QQ HU vs. Unknown

[BottlesOf]

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP caps</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (12.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.75 BB

[ISF]

Thats a horrible river card, but I think youll see a big ace or smaller pair such as 10s or JJ enough to make this call profitable.

[gaming_mouse]

I think I fold the river.

Calling the turn makes sense because some players will semi-bluff c/r here with AK. But he made that hand on the river, so now you must be hoping that:

1. He has JJ-TT
2. He would semi-bluff raise this hand rather than call you down with it.

AA - 6
KK - 3
AK - 12
QQ - 1
TT-JJ - 12

So the chance of 1) is 12/34 = 35%.

This means that you must believe there is a 20% chance he takes this line with TT-JJ. I guess that's not so bad after all.... reads would help.

gm

[BottlesOf]

Where does the 20% come from?

[joker122]

easy call down vs an unknown, imo. he's not checkraising with a hand like AK so the river doesn't really change anything.

[BottlesOf]

[ QUOTE ]
he's not checkraising with a hand like AK

[/ QUOTE ]


i don't see why not.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Where does the 20% come from?

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, it should be 19%.

P(event1 &amp; event2) = 1/14.75
.35*x = 1/14.75
x~.19

[BottlesOf]

Algebraically I totally get it. Intuitively, it's a little odd, as I don't think I've ever come up with that % figure in that fashion before. I'm going to think about that some more and maybe send you a pm later on.

[Trix]

Not folding this either.

HU and 13:1 with an awesome pair without a read /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Roy6]

The river really sucks, but I think you should call the river just to make sure and hope for TT/JJ/QQ
(Had a similar hand a few days ago.
I had QQ and played the same the same way as MP.
We both had QQ.)

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
Algebraically I totally get it. Intuitively, it's a little odd, as I don't think I've ever come up with that % figure in that fashion before. I'm going to think about that some more and maybe send you a pm later on.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's using the conditional probability.
Prob(event1 given event2) = Prob(event1 and event 2) / Prob(event2)

[BottlesOf]

Villain had AA. When he c/red me on the turn, obviously I was concerned, given the action to that point. When the K showed up on the river and he bet, I thought about making a "good" laydown, but looked at the pot, clicked call, and prayed.

[StellarWind]

I can't imagine folding the river. The pot is big, your hand is nice, and you don't know what he's doing.

It is true that AK just improved. But how likely is he to have that? Consider that if you insist that AK is a likely hand for him then AQ must be a possible hand.

It is also true that half of the possible KK hands just got ruled out. As an example, consider that if your opponent would play this way with AA-JJ only, your chance of winning just increased from 6.5/19 to 6.5/16. The river is not an unmitigated evil.

You'll never convince me you don't have the necessary 13.5-1 against an unknown.