KK facing huge overbet (Party 11)

[chumdawg]

The opponent has only played one hand so far the entire tourney. Last level, he raised to $150 from middle position with AK-suited, and hit his flush.

The table had been playing pretty tight. I didn't know what to make of the open-push. I'm just getting started playing online SNG's (been playing mostly live cash games).

Am I supposed to call here? I couldn't figure out why he would make this move with anything less than AA, except maybe KK.

***** Hand History for Game 2066823381 *****
50/100 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 12310384) - Wed May 18 02:25:12 EDT 2005
Table Table 11477 (Real Money) -- Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 2: pocket_nug (1715)
Seat 3: CodaKing (485)
Seat 5: Rustera (1485)
Seat 6: JERSEYRU (820)
Seat 7: chumdawg3 (2185)
Seat 8: bgwoodsfull (1310)
chumdawg3 posts small blind (25)
bgwoodsfull posts big blind (50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to chumdawg3 [ Kc, Kd ]
pocket_nug folds.
CodaKing folds.
Rustera raises (1485) to 1485
Rustera is all-In.
JERSEYRU folds.

[shejk]

I'd probably call partly out of curiosity, partly because I'm never that confident someone has aces, especially not on one action. Caro's law of loose wiring is applicable here... /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[J-Lo]

NEVER EVER EVER EVER NEVER EVER NEVER EVER EVER NEVER NEVER fold AA or KK preflop-- (unless situation is extreme.

[Karak567]

[ QUOTE ]
NEVER EVER EVER EVER NEVER EVER NEVER EVER EVER NEVER NEVER fold AA or KK preflop-- (unless situation is extreme.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think there is any situation extreme enough in a Party 10 + 1 to justify folding AA KK OR QQ for that matter PF.

[tomdemaine]

you better hope like hell citanul doesn't read this or you're in a world of hurt. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[valenzuela]

Yes youre supposed to call here.

[chumdawg]

Given the description of the player, and given the stacks and the action, what do you think is his range of hands here? How big a favorite do you believe KK to be?

[Maulik]

call and reboot if need be

[valenzuela]

Tightest player( me for instance) QQ+
Average player: JJ+, AK
Looosest player: I want u to sleep at night, sry.
If I had to make a guess I would say AK is his hand

[TruFloridaGator]

What does it matter how much of a favorite you are. I can't shovel my chips in any faster w/ KK at an $11.

[valenzuela]

Ok I like insulting new ppl too, but I think his question is very valid and Im answering based on my experience and how I used to play, I used to go broke with JJ a lot.

[TruFloridaGator]

JJ isn't KK.

[valenzuela]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif, Im just explainign why KK is a call because many ppl go to far with JJ.

[TruFloridaGator]

You don't fold KK pre-flop at an $11.

[Big Limpin']

[ QUOTE ]
NEVER EVER EVER EVER NEVER EVER NEVER EVER EVER NEVER NEVER fold AA or KK preflop-- (unless situation is extreme.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reminds me of Smokey...NEVER EVER NEVER NEVER EVER COME AROUND HERE.
http://www.tshizzle.com/tshirts/Movies/friday-damn-large.jpg

[chumdawg]

[ QUOTE ]
What does it matter how much of a favorite you are. I can't shovel my chips in any faster w/ KK at an $11.

[/ QUOTE ]I assume by this you mean either A) it doesn't matter whether you make a good play or a bad play, because the stakes are so small that any play you make can neither be very good nor very bad, or B) at these stakes the typical opposition makes very bad plays, so you are probably a big favorite and you should never give up such a large edge.

I find your post to be somewhat contradictory, then, since you say "what does it matter how big a favorite you are?"

I'm playing the 11's because I'm trying to get my feet wet at online one-table tournaments. Though the stakes are far smaller than what I normally play (2/5 live), I still do want to make the correct play.

I'm doing pretty well so far--I won this tournament, and two more the same night--but I recognize that I have a lot to learn about sit-n-go's, and I'm trying to get some help from more experienced players in sorting it all out. I'm trying to think about things like stack sizes and equity and chip modeling and all that.

In this case I thought the chances were far greater than normal that the player had pocket aces, and I was trying to figure out what the best play was, given that I had to give better consideration than normal to aces and given the size of my stack at the time.

[Colombo]

your whole idea of what his bet means is awry. If any sensible player had AA in first position, would he go all in to take down a pot of 75? No.

[Big Limpin']

Not necessarily.

