Fear Quads here?

[mtdoak]

First hand at the table...

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (12 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.

River: (18 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Button folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 28 BB

[KDawgCometh]

in a word, no

[Pokey]

Jason?

[Willluck]

Cap PF, and I dont necessarily fear quads but aces are definitely a possibility. I call after the river 3-bet

[Nick C]

Yes, a hand like AJ is something to consider, especially after the turn checkraise. SB could easily defend against a steal with that, as well as with hands like KJ, QJ and maybe JTs, too. If we just limit it to AJ (and I'm not sure we should), that's 4 combinations. There are three combinations of 88 and three combinations of 44. We need to think about QQ (6 combinations), which you beat, and AA (6 combinations), which you don't, as well. (Edit: I'm not so sure SB would be quick to checkraise the turn with an overpair, after facing such resistance on the flop and after the top card on the board paired on the turn, though.)

Button's along for the ride, and you probably have him beat, unless he has a scared AA. So he's probably padding the pot for you, the times that you're best.

All the same, I'm not going to be surprised at showdown if the pot doesn't come my way.

I might not have put as many bets in on the river as you did. SB obviously loves his hand, and I'm not sure he'd 3-bet preflop with, for instance, 44, and I doubt he'd 3-bet the river with it (or with 88, for that matter), except out of frustration (or stupidity).

In my opinion, quads can be dismissed as too unlikely to be relevant on a board like 4489Q (as only one hand combination makes quads there), but when there are three of the same broadway card on the board (especially if it's an ace), it's something you have to think about, at least a little.

[KDawgCometh]

[ QUOTE ]
Jason?

[/ QUOTE ]

ROTFLMAO. the nittiness of this question is great. Isn't this the second "fear the quads" post tonight. C'mon people, where have your balls gone? I think that STheif needs to get postin in here again and showing what his stats look like as they were very aggro when he made his last stats post

[mtdoak]

??

[Pokey]

Sorry; had you confused with someone else, there.

I'd be more afraid of AA than a J. Still, I think all your bets are for value except possibly the river cap.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be more afraid of AA than a J.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my initial thought too, but I've decided a jack is more likely. It's hard to say, though, since Hero is new to the table and we don't have any reads.

[Willluck]

Aces mathematically, are more likely.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Aces mathematically, are more likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Only if we limit Villain's possible quads hands to AJ. Throw KJ into the mix, and the possibilities are equal. Toss in QJ, and it tilts toward quads.

Also, I think the turn checkraise is a factor.

[Willluck]

good point, I actually thought about that after I posted.