I goofed AA vs a LAG... or did I? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

View Full Version : I goofed AA vs a LAG... or did I?

MisterKing

05-22-2005, 10:28 AM

Opponent is 36/8/1.8 over a small sample... A friend of mine later tells me he's got him at 50/11/2 on a larger sample. I tried to define the hand early, figuring that a flop raise would be a much cheaper way of finding out if he had a king or boat than playing to a showdown. Does this qualify as a WA/WB situation, or is it different since I may have only one out (if he has AK)? More generally, is there a way to play this hand intelligently without becoming a calling station?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
3 folds, MP1 raises, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP1 caps, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
MP1 bets, CO folds, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

Worrots

05-22-2005, 11:13 AM

What's your actual read on him? Not just the stats, but is he the kind of LAG who (1) waits till he has actually has a hand to pound you on the flop or (2) will bluff once the flop comes till he's frothing at the mouth especially heads up?

I like the flop raise, see if he's really interested in the hand or not. Note that the turn then actually gives you only more ways to lose.

By the turn, you're risking another 2 BB for a 13.75 BB pot to see it through. Not great odds without a good read that he's bluffing, I'm fine crediting him for a K and waiting for a better spot to go up against him. Lots of ways a guy with those stats can back into a Kx hand.

JaysonWeberFCP

05-22-2005, 01:57 PM

That looks like a good fold... It really does suck... but I think that's a good fold in the long haul...

daveymck

05-22-2005, 02:47 PM

I think the preflop cap form him narrows his hand down a loose raiser is one thing capping is another. Once the spade came on the turn the only hands we can put him ahead of even with loose capping standards is AQ,QQ and 10,10 with the flop action even if he was drawing to the flush that is now there. I dont think with the action so far and the texture of the board that we want to goto war on the turn so for me its call down of fold, I am bad at folding and as its a bit pot personally I call down here, I suspect though folding is the better play.

tytygoodnuts

05-22-2005, 03:12 PM

You are getting 6:1 effective odds to call him on the turn. There is no way I am folding.

MisterKing

05-22-2005, 06:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the preflop cap form him narrows his hand down a loose raiser is one thing capping is another. Once the spade came on the turn the only hands we can put him ahead of even with loose capping standards is AQ,QQ and 10,10 with the flop action even if he was drawing to the flush that is now there. I dont think with the action so far and the texture of the board that we want to goto war on the turn so for me its call down of fold, I am bad at folding and as its a bit pot personally I call down here, I suspect though folding is the better play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the input so far folks. On further reflection, I think his range of hands is wider than we're giving credit for. Did I mention he is known to play 50% of his hands up front? Yes, the KKx flop and the raising on that street substantially narrows things, but to say he can only have Kx, is too narrow. He could also have a few other hands, such as AA, QQ, a four frush, and 44 for the small boat.

Taking into account the pot size, and the fact that my ace outs are 100% clean as long as he doesn't have KK (which is mathematically MUCH less likely than any other holding), and there MIGHT be two kings, perhaps one in the deck that could improve me to a winner as well if I am behind to 44.

The pot is gigantic on the flop and its one bet to me... if I flat call here and on every other street, instead of raising and potentially facing a re-raise, I can see a showdown vs the LAG for 2.5 big bets, assuming he bets every future street. That's an effective odds of 9:2.5, or just shy of 4 to one. So really this is a pure math question -- is my hand good 23% of the time? Assuming I will NEVER get a better hand to fold (and I think this is true) by raising, I think this might be a decent price on a play I don't ordinarily make: going into calling station mode. As an added bonus, if he is behind or tied he might check the river after I call/call making my price even better.

I'm going to try a little later on to look into how many ways there are to make each of the hands I'm in trouble against and compare my equity against that range to the effective odds.

tytygoodnuts

05-22-2005, 06:55 PM

Calling down the turn and river really isn't a monumental play against a LAG.

Bill C

05-22-2005, 07:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Opponent is 36/8/1.8 over a small sample... A friend of mine later tells me he's got him at 50/11/2 on a larger sample.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
3 folds, MP1 raises, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP1 caps, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
MP1 bets, CO folds, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'd raise the turn and fold to a reraise. You can represent a lot of different things here yourself, including a made flush.

This guy is pretty loose and a little aggressive, and those guys often have lesser hands than you might think they do, based on their betting.

bill

MisterKing

05-23-2005, 10:57 AM

Well said. I've run the numbers, with a few squishy assumptions, and here they are for the call-call-call scenario:

First % is on the frop, second is once the Js turns

AA – one way, 47.7%, 39.8%
KK – one way, 0.1%, 0%
AK – four ways, 4.3%, 2.3%
Kx – 86 total ways, 8.6%, 4.5%
QQ – 6 ways, 91%, 86%

KQ 8, KJ 8, KT 8, K9s 2 = 26 "reasonable" ways

[(+3.125BB * .955)+(-2.5BB * .0455)* 1] – AA = +2.87BB = same weighted
[(+9BB * .001)+(-2.5BB * .999) *1] – KK = -2.49BB = same weighted
[(+9BB * .043)+(-2.5BB * .957) *4] – AK = -1.955BB = -7.82BB weighted
[(+9BB * .086)+(-2.5BB * .914) *26] – KT+, K9s = -1.51BB = -39.26BB weighted
[(+9BB * .910)+(-2.5BB * .090) *6] – QQ = +7.965 = +47.79BB weighted

+1.09BB overall, starting from the flop.

I assume that he will bet every street, and that I will call every street, and that the extra amount I win when I make aces full and he does not improve will be offset by the extra amount I lose when I make that hand and he makes quad kings, since in each case there is only one ace and one king still in the deck, these situations are equally likely and cancel each other out.

Things change if I throw a flop raise in, and they change still more if I consider the turn card. Since I think a decision has to be made on the frop, I threw the turn card out and just went from the flop. Also, the call-call-call line would be MORE profitable if I give him credit for fewer Kx hands, but I think in this case it might be fair considering his stats to have KT+ (suited and not), and perhaps K9s.

krishanleong

05-23-2005, 10:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 6:1 effective odds to call him on the turn. There is no way I am folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bad, if you love to fold, cap the flop. Fold to further agression. (this is bad too though)

Krishan

krishanleong

05-23-2005, 10:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 6:1 effective odds to call him on the turn. There is no way I am folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good advice.

Krishan