Another AK hand (AK is giving me tons of trouble)

[Karak567]

***** Hand History for Game 2084350175 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:12409288 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Saturday, May 21, 19:03:49 EDT 2005
Table Table 14252 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: ericowin ( $515 )
Seat 2: Hero ( $750 )
Seat 3: Jukin ( $905 )
Seat 4: devilinhose ( $605 )
Seat 5: FreddyJL ( $255 )
Seat 6: BoBdaMasta ( $660 )
Seat 7: DC80564 ( $1515 )
Seat 8: Mad_Maz ( $975 )
Seat 9: Phantom69 ( $1110 )
Seat 10: brandtwolf15 ( $710 )
Trny:12409288 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ad Ks ]
devilinhose folds.
>You have options at Table 13861 Table!.
FreddyJL folds.
BoBdaMasta folds.
DC80564 folds.
Mad_Maz folds.
Phantom69 calls [30].
brandtwolf15 folds.
ericowin folds.
>You have options at Table 13861 Table!.
>You have options at Table 13861 Table!.
Hero raises [105].
>You have options at Table 13861 Table!.
Jukin is all-In [875]
>You have options at Table 13861 Table!.
>You have options at Table 14282 Table!.
>You have options at $1000 Daily Guaranteed(340603) Table #14 Table!.
Phantom69 folds.

[valenzuela]

hero calls.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
***** Hand History for Game 2084350175 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero calls quickly.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
***** Hand History for Game 2084350175 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero calls quickly.

[/ QUOTE ]

hero busts k9 and laughs his ass off

[microbet]

Unless villian has shown some craziness, hero folds.

[microbet]

Call if it's a $215 or a live $2000 buyin MTT.

[valenzuela]

ay caramba..lets suppose hero wins 48% of the time, I suppose we agree that is a fair number. Ure putting 645 chips into a 930 pot. End of discussion

[valenzuela]

bah..I finsihed my posrt before u posted for the second time, dont ever do that again /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[microbet]

Mios Dio!

If you win you have .18 of the equity. If you fold you have .0835.

.0835 = X * .18
X = .46

If you win more than 46% of the time it is +$EV.

If he is tight it is a bad bad call. If he is lose it is a good good call. I think on the whole it is a bad call. That is strictly by $EV, and if it is an $EV neutral decision it is a fold, IMO.

But, like I said before, if he has shown any craziness, it is a call.

[microbet]

I'm not sure what you don't want me to do, but it sounds like you are threatening me, so I'm signing us up to invade Chile next.

[valenzuela]

U already did 30 years ago /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[microbet]

Well, that was before you were born, and it was more like military aid and training leading to the overthrow of the democratically elected Chilean government, but close enough.

I'd say "my bad", but I was only 5, so it wasn't my fault.

[valenzuela]

U should say "my bad" for wanting to fold AK.

[microbet]

When he flips over his cards, you're going to be 43% to win.

[Karak567]

"My bad."

Thanks for slapping some sense into me, gents, heh.

[microbet]

? Who is slapping sense into you? I'm the only one saying fold - assuming you haven't seen anything crazy out of him yet.

What happened, and had you seen anything crazy out of him prior to this?

[Karak567]

Eh, guess I misread some of the posts (4-tabling and watching baseball, haha).

I was 4-tabling and really didn't have a good read on him.

[Scorpion Man]

Microbet, I have a general question for you. I am not a frequent poster but I have seen you using ICM a couple times. In this case, it is a situation where you are saying its 43% to win. That is same as 1.325/1 odds. Pot is laying you 1.37/1.00.

He could easily be pushing AK as well, in which case you are throwing away a lot of equity.

So my question is this...if you are playing a live game (or even an online game depending on how quick you are with ICM)...how do you make these decisions? I would tend to go with pot odds at this point in the tourney...And again you are using a few % point difference on a model that is not precise -- and you are using 4 (!) significant digits...for example if I round your .0835 to ..08 to match the sig digits for your .18 I get 44.4% which is basically a dead heat.

I understand you say if its this close its not worth it and I think that is style dependent and fine. What I dont understand is how you make decisions like this while playing in the real world?

