call. It's almost a family pot with an A on the flop so I check fold.

Hand 121
I've got 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif in the CO and limp with 4 others. The pot is T600.

The flop is 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and it's checked around. The turn is the 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif and UTG bets T350. It's folded around to me and I call. I don't have odds for my gutshot but think I can win the hand with a variety of other cards like diamonds, A, K, T.

The river is the 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and the villain leads for T150. Very weak with a pot of T1300. That's not even a value bet. I can represent either the /images/graemlins/diamond.gif draw or a straight and raise to T800 winning the pot.

Hand 122
One caller from MP and I limp with A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif in MP+2. SB completes and the BB check for a pot of T600. Flop is 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif and I fold to some action on the flop.

Hand 124
I'm at T15370, still a big chip lead. I've got K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in MP and open to T400 (my standard raise at this level). It's folded to button who pushes to T2027. This was a fairly tough decision as I hate calling with K high. But I'm getting 1.6 to 1 and I think there's a good chance I've got overcards. I don't think AA or KK would push there. In addition, I don't want people to think they can re-raise me and I'll fold. So I call and he has A6s. I don't know what he was thinking there. Unfortunately, his hand held up and I was "down" to T13343 and in the top 3 in chips.

Hand 131
Third hour and the blinds are 100/200. I've got K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in the CO and limp with 3 others. I think I should have raised here and have noticed that while I haven't had a lot of chances to steal because of the table action, I should be punishing the limpers more than I have. I fold when the flop misses me and there's action.

Hand 134
This is perhaps the most critical hand of the entire tournament. I have J /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif in MP and open for a raise to T500. It's folded to the SB (who has T9633, another big stack). He raises to T1400. I really wanted to fold here but I'm getting over 2 to 1 so I call.

The flop is T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif giving me top pair. The pot is T3000 and he bets T1500. I think I could have safely folded this hand putting him on an overpair. But he could have two overs so instead, I raised to T4000. He called making the pot T11000. This was an important hand to win.

The turn was the 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. He checked and I checked. And here's my leak. I DIDN'T THINK. It's so easy to get into a rhythm playing online that clicking a button is almost an instinct. Playing live, I find that I really take the time to think through decisions but not as much when I'm playing online. There are 2 flush draws out there. If he really liked his hand would he have checked the turn? Well, maybe, thinking that I'll bet and he can raise.

But then, the river is the 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and he checks again. How much can someone like there hand that they check the turn with two flush draws and then check the river after I check the turn. I had him covered by a bit and should have put him all in. Instead, we both check and he wins the pot with JJ.

This really hurt me. I was down to T7443 which was still well above the average of about T4800 at the time. But mentally it was a huge chink out of the armor and took away my comfort zone and ability to make moves on pots. In reality, it shouldn't have done either but I was on tilt a bit. Not some rampage but subtle enough that my mind was clouded.

Hand 140
The blinds are 100/200. I've got T /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif in the CO. The villain from the last hand mini-raises from UTG+2. It's folded to me and I re-raise to T1000. He had been pretty aggressive the past few hands and I thought he could be on a steal now that he had all "my" chips. He called making the pot T2300.

The flop is 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif. He checks and I bet T1400. He check-raises me all-in.

This hand was so tough for me. I thought for a lot less than I should have and called losing to his JJ. I put him on AK and was willing to take the slight risk to build up my stack again.

I really don't know if I should have folded or not. In hindsight I think I should have. He was the initial raiser pre-flop and could easily have AA or KK the way he played it. AQ was also a possibility. I never would have put him on JJ. But if we say his range of hands was AA-KK, AK-AQ it's an EASY fold. But I was on tilt, had no way of even knowing I was, and my a rash decision because this guy had taken away 2/3 of my stack.

[CardSharpCook]

You should have folded hand 134 on the reraise PF. after that, I don't think he is folding. I hate this hand and this is why it sucks. You hit top pair on the flop but have no idea how to play it. After calling the bet on the flop, I think it is correct to bet the turn, but I don't think he folds.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
You should have folded hand 134 on the reraise PF. after that, I don't think he is folding. I hate this hand and this is why it sucks. You hit top pair on the flop but have no idea how to play it. After calling the bet on the flop, I think it is correct to bet the turn, but I don't think he folds.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't disagree, but it's tough to lay down a hand getting over 2 to 1 odds with position.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should have folded hand 134 on the reraise PF. after that, I don't think he is folding. I hate this hand and this is why it sucks. You hit top pair on the flop but have no idea how to play it. After calling the bet on the flop, I think it is correct to bet the turn, but I don't think he folds.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't disagree, but it's tough to lay down a hand getting over 2 to 1 odds with position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, in theory, you are correct, but if you are an aggressive blind stealer, you know not to get involved when they show resistance. When both players are deep stacked, I like this call a lot more, but this is deep in the tourney think I let it go. However, it is an interesting enough hand that I might call just as you did.

