High Hand Jackpot at party

[locoloco]

What are the odds for a player getting a royal flush with 2 hole cards? Or what are the odds that anyone out of 100 playing players getting a royal flush?

What is the amount of the jackpot you would sit down at one of these tables?

[mannika]

[ QUOTE ]
What is the amount of the jackpot you would sit down at one of these tables?

[/ QUOTE ]

I did the calculation a few weeks ago, search the probability forum under my username.

[z80x86]

These numbers are only considering the actual jackpot contributions, not the self-weighting strategies taken on by most of the players in these games.

www.bonuswhores.com (http://www.bonuswhores.com)

HHJ level required for +EV:

Level HHJ Level
$2-$4 $63,757.82
$3-$6 $73,310.05
$5-$10 $81,717.60
$10-$20 $91,030.15
$15-$30 $86,548.34

[mannika]

[ QUOTE ]
These numbers are only considering the actual jackpot contributions, not the self-weighting strategies taken on by most of the players in these games.

www.bonuswhores.com (http://www.bonuswhores.com)

HHJ level required for +EV:

Level HHJ Level
$2-$4 $63,757.82
$3-$6 $73,310.05
$5-$10 $81,717.60
$10-$20 $91,030.15
$15-$30 $86,548.34

[/ QUOTE ]


Those numbers are way too high, I was getting numbers of a factor about 10x lower than that.

As a thought experiment, the +EV high hand jackpot should be a bit above the average jackpot size when it is hit. From what I remember the high hand jackpot is usually hit in the mid 4-digit range or sometimes the low 5-digit range. Also, consider the BBJ which is generally +EV to play at 250k or so. Does it really seem reasonable that the high hand jackpot occurs only 4 times more frequently than this? High hand jackpot only needs one player to hit a royal flush, Bad beat requires multiple players both having great hands, and has a much lower probability figure than the HHJ.

Anyways, I ended up coming up with a figure of about $4200 when I did the original calculations. Here are my numbers:

Link to original calculations (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=probability&Number=2185669 &Forum=f11&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=21795 32&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=13761&daterange= 1&newerval=5&newertype=w&olderval=&oldertype=&body prev=#Post2185669)

[ahnuld]

I dont know the odds, but yesterday I was playing low stakes nl holdem on party. Flop came KJ hearts and I had the AT hearts. Turn was a queen. Too bad i wasnt playing the jackpot table, but honestly i dont even know the qualifications.