So I folded AK on the bubble

[holeplug]

From a $22
SB had folded his way to 460 chips and the BB was fairly tight as well. UTG was taking advantage of having lots of chips. Big blunder or no?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t460)
BB (t1020)
UTG (t4590)
Hero (t1930)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t2000</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t2450

[curtains]

This is a clear fold, good job.

[chisness]

Good fold. How good of a hand would you have needed to call here? I'd say QQ or better would be worth it since I think he does this with approximately 88-JJ and AK-AJ.

[smcannon]

I'm folding. Let the short stack blind out or bust first. Get yourself in that money!

[curtains]

I believe that QQ may actually be a fold here as well.

[chisness]

curtains,

As I was typing that, I was thinking about QQ. I'd say unless he's been VERY tight, this shouldn't be folded. I guess if you absolutely don't want to risk it, you could fold, but I think you're in great shape way too often to give it up.

[lastchance]

ICM + Eastbay's program = goodness.

BTW, UTG probably pushes with any 2 here, knowing you should laydown AK, or just being a maniac.

[curtains]

I believe if they are pushing any 2 you should call, but if they are pushing only 30-50% its a clear fold. However playing QQ in that spot if it's a mistake is one of those mistakes I don't mind making so much.

[microbet]

QQ is a pretty clear fold.

Big stack will at least want to beat up on a random hand since SB will call with just about anything.

If you put big stack on [22+, A2+, K2+, Q9+], KK is barely a call.

[microbet]

Why is UTG so worried about whether you will call? SB will likely call if you fold and then, with SB calling and obviously desparate, BB won't have a super tight range.

[curtains]

Yeah I fold QQ here too, but posters have to be very careful not to extrapolate these folding QQ situations into those where you shouldn't fold it, as they are extremely rare.

[chisness]

s I think about it, I see that QQ could be trouble, especially if he's not a maniac.

What if SB had 960 and big stack had 4090? What should be our range in that case? Maybe that's where the QQ becomes correct.

[chisness]

Why would UTG push any 2 here? He knows he's almost certain to be playing against the SB for the entire pot.

I think micro's suggestion that he has 22+, A2+, K2+, Q9+ is quite accurate.

[Scorpion Man]

what were the blinds.

[microbet]

This is an interesting hand from UTG's point of view.

Button will obviously be very tight. If button folds, SB will call with pretty much anything. If you put SB on calling with any two there, it doesn't make the tiniest bit of difference what BB does.

For UTG you need a mediocre hand for it to be +$EV, but over a very large range it doesn't make much difference.

Eventhough T9 looks like a good push from UTG, I think they will want a bit better on average.

edit: What do y'all do here from UTG's position? Without either a monster or complete trash I think the $EV difference is so slight that you might go with what is best for your table image.

[Scorpion Man]

OK too much agreement here so I might as well throw in a dissenting view as food for thought. I don't think its a no brainer fold. I am after EV, not minimizing variance. While I agree you fold here if you just want to see the money, I dont agree that its necessarily the biggest positive EV play. If you play and win you are the clear chip leader. This materially increases your chance of first which is (i am not sure on party) something like 2.5x third and 65% better than second. You have &lt;1% chance of being well behind to the raiser (particularly given your description that he is using his chips). I am not sure how big the blinds were but they had to be big enough to give you pot odds to call with AK against any pair. So...you are at worst getting correct odds to become a big leader and at best already well ahead...BB will do this with a whole lotta hands you dominate -- Ax and Kx.

If SB or BB happen to come along and you both bust you still get third. That is not a huge probability but it helps as well.

Not knowing what the blind were makes it tougher to evaluate but I have said my piece.

[lastchance]

Yeah, you're all right. I've seen way too many idiots around. Most SB's call 100% of hands (assuming Hero doesn't pick KK, AA, or something like that). But again, ICM calc would be really nice here.

Damn, I need to get (or make) Eastbay prog.

[HiatusOver]

Is everyone still in agreement that this is a clear fold? Scorpion had some good points

[The Yugoslavian]

The blinds aer 150/300...it's in the OP.

As for whether it's a fold or not....I can't imagine AK being a call no matter what UTG's range is - it's not really very close. As curtains said, being on the bubble with such a short stack forces you to fold almost every hand here. I'd call with AA,KK but I'm not sure about QQ...I'd certainly fold JJ.