CSC

[Lloyd]

And another rule I violated - you don't want to play a big pot with a small hand against another big stack.

[gumpzilla]

The 2:1 odds aren't looking so great if what you're looking for is the chance that you hit the flop hard enough to continue against the range that you anticipate your opponent is holding. If your intuition was that you should fold here, then I think you're playing against a tight enough player that folding is worth considering. At the very least top pair hands that you're going to make against this guy can't be taken very seriously with JTs; if you flop a great draw, then I think it would be worth continuing, but a pair of T's with a J kicker against the strength your opponent has been showing seems a little mediocre.

[Lloyd]

Yes, I understand all of that. I think I should have folded pre-flop but then pushed on the river once I did call. The bigger issue I'm facing is how to ensure that the best possible decision is made during an online tournament. I find that I frequently act too quickly because I'm caught up in the action, or playing 2 SNGs at the same time, or distracted by something else.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I understand all of that. I think I should have folded pre-flop but then pushed on the river once I did call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you're moving him off of JJ the way that played out with the river push. I think he's just going to check-call you here. Also, why are you pushing the river as opposed to the turn? It's not like the river is particularly scary, and it looks more like a move on your part than if you fire out on the turn again.

[Punker]

The JT hand, I think you played ok. Its very unlikely you are getting him to fold JJ by moving in on the river in my experience. The last hand, you just have to fold when he checkraises you all in. Given the way the hand played, its pretty unlikely he's going to show you AK.

I think you may suffer a bit from misevaluating your opponent's hands. Several places you seem to think you bluffed your opponents out (after they play a hand super passively), when most likely you simply held the best hand or that both you and your opponent had essentially nothing. Then you make two pretty strange reads at the end, where players give large action, and you put them on nothing instead.

[CardSharpCook]

Hand 13: AJo UTG+1. why no PFR?
Hand 17: one limper and you call with 43s. Why?
Hand 35: I like your reasoning and actions. Very creative.
Hand 45: Very strange hand. I CB this every time, of course. Because you didn't you have no idea if he has anything when he calls the turn. You could be ahead/tied, or behind. I am ok with the river push, as you are correct - he isn't thrilled with his hand. However, the massive overbet is generally a bluff, and he may call with his PP.
Hand 48: T7s MP is a little too loose for me.
Hand 52: I agree with your hindsight thinking of leading on this board. Boards like these have a way of generating action much greater than the hands involved should allow.
Hand 70: I like this play a lot.
Hand 74: No reason to fear monsters under your bed, good VB.
Hand 95: WTF are you doing? Giddy with your big stack? Absolute foolishness, and you know it. This could have easily been the hand to cause the meltdown.... Or maybe it is the first sign of the meltdown
Hand 99: Meltdown continues. Cards save you. Fold PF.
Hand 107: Dude.... 66 UTG? Fold PF. Well, I like this occasionally, but in context it seems like a continuation of your meltdown.
Hand 121: limp with 23s??? Interesting flop play... and I use that word loosely.
Hand 122: Limp with A9s and one caller???
Hand 124: I like this call.
Hand 131: K8s?
Hand 134: well, this has been discussed.
Hand 140: I'm very surprised he is turning over JJ here, but I'm not at all surprised that he has a hand that beats yours. A very good play by your opponent chk/rzing on this flop - he is either way ahead or way behind and he understands this, so plays accordingly.

I think your meltdown starts on hand 95. You start by claiming that you play solid poker with a few moves. I really like some of your moves, but you are not playing solid poker with your big stack. I think this lack of solid play leads right into the two bustout hands.

With respect,
CSC

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

Hand 140: I'm very surprised he is turning over JJ here, but I'm not at all surprised that he has a hand that beats yours. A very good play by your opponent chk/rzing on this flop - he is either way ahead or way behind and he understands this, so plays accordingly.

[/ QUOTE ]

If his opponent thought it was a way ahead/way behind situation, a c/r all-in is just about the worst move he could pick, because it can only lose him money. I don't think that's what is going on here at all.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Hand 140: I'm very surprised he is turning over JJ here, but I'm not at all surprised that he has a hand that beats yours. A very good play by your opponent chk/rzing on this flop - he is either way ahead or way behind and he understands this, so plays accordingly.

