Weak draw and overcards - completly overplayed? [Archive]

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Ivanapolis

05-21-2005, 08:43 AM

Reads: UTG is a maniac who never folded since he was playing on this table. He often calls/raises or reraises with any hand and draw. Since a few games the whole table has gone mad and the guys were raising and 3-betting with almost every hand (as you see: including me).

With this reads:
Lay this down on the flop (or preflop?)?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, MP raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, 1 fold, UTG calls, MP calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, UTG calls, MP calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (16.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, UTG calls, MP calls, Hero calls.

River: (32.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB bets, UTG folds, MP raises, Hero folds, SB 3-bets, MP caps, SB calls.

Final Pot: 40.50 BB

deepsquat

05-21-2005, 09:20 AM

The flop 3 bet is debateable, I want UTG to come along with his dead money. On the turn i dont mind this 3bet, you prob have 13 good outs with one card to come, looks as if UTG will prob come along after calling 3 on the flop but King and Queen outs are certainly no good.

Only because UTG is in the hand i like this turn 3bet. Just under a 3rd of the deck will give you the near nuts and you are putting in 1/4 of the $

Bad river card bro.

Roy6

05-21-2005, 09:27 AM

Flop: Your outs to a K are probably tainted, and so might your Q outs. If you hit, you can still suckout, this hand will go to showdown for sure.

Your very clean outs are gutshot+bdoor flush draw so I'd count with 7 outs.

So calling the flop is not bad at all. Raising makes no sense I think. You were last to act, you cannot drive people out (to 'clean' outs). You won't get a free card either, because MP just raised the preflop capper that suggests he is on a high PP (that makes your hand even worse).

I might also consider folding. It's very likely you'll need to pay 4 SBs to see the turn card with a drawing head.

3-betting the turn with a picked-up draw but without any UI SD-value is -EV for sure.

deepsquat

05-21-2005, 09:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]

3-betting the turn with a picked-up draw but without any UI SD-value is -EV for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, maths aint my strongpoint but doesnt he have 9 flush outs and 4 jack outs? 13 outs and its still -ev with 3 others tagging along?

cheers

Roy6

05-21-2005, 09:42 AM

Sorry, I forgot the gutshot.
He has 12 outs.
But the has position and could use it on the river to gain more bets if he hits.
An argument for 3-betting is that he could safely fold (?) if he hits his K or Q and will still be bet into on the river.

Ivanapolis

05-21-2005, 09:45 AM

<blockquote>In Antwort auf:<hr />
<blockquote>In Antwort auf:<hr />

3-betting the turn with a picked-up draw but without any UI SD-value is -EV for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, maths aint my strongpoint but doesnt he have 9 flush outs and 4 jack outs? 13 outs and its still -ev with 3 others tagging along?

cheers

[/ QUOTE ]

9 flush outs and 3 jack outs (the J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif only counts once) - and maybe some /images/graemlins/diamond.gif-outs are couterfeit. There was an additional other reason I was 3-betting on the turn: If I and the SB only would have called, and the turn-raiser had an very good hand (set or something), he would probably not 3-bet me at the river (if I raise him as on the river comes a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif), if I would have only called the turn bet, course from his position it would be more logical to put me on a made hand (already on the turn), if I would have 3-bet the turn, than calling on the turn an raising on the river.

Isura

05-21-2005, 11:07 AM

I don't like the turn 3-bet. I'd just flat call and evaluate the river. You have a chance then to trap everyone for atleast 2BB on the river when you hit, and you can still reevaulate and just call if there is significant action ahead of you on the river. Plus you put in less money on the turn where your probably don't have your full 12 outs here, so I think your equity is closer to 25% than say 33%. With the ace of diamonds it's quite different IMO.

Ivanapolis

05-21-2005, 11:19 AM

<blockquote>In Antwort auf:<hr />
I don't like the turn 3-bet. I'd just flat call and evaluate the river. You have a chance then to trap everyone for atleast 2BB on the river when you hit, and you can still reevaulate and just call if there is significant action ahead of you on the river. Plus you put in less money on the turn where your probably don't have your full 12 outs here, so I think your equity is closer to 25% than say 33%. With the ace of diamonds it's quite different IMO.

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Thanks for the reply! Wouldn't you have folded it on the flop?

Isura

05-21-2005, 11:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the turn 3-bet. I'd just flat call and evaluate the river. You have a chance then to trap everyone for atleast 2BB on the river when you hit, and you can still reevaulate and just call if there is significant action ahead of you on the river. Plus you put in less money on the turn where your probably don't have your full 12 outs here, so I think your equity is closer to 25% than say 33%. With the ace of diamonds it's quite different IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the reply! Wouldn't you have folded it on the flop?

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You're getting good odds on the flop to call, but 3-betting might be better given your reads.