Yugoslav

[Scorpion Man]

I don't think its a clear call by any means. But I also think its clearly not an easy fold. I ran some math and you can argue with the specifics, but the general conclusions is that its about a push, so to me that says its not a clear anything.

Assume the following -- 50.30.20 payout.
If you fold this hand your chances of finishing
1=20%
2=40%
3=25%
4=15%

If you call your chances are

1=40%
2=20%
3=5%
4=35%

These were the first numbers I picked out of the air, and as it happens the EV was dead even.

I really disagree with your QQ comment. You are a favorite to 70%+ of his hands in that situation. I think QQ is a clear call.

I am very curious to understand, given the above math, why everyone thinks its so clear to fold? I dont think folding is dumb, I just dont think its a no brainer.

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think its a clear call by any means. But I also think its clearly not an easy fold. I ran some math and you can argue with the specifics, but the general conclusions is that its about a push, so to me that says its not a clear anything.

Assume the following -- 50.30.20 payout.
If you fold this hand your chances of finishing
1=20%
2=40%
3=25%
4=15%

If you call your chances are

1=40%
2=20%
3=5%
4=35%

These were the first numbers I picked out of the air, and as it happens the EV was dead even.

I really disagree with your QQ comment. You are a favorite to 70%+ of his hands in that situation. I think QQ is a clear call.

I am very curious to understand, given the above math, why everyone thinks its so clear to fold? I dont think folding is dumb, I just dont think its a no brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are assuming that having 48% of the chips gives you a 61.5% of first place. What am I missing?

GG

[holdem2000]

For starters I don't think your first set of numbers is that accurate, but I'll assume it is. What do you think your chance of winning the hand is if you call? Maybe 60% vs. his distribution? Then if you call your chances of 1st are under 27%, and your chances of 4th are at least 40%. Even in the best case if you're in this spot:
1 = 27%
2 = 33%
3 = 0%
4 = 40%

You're still taking a hit of over .6 buyins if you call.

[The Yugoslavian]

Sorry, your math is wrong. Also, I'm not sure how you disagree with my QQ comment as I never said I'd fold it...depends on the opponent.

Here is some quick math for you that should explain why it's a clear fold of AK:

Your $EV is 29% of prize pool if you fold...if you call and win it's 39.45% of the prize pool. You need to win 73.5% of the time at showdown to make this break even $EV-wise going by ICM. AK is ~66% favorite vs. any two (which only *some* big stacks will be pushing here).

This is would be an *awful* call...it's not close to close.

So, yes, it's a very, very, very easy fold.

If you can put your opponent on exactly any two I would call with JJ+...I don't think you can do that here so I'd fold JJ....I would most likely be calling with QQ but folding it is not nearly as big of a mistake as calling with AK would be.

Yugoslav

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
These were the first numbers I picked out of the air

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't count as math.

There is at least one model for assigning value to chips in a tournament for which a lot of math has been done. It's called the Independent Chip Model (ICM). There are calculators for ICM as well has calculators that evaluate how likely particular hands, such as AK, are to win against given ranges of hands. There is even a calculator that combines both features for some situations (this one) in SNGs. Using this math, AK is a clear fold.

The hand range calculations pretty much can't be argued with. ICM is an approximation and doesn't take everything into account. But, it is a lot better than picking things out of the air.

If you have any questions, look here. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/search.php?Cat=)

[microbet]

Well, I want to argue with Yugo about QQ (it is a fold), but I'm also thinking about Curtains well founded concern that people will overgeneralize and start making huge mistakes folding QQ.

I just want to submit, as a rule of thumb, that you need to be very very careful about making calls for all of your chips, on the bubble, when you have a decent stack, and there is another player who is not yet involved in the hand (has folded or is yet to act) who has a very small stack (both compared to you and the blinds).

I know that's not really short enough for a rule of thumb, but it's not really that hard of a concept. I'll try something more eloquent:

Only monsters call for all their chips when someone else's bubble is about to pop.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I want to argue with Yugo about QQ

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it? My gut says it's close...the math does too. Frankly I think it's player dependent.