Not trying to flame you, just wondering how to apply this kind of post to the real world. I would argue there is zero chance that someone can make calculations with this precision on the fly, in addition to the aforementioned problem that I think within the error of the model its a wash.

For what its worth I am calling here (particularly in these small tourneys) because I have seen lesser hands than the ones that get you 43% over and over again.

Thanks.

[valenzuela]

Lets suppose ur 43% is right which I think is not, its still a +$EV call...Ok u asked for it math time.
U have 16 bux and 50 cents making ur wussy fold.
Now if u double up you now have 36 bux and 30 cents. So 36.3*0,43= 15,5 before u start jumping up and down I have some news for you.
U fold 7 times: U recovered 116 bux
U call 7 times: U recovered 109 bux
But since u called 7 times...4 of those times u only plyed 10 minutes and the times u won u took 35 minutes to play, the times u folded u took 32 minutes to play( estimated guesses)
So: 35*3 + 10*4= 145
32*7= 224.
U won 79 minutes and lost 7 bux, we just need to have a 13% ROI on the 22s to make the call profitable IF we win 43% of the time. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[microbet]

I never count time. I will add tables long before I let $/hr affect how I play a hand.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
So my question is this...if you are playing a live game (or even an online game depending on how quick you are with ICM)...how do you make these decisions? I would tend to go with pot odds at this point in the tourney...And again you are using a few % point difference on a model that is not precise -- and you are using 4 (!) significant digits...for example if I round your .0835 to ..08 to match the sig digits for your .18 I get 44.4% which is basically a dead heat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't do ICM calcs during a game. I'm not that fast or smart. The only calcs I ever do are pot-odds, like you said. So, I won't necessarily come up with the same answer during a game as I do in the forum. All the ICM calcs and arguments in the forum, I hope, are developing my intuitive sense for what is the right decision during the game. I think I have a pretty decent feel for what ICM will say in a situation, but it could certainly get better.

.0835 is 3 significant digits - and that is probably 1 too many, but not 2. And a dead heat means fold here - unless you are a losing player.

[ QUOTE ]
What I dont understand is how you make decisions like this while playing in the real world?

[/ QUOTE ]

In the real world in this situation, I expect to have enough of a read in this situation to make it a clear call or fold. Even if the guy hasn't shown anything, I would call here if it has been a loose table. People who don't play the $22s (I don't, but have recently) may not realize that sometimes they are tight as hell.

[ QUOTE ]
Not trying to flame you, just wondering how to apply this kind of post to the real world.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be hard for this to be less of a flame.

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error of the model its a wash.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the error in the model makes it more inclined to tell you to call here than you should.

[ QUOTE ]
For what its worth I am calling here (particularly in these small tourneys) because I have seen lesser hands than the ones that get you 43% over and over again.

[/ QUOTE ]

46% is really what you need. I put that in a different post. 43% was just a guess at what you would actually face - not on the range.

I certainly don't mean to be making a "pass up this early +$EV spot argument", it is all on the villian's range of hands.

You may well be right, and if someone who has played a bunch of $22s recently tells me that I'm crazy to put a player who just hasn't yet shown me how crazy he is on 99+, AK, AQs or something like that, then I'll gladly call here everytime.

[Scorpion Man]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


.0835 is 3 significant digits - and that is probably 1 too many, but not 2
[ QUOTE ]
error of the model its a wash.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYI its 4 significant digits. You are using a data set that includes 0.18 specifically and the tenths in general The zero counts here. That is a hell of a lot of digits. I do think its 2 too many for what its worth.

[lastchance]

I think most $22's would have a range that includes AJ+, 88+, which swings this to a clear call.

Even w/o AJ in the mix, this is a call, and I've got to think that a $22er going to push with AQ here.

Hero calls.

[microbet]

I don't know. I only played 253 $22s, but I don't think the average $22er pushes with AQ here.

I suppose it is a bigger error to not call here against a loose player than it is to call a tight player, so if you haven't been paying attention you should call.

[lastchance]

Really? I know people at the $22's like to mix things up for some reason, so they're not pushing AQ 100% of the time, but they'll throw in stuff like K4s because "you might be bluffing dood, back off,"

I think you've got hands dominated here.

[treeofwisdom7]

when you have AK the chance of AA or KK cuts in half right? so if you have AK chance of someone having AA is 1/442?