MLB Runline Records

[Rick305]

Hi,

Does anyone here know where you can find out the records of teams on the runline(-1.5,+1.5)

Also any websites with good statistical info for sports betting would be greatly apprceiated.

Thank You

[mrbaseball]

What I typically do is just look at the expanded standings which shows thw one run game records. Then I add and subtract as neccessary to see how often teams actually beat the runline.

If you actually want dogs/favs records when they get or give the runs you actually have to look it up game by game which isn't really that hard to do but I don't find it neccessary. Just adjusting the records is good enough for me.

[DougOzzzz]

My personal opinion is that the "run-line" records are virtually meaningless. I don't believe that any team performs significantly better in 1 run games than their performance indicates - any discrepancies are generally the result of random variation.

It IS true however, that teams with strong bullpens tend to do better in close games than teams of similar quality but weaker bullpens. The difference is not great, though, and may cause a swing of 3-4 wins/year.

The run lines will generally be slightly worse than the money lines. At pinnacle, you can get 8 cent money lines and 10 cent run lines - it's not a big difference, so if you think the heavy favorite is a good bet, from a risk/reward perspective the run line might be a better bet for you. Of course there will be some times when the run line is a "better bet" than the money line. These are probably hard to spot though, and I reiterate that I don't believe that a team's past record in 1-run games is a good predictor of future success. Home teams do win 1-run games a substantial amount more than visiting teams - though the lines should reflect that.

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
I reiterate that I don't believe that a team's past record in 1-run games is a good predictor of future success

[/ QUOTE ]

I sort of agree yet sort of disagree. All the record tells me is how often it happens. Most bettors underestimate and don't understand just how often one run games happen and this is reflected in the lines. It is why taking the runs is typically a a bargain.

If something has happened X% of the time in the past, all else being equal counting on it happening X% of the time in the future is reasonable to me. It doesn't actually predict "success" as you call it in one run games but it does tell you what that price should be. Does the price of the line reflect reasonably how often it happens? If the price is off significantly enough, you have a wager.

[TheGame1020]

This site should have records.

Wagerline (http://www.wagerline.com)