I'm going crazy

[Roland]

7 Card Stud High ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (hand converter (http://www.geocities.com/greenage22/7StudConverter.hta.txt))

3rd Street

Seat 2: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds
Hero: 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif___brings-in
Seat 4: xx xx 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif___calls
Seat 5: xx xx T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Seat 7: xx xx K/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds

4th Street

Hero: 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif___checks
Seat 4: xx xx 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif___checks

5th Street

Hero: 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif___checks
Seat 4: xx xx 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif___checks

6th Street

Hero: 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif___bets
Seat 4: xx xx 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls

River

Hero: 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif___checks___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif xx___bets

Results:

Hero: balance $333, lost $44 [ 9d Js 3s 8c 3h 8s 6s ] [ two pairs, eights and
Seat 4: balance $507, bet $44, collected $90, net +$46 [ 6c 5h 5s 3c Ac 9h 5d ] [

[TheShootah]

Wow, that is a rough one man. I feel your sorrow... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[beta1607]

I hope you buddylisted that guy.

[TheShootah]

It's ok: My aces full of 10's just lost to Quad 6's, when he called down my obvious trips with trip 6's, and caught the case 6 on 7th. It was delightful.

[Bartholow]

Is it possible he was (over)slowplaying rolled fives?

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it possible he was (over)slowplaying rolled fives?

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess it’s possible. But that’s almost as bad as calling with just the 5s on 6th /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[RandomUser]

I'm sure he only had the 5s, but he was enthralled with his gutshot as well. Since he probably would have called an earlier bet with his gutshot, he was probably happy he got all those free cards and was willing to gamble for one bet.

He's drawing to 11 cards to beat you. Any A,9,5,4 (one 4 is dead). His call isn't as bad as might first appear. Someone check my math to see if my calculations are right.

He's investing $20 for a chance to win $53 ($13 in pot plus 2 big bets from you if he hits).

If he misses the river, he will fold and be out the $20. That will happen 69% of the time. (Net EV = -$13.80)

If he hits the river, he will win $53. That will happen 31% of the time. (Net EV = $16.43)

So it is actually +EV to call.

I've discounted the case where you fill up, though, so that would reduce the odds, but it still is pretty close.

[Roland]

I dunno… you also discounted the case where I pair a higher card I could possibly have in the hole; the case where I checked with trip threes on 5th (I wouldn’t do that, but he can’t know that); the case where I chose to fold the river when he bets; the case where I fill up and check-raise him on the river (I’d probably do that).
So I still think this is a terrible call. Good that you questioned it though. Heck, I might still be wrong.

[RandomUser]

That's why I wanted someone to check my math.

I agree it was probably a bad call considering the size of the pot, just that seeing one more card and planning on folding if you miss isn't as bad as it seems.

[MRBAA]

If I was your opponent, I probably just let it go on 6th because the pot is so small. But he can be reasonably sure that what he sees is all you've got from the play of the hand. And as the other poster pointed out, it's really close. I actually really hate your river call here. Again it's a small pot and it's very unlikely he's betting when he can't beat your board.