88 vs raise lvl 3

[luckyplayer]

$10+1.
Reads: Villain is solid. Has shown no hands up to this point.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t3215)
UTG (t700)
MP1 (t1005)
MP2 (t603)
CO (t938)
Button (t984)
Hero (t555)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t50, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t200</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero?

[jgunnip]

Did the blinds just go up or are they going up next hand? Either way this is a push/fold situation and I would lean towards pushing.

[Karak567]

Push it and expect to see a coinflip 80 % of the time here.

[citanul]

i'm a little interested on how hero knows villain to be solid having not shown down any hands so far, but whatever.

i agree that the little thought about part of this hand that the blinds could either be about to go up or have already just gone up is very important. if the blinds are about to go up i'd push i'm pretty sure, if they have just gone up or are not going up for a few more hands, i'd fold.

or at least that's my first line of thinkign.

citanul

[liucipher]

I was leaning towards folding since I don't like risking my stack for coinflips when Hero still has 10xBB and is about to be the Button. Plus, while he's short, he's literally one double-up away from being in 2nd.

My first attempt at ICM:

If he folds: 505/8000 = 6% equity
If he doubles up and wins (I'm assuming a call): 1160/8000 = 14.5% equity

% of times Hero has to win in order for it to be neutral:
43.5%.

Hero vs. Villain's range (77+, AT+, A9s+) = 44.4%

So I think it's pretty close, though I assumed no FE. There is a possibility Villain is (1) looser (2) folds to 355 into a t450 pot so then it becomes a clearer push.

Am I doing this wrong?

[luckyplayer]

I probably should have just said no read. There was one more hand before blinds increased. I ended up folding. I said he was solid because he only showed down 3 hands all while I was in (finished 3rd), and they were AJo, ATo, and KJo. He may have played other things, but if he did they were never revealed. He also wasn't raising often.