A puzzling AKo situation

[no1super2001]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

Fairly passive table, I have about 20 hands at this point. Table average VPIP ~30% with unremarkable preflop aggression.

Flop: (11.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.

First question is here... I am getting proper odds to call only. Given the cold call preflop from the button, I am not sure the raise will isolate MP1. But, would the raise be +EV?
Other than Pokerstove are there good resources to learn specifics of EV and equity in various situations?

I would probably fold if I call and it is 2 bets back to me. I think this unlikely absent aggression by the button preflop.


Turn: (7.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

This is a head scratcher. MP1 has been the aggressor and has stopped. No longer having the backdoor straight possibility, I checked.

River: (7.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Button wakes up. I risk the overcall, following the line of thinking that button was betting position.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

I would appreciate some critique of my play. In most cases, when a hand is over, I can look back and know whether my actions were correct. Not in this case.

Thank you.

[macdaddy991]

I really don't like the river call here especially after MP1 already called. The check on the turn may have shown that people feared a flush, or that MP1 wanted to c/r the flush. I don't like the river overcall because you need a stronger hand to call the bettor, and an even stronger hand then that to overcall the caller. I don't think you are good here.

[Kumubou]

What would you gain byprotecting your hand from the button? If he has a weaker A or K you want him to stick around, and if he has (or will get) some random pair it really is irreveleant. However, raising will open you up to a 3-bet from MP, which would be bad.

MP1 was either scurred of the three-flush that hit, or got the flush and tried to checkraise like a donk. The check is correct here.

This river call is ooogly. WTF do you think you are beating with ace high? While the button may be bluffing, MP1 almost certainly has something. People rarely bluff-call, even at these low limits.

-K

[lionhorse]

Why not bet the turn? You have a flush draw and 2 overs. Otherwise I don't see a problem.

[no1super2001]

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What would you gain byprotecting your hand from the button?

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree that I would want a weaker A or K to stick around on the flop. My question was actually centered around the comparative EV of the two choices.

[ QUOTE ]
This river call is ooogly. WTF do you think you are beating with ace high? While the button may be bluffing, MP1 almost certainly has something. People rarely bluff-call, even at these low limits.

-K

[/ QUOTE ]

Although I considered the c/r possibility, I really called because the flop bettor stopped after the flop and the bet by the button appeared to be a position bet.

I agree that I would want a weaker A or K to stick around on the flop. My question was actually centered around the comparative EV of the two choices.

[macdaddy991]

i think the folding EV was very high here

donate to charity not to this pot

[no1super2001]

[ QUOTE ]
i think the folding EV was very high here

donate to charity not to this pot

[/ QUOTE ]

You are referring to the river? My EV question was in reference to a flop raise.

Thank you.

[macdaddy991]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think the folding EV was very high here

donate to charity not to this pot

[/ QUOTE ]

You are referring to the river? My EV question was in reference to a flop raise.

Thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]

my mistake, your wording seemed unclear

[no1super2001]

Thanks for the discussion. Part of the reason that I am unclear about the correct pre-river play is that I did win the pot. I usually see the river as an easy fold.

[Wetdog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think the folding EV was very high here

donate to charity not to this pot

[/ QUOTE ]

You are referring to the river? My EV question was in reference to a flop raise.

Thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also considered the flop raise. I don't think it works here though. Usually I'd do it with a pair AND a straight/flush draw.

[Duerig]

It's possible the button is bluffing when the T fell, or just ''betting position?'', but once MP1 calls, I can't imagine that you are good here. I would fold this river right quick and never regret it. Cause that's how I roll.

[Duerig]

Oh I don't like a flop raise. What could MP1 raise pf with, call a 3 bet with, and be behind you on this flop? Damn near nothing. I would put MP1 on JJ or ATs. You do not want to isolate against hands that are ahead of you. I like calling the flop.

[UncleSalty]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think the folding EV was very high here

donate to charity not to this pot

[/ QUOTE ]

You are referring to the river? My EV question was in reference to a flop raise.

Thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clarify why you think a flop raise would be correct here.

In my mind, you would need specific reads that MP1 is betting without any piece of the board AND that button will fold to your raise, to even BEGIN to think that a raise is a good option here.

Basically, you have two overcards and a backdoor flush draw to the second nuts here. If you assume that MP1 has a pair and does not hold an A or K, you have 6 outs for a higher pair and approx. 1.5 outs for the BDFD. (This is a BEST case scenario, unless you think MP1 will bet a diamond flush draw with no pair.)

Generously counting 7.5 outs for yourself here, you have roughly 30% pot equity. Your fair share against 2 opponents is 33.3%. There is no pot equity edge for you to exploit here, so calling is the only option in my mind. (And calling the flop is fine, because you're getting 12.5:1 pot odds.)

Checking the turn is good. You have picked up a strong flush draw, but will only hit it about 20% of the time. Your villain bet the flop, so you are behind a good portion of the time and need to improve to win. With 20% pot equity and a total of 3 players, the check is the correct move.

River: Meh. I think you are beat a lot of the time, and the pot is small. With the preflop action and MP1's bet on the flop, I think you need a pair to call this bet. I would fold.

[no1super2001]

Thank you for the analysis of the flop and turn. That was what I was looking for when I posted this hand.

My post did not imply that I was considering a flop raise. One of my primary questions was to affirm that I took the correct action on the flop.

I realized immediately that my overcall on the river was the wrong thing to do, unfortunately it paid off. My stats indicate that this is the weakest area of my game. That should surprize no one with a donk play like this.