[chumdawg]

Well, that's what I'm getting at. What would his range of hands be? The guy has played one hand in almost 30, and that hand was AK. Whether he is "sensible" or not, you tell me, but he is definitely tighter than tick pussy.

What hand would a tight player risk a decent-sized stack with, to win 75 chips? Is this common with jacks or queens, or worse? (From what I have seen so far, it isn't.)

See, that's the thing. It struck me as such a nonsensical move, from a player that had been playing as tight as you can.

But all that aside...obviously, I knew he could have more than aces. But at the same time, I figured his range to be pretty narrow. Was it worth risking the chip lead I had the time? Were the chips I would win more valuable than the position I would get to be unfavorable (assuming he had aces)?

That's all I'm wondering.

[valenzuela]

I bet t200 with aces, kings and queens on level 1.

[lastchance]

A massive overbet doesn't mean AA. From some people it does, but until you see the guy do this at least once, you have no idea what he's got.

I've seen this bet made with all sorts of crap. It is very likely someone has KQ or KJ here, for example, maybe worse, and for you to be a 9 to 1 favorite or more. It is just as likely that you will AQ as compared to AA here.

People suck at poker. Call, and be stunned by the kinds of crap they make this play with.

If you folded, this is a horrible, horrible, horrible play. Don't do it again.

[liucipher]

[ QUOTE ]
If any sensible player had AA in first position, would he go all in to take down a pot of 75? No.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ditto.

Last round he bet 5xBB w/ AKs. Just because he raised to 30xBB here doesn't mean his hand has gotten 6 times stronger (which I think would have to be like AA and two more hidden in his butthole with a fifth one up the sleeve for good measure).

[ QUOTE ]
I find your post to be somewhat contradictory, then, since you say "what does it matter how big a favorite you are?"

[/ QUOTE ]
What Gator meant was that it's an $11, so not only is the competition soft, but it also means winning play that leads to higher variance will not cause you to have to take out a second mortgage. Maybe 5% of the time Villain has AA and you lose $11. But whatever, it's not the WSOP.

My guess is that Villain has AK (if he's tight), AQ (if he's drinking while playing), QQ, or JJ. It reeks of "I most likely have the best hand but I'm sick of getting sucked out on." It also could be "I'm getting high on a Saturday night with my roommate and I just let him play a hand. Stupid Kumar let's go get some White Castle!"

[valenzuela]

Ok Ill explain to you...
Look you can bet 20x the BB and idiots still call with 99 or AQ. Try it the next time. But like I said the most likely range is JJ+, AK a looser range something like 99+,AQ+, ur range should be IMO QQ+( for huge overbets, I dont like AK however u might overbet AK as well).

[chumdawg]

I apologize. I guess I wasn't making clear the source of my confusion. Yes, I understand that a massive overbet doesn't necessarily mean aces. (In my experience, in some games, and with some players, it's more likely to mean jacks or a lower pocket pair.) And yes, I understand that some people will do this with KQ or KJ.

But this guy had demonstrated to me clearly enough that he wasn't this type of player. Played one hand in three orbits, which was AK-suited, and brought it in for a standard raise. He required a different sort of read...or so I thought.

If it's a cash game, I call him without hesitation. (Then again, people don't raise 20 times the pot in the cash games I play in, so maybe I don't.) But being that this is a tournament, I was thinking along these lines:

How much will I win if I make this call and hold up?
How much will I lose if I make this call and don't?

Is this not the right question to be asking (while at the same time, of course, trying to determine how often you win and how often you lose)?

[runner4life7]

First, please tell me you called, and what did he have? A lot of people push mid pocket pairs because they dont know how to play them i.e. 7s-Js especially 10s and Js. I think the mentality is that they have a good hand and want to win chips and would rather take the small amount and win for sure.

[Scorpion Man]

The guy is tight. That does not mean he's an idiot. While once in a while people use reverse reverse psychology like this, its not worth worrying about. Be happy, click call, and move on. This is a great situation. I would beg for this situation all day. Call it 100 times and you will be right 90 of them. There is no way to know whether this is in the other 10.

To me the fact he is super tight and has raised a lot screams weakness, not stregth (99 TT JJ maybe QQ). Unless the aforementioned White Castle is in play.

[45suited]

I reach so quickly for my mouse to call here that I pull a muscle. Like Harrington said in his book, even the top pros don't ever "know" that their opponent has aces. The vast majority of the time you will have this guy dominated, AND don't forget that of the few times that he has aces, you still might get lucky. IMO folding here is horrible. Don't overthink this... just call and double up.

[Freudian]

Call. At worst you get an $11 note on the guy.