FWIW, if I'm in the big stack here and you're sitting there with QQ then I'm almost certain you should call. I think it's close with QQ.

I don't have access to easty's thingy and I'm too lazy to do any more math...what range would the pusher have to be on to make QQ a call? I guess I was thinking this was a higher level STT than it really is....most pushing ranges won't be close to what mine is in the lower buyins.

Yugoslav

[microbet]

It has to be pretty wide. I'll check with the program later. I ran it before with [22+, A2+, K2+, Q9+] and QQ was a very clear fold.

I also looked at it from UTGs point of view and with the ranges I selected (very tight for button, very loose for SB, doesn't matter for BB) it was a push in the medium range, like T8o or so, but I don't think many will push that far, and I think QQ will still be a slight fold even if you assume UTG plays perfectly in accordance with ICM.

[The Yugoslavian]

Nevermind then, I'm sold. I was putting UTG on a bastardized top 40%ish of hands or so and it looked like a call so I figured it was either a close fold or close call depending on opponent....folding QQ sounds v good here now. Practically the problem is that if a couple details in the situation change I think a call with QQ is good....so I don't think calling with it can be that big of a mistake.

However, on a separate issue, I think there is possibly more FE vs. the SB for UTG than you may be thinking (even though there shouldn't be) and so UTG can push a v wide range profitably.

Anyway, my main point was to anzlyze the OP situation...which isn't close to being close...calling is like taking your lighter to your wallet.

Yugoslav

[oxymoron]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have access to easty's thingy

[/ QUOTE ]

The rumors are not true then?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't have access to easty's thingy

[/ QUOTE ]

The rumors are not true then?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm kickin' it in Oaktown on a different computer than I normally have. If I was here for a significant amount of time I'd ask Eastbay for another reg code or something to use the program on multiple computers maybe...I dunno. Hell, what I really should do is just meet up with him for a drink, but I'm booked solid from a couple of hours until I leave.

I always have wanted to meet Eastbay though. I'm pretty sure it'd go down likea this:

'Easty!!!! What up homey!!! You are the dope-diggity-bomb-doozy!'

'Umm....shut up...stop posting and mis-paraphrasing me and my exactitude geniusness. That's all I really wanted to say....nice meeting you, bye.'

Yugoslav

[KenProspero]

Just read through the thread

Understand and agree completely re folding AK here.

One question -- let me change the facts just a bit. Make Hero the SB here, and put the short stack in hero's place.

If short stack goes all-in (as he probably should with any two), does it then become an easy call for Hero?

[microbet]

I'll answer before using Eastbay's computer program (notice I don't say tool or thingy).

Easy push.

[KenProspero]

Thougt so.

My posting may have been a bit confusing, however.

I'm assuming (under the revised facts) that UTG made his same bet, so calling and pushing are the same thing.

[microbet]

Doesn't look the same to me because BB has more chips than short stack.

[KenProspero]

I'm probably confused here (and it won't be the first time).

Original scenario was:

SB (t460)
BB (t1020)
UTG (t4590)
Hero (t1930)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A.
UTG raises to t2000, 3 folds.

I'm changing it as follows:


BB (t1020)
UTG (t4590)
Dealer (t460)
Hero (SB) (t1930)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A.
UTG raises to t2000, Dealer calls all in.

Hero???

It'a obviously a very different situation, I think that call/push is the right move for Hero, here.

[curtains]

The point is that UTG should NOT be moving allin with any 2 here, when the SB will call such a large % of the time. Thus QQ's value is not that high unless UTG is much more aggressive than they shuold be here.

[microbet]

That is a different and more interesting situation. I was thinking the big stack was out of it and you were just against small stack. This situation is something like this (quickly done - approx stack - possible mistakes)

.28 - fold
.35 - beat big stack, lose to little stack
.2 - big stack wins
.4 - beat both
0 - little stack wins all, big stack beats you

Here the big stack will push a bigger range, since the little stack is out of the blinds. The little stack, being out of the blinds will have a pretty tight range, hoping someone busts out.

I think you will probably get about .35 or so out of calling, which would make it a very clear call.

I did some pretty sloppy work here, so feel free to bust me.

[curtains]

Im sure that calling when the small stack has already called is clearly correct. It shouldn't be even remotely close.