$200K Party AK Hand

[marrek]

Hi All

This hand happened 1/2 way through the Party Poker $200K tourny tonight.

It started off with approx 1200 players, and at the point where this hand came up, there was still about 500+ players.

I'm starting to get short stacked with T2,000 with the blinds at 75-150. I pick up A /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif in the SB. UTG open raises for T400 (T3,300 to start the hand). Everyone folds to me, what do i do?

My initial thoughts were that UTG was tight and solid, and his rangge of possible hands includes AA, KK, QQ, JJ - maybe, AK, AQ, AJs maybe. I have no idea what he'd do with TT, 99, 88, or 77. I don't think he's bluffing or raising light from UTG.

If i reraise all in, i think he'd fold any pair below QQ, and probably AJ, AQ.

His raise of T400 troubles me becaue the avg table raise would be T450 to 525, so his 400 screams of wanting action, which also makes me thing that the lower hands are less likely.

I tried to think of what would happen if I flat called his raise.
1. If the flop hits me I am willing to go all in - actually perfering a flush draw to top pair.
2. if the flop doesn't hit me, i will have to take a stab at the pot and give it up if played withh, but that only leaves me with T1,000
3. if i check any flop, i think he'll bet at it, leaving me with T1,500

I'm running out of time. My gut screams fold. He's got a big pair he's not laying down and i'm too short to play around. But my short chip stack doesn't want to give up a potentially good situation. This is thhe best hand i've seen for 1 hour and have been blinded down/haven't won a pot for a long time.

What do i do?

Marrek

[Superfluous Man]

I don't know what you do. But I push here with 13x BB and a bunch of dead money in the pot. Also, since this is party (even in the 200k), you may get a call from the likes of AQ or even AJ.

Sorry you lost the coinflip.

Edit: I just don't see how raising to 400 screams action. Generally, a raise to 450 would be normal, and 50 chips isn't an astounding enough deviation to make me fold here.

[marrek]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know what you do. But I push here with 13x BB and a bunch of dead money in the pot. Also, since this is party (even in the 200k), you may get a call from the likes of AQ or even AJ.

Sorry you lost the coinflip.

Edit: I just don't see how raising to 400 screams action. Generally, a raise to 450 would be normal, and 50 chips isn't an astounding enough deviation to make me fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see where all the "dead money" is. I'm in the SB, so the BB is dead if he doesn't wake up with aces or kings.

Like i said in my original post, the villian is better than calling with AJ or AQ. His raise is a little smaller than his normal raises, and while it's not a big difference I do think it may be significant.

And I definately didn't lose a coin-flip

Marrek

[jrforman]

I think you have to either push or fold here...With your willingness to push on a draw or bet/fold on a missed flop, I think this a fine spot to push all-in with...If he has a big pair well good luck and if you take it down right there, you increase your stack by 25%...

[bruce]

Maybe I'm missing something, but you are shortstacked and there are 500 players left. UTG bets T50 less than "normal" which probably means very little. I move all in without hesitation.

Bruce

[marrek]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I'm missing something, but you are shortstacked and there are 500 players left. UTG bets T50 less than "normal" which probably means very little. I move all in without hesitation.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]

My problem is the range of hands i can put this solid villian on. There are 3xAA, 3xKK, 6xQQ, 6xJJ ( a maybe), 9xAK, and 12xAQ. I don't tink he'd call with AQ, which is the only and i dominate. I think its unlikely he'd have TT,99 or less, and if he does have those hands i don't think he'd call them.


So my dilema is if i push i only get called by a better hand, either dominating or a 55% favorite ( most of the time). If I'm ahead in the hand, i'm not getting called (most of the time). Of his most likely hands, there are 6 hands that dominate me (aa,kk), 12 hands that make me a dog(QQ, JJ), 9 hands that tie me (AK) and 12 hands i dominate (AQ) - but i don't think he'd call me with Aq.
So i can't feel comfortable about gettin all in, would you? I'm too short to flat call, but i'm gettin short adn can't wait around all day for a perfect situation.

marrek

[Bigdaddydvo]

Read the TPFAP section on AK...good push.