[/ QUOTE ]

If his opponent thought it was a way ahead/way behind situation, a c/r all-in is just about the worst move he could pick, because it can only lose him money. I don't think that's what is going on here at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, no. He is way ahead or way behind so he wants to get as much money in the pot as possible without letting our man see two free cards. He can count on a continuation bet 85% of the time (and the other 15% are usually hands that beat JJ here). However, if he just calls here, hero will likely check down, gaining two free cards to draw to unknown outs. So Villian accepts that with these stacks it is very difficult to determine if JJ is good, but he should like this flop. Additionally, he has some (very little) FE against KQ/AQ/AA/KK - hands that beat him - with this move. Excellent play.

If you see it differently, please explain.

CSC

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

Um, no. He is way ahead or way behind so he wants to get as much money in the pot as possible without letting our man see two free cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

But the whole point of way ahead/way behind is that it is a situation where free cards are basically irrelevant because whoever is drawing to catch up is drawing so slim that it becomes much more important to try and extract the maximum or lose the minimum. Both of these are generally going to be accomplished, to my understanding, by letting the other guy take the lead.

Look at it this way - as a rule, what hands that are drawing to two outs against JJ are going to call this? TT is really just about the only one that I think is realistic at a full table from a player who has shown a reasonably tight, competent game, and a lot of the time TT is going to fold to a c/r here. Now, what hands that have JJ drawing to two outs that Hero could have are going to fold here? Maybe, MAYBE KQ. I think that's it. This side of the equation is a little less clear, but the basic point is that the c/r by villain is the kind of bet that he has to think will generally only be called by hands he is losing to and will fold hands he beats IF he's viewing it from the way ahead/way behind perspective.

This isn't necessarily a way ahead way behind board. JT and AK are examples of hands that have a reasonable number of outs against a Q or JJ, for example. My guess is that villain made the c/r because he wasn't interested in figuring out what to do if an 8, K or A came next and was happy to take down the pot right there.

[CardSharpCook]

that is a damn good reply and adds to my understanding of this game.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 134
This is perhaps the most critical hand of the entire tournament.... But mentally it was a huge chink out of the armor and took away my comfort zone and ability to make moves on pots. In reality, it shouldn't have done either but I was on tilt a bit. Not some rampage but subtle enough that my mind was clouded.

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I don't understand why this put you on tilt, Lloyd. I really like the way you played the hand:

-Preflop call is fine.

-Flop raise should win the pot enough to be +EV on a standalone basis.

-After he calls the flop, he is beating you or drawing to diamonds. When the diamonds don't come in, you need to take the free showdown since a push only wins you pots you would have won by showdown anyway.

You say that "this was an important hand to win" because the pot was T11,000, but you had no opportunity to win the hand so its "importance" is irrelevant. You had the weaker hand and no oppurtunity to successfully bluff so you are going to lose the hand. At least you didn't needlessly burn any chips on the turn or river.

This is only the most critical hand of the tourney because you let the size of the pot skew your thinking about the hand. There was nothing you could do to win this hand. Don't worry about things you cannot control. If you can just learn that*, you will win far more prize money in the long run than you would have if you had won this tourney but not learned the lesson.

*I mean learn it in the sense that you live it all the time (or at least when you're playing poker /images/graemlins/wink.gif), not just that you intellectually understand the concept.

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 140
I put him on AK and was willing to take the slight risk to build up my stack again.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the others that this is a misread. More specifically, while I agree that AK is the most likely *single* hand for the opponent, virtually all of the other hands in the opponent's range have you drawing to 2 outs. Thus, you're a 3:1 favorite against the most likely hand (but a minority of the range) while you're an ~11:1 dog against the remaining hands (the majority of the range, collectively).

I do this sometimes as well, meaning I call because I'm beating the most likely hand for the opponent even though I'm not getting proper odds against his entire range.

However, I think you could have easily seen that if not on tilt because of the earlier hand. So, hand 134 is indeed the key hand.

Hope this helps,
Che

[Scooterdoo]

I agree with you. The villian was counting on the hero not having a 9 or Q and if the hero did have a Q there was some chance that he would fold it. He also was concerned about a K or A coming on the board and having to face a tough decision. He probably didn't think he would possibly get called by a worse hand and was extremely surprised, and elated, that the hero called with TT. Tilt is the only explanation for the call since it seemed very, very likely that the villian had a hand like AQ or KQ.