10-20: AA under pressure on the turn

[JTG51]

This hand is from a juicy 10-20 game. Most hands are rasied before the flop and called in multiple places by people with, well, with two cards.

UTG limps, folded to me in MP. I raise with A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif A /forums/images/icons/club.gif . Folded to the Button who calls. SB, BB, and UTG call. 5 of us see the flop for 2 bets each.

SB is a total unknown. UTG plays very loose preflop, but pretty well post flop. I've only been at the table with him for an hour, but have seen him semi-bluff several times. BB and Button are very loose, very poor players.

Flop: Q /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 9 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 5 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

Checked to me, I bet. Everyone calls.

Turn: [Q /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 9 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 5 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif] 5 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif

SB bets, BB calls. UTG raises.

What's my play? Any thoughts are appreciated.

[mikelow]

Fold ought to be considered. Three players have put chips in, including a raise. 97% chance of a five.

Sounds pessimistic. But consider this: with this lineup you
have to consider a five.

[Ulysses]

Based on your assessment of UTG, I'd 3-bet here and hope he picked up a flush draw to go with his queen. It sounds like the kind of game where any flush draws or queens will call two. Maybe even nines....

[Ulysses]

Three players have put chips in, including a raise. 97% chance of a five.

I disagree, Mike. You don't think SB or BB are more likely to go for a checkraise if they have a five?

UTG definitely could have a five, but based on the read he has on UTG, I think it's just as likely that he doesn't.

[Ed Miller]

Oof... I read that wrong the first time. Ummmm... that's a tough call (which is why I assume that you posted it). I think you have to fold here. SB and UTG have shown strength here. UTG could clearly have just picked up the flush draw, but he probably has quite a few outs to beat you even if you are ahead... and SB's bet looks like a 5 to me. I think you are drawing here, and you don't have outs to continue.

[JTG51]

Your thinking is pretty close to what mine was at the time. I don't like the idea of calling at all. I figured it was raise or fold time.

I think UTG could have a relatively wide range of hands here. Like you said, a flush draw to go with his Q, or even a flopped 2 pair (Q's and 9's) that he waited till the turn to raise.

I was actually more worried about the SB suddenly coming to life and leading into the field on the turn.

[JTG51]

"with this lineup you have to consider a five"

That is true. The BB in this hand (who just called SB's turn bet) could literally have any two cards at any time. I don't think he has a 5 here though. I didn't include it in my original post, but I think he would have raised SB's bet with a 5.

UTG also played loose enough to have a 5.

[JTG51]

I was just going to reply to your original post saying that I hated the idea of calling when you changed it. I agree that SB's bet looks like a 5, I'm glad I'm not the only one.

[PokerPrince]

Kindly ask the dealer if you can exchange your two aces for two queens. Then all is well.

PokerPrince

[Dancer]

"Discretion is the better part of valor"

[Manzanita]

JTG51,

There is no easy answer to your dilmena. I think that your overpair is too strong to fold given the size of the pot (11.5 big bets). If the SB or UTG have a 5 you are indeed in trouble, but there are other hands that these players could hold.

I think that there's a reasonable chance that the SB has a Q and bet the turn because he's afraid that it will get checked around. And based on your description of UTG he is just as likely to have a 5 as he is to be aggressively playing a draw or a Q (UTG may have raised hoping to get the hand heads-up and be planning on checking down the river if he fails to improve).

3-betting the turn is very tempting but what do you do if someone 4-bets (which UTG may do if he has a big draw like AhQh or the SB may do if he has a hand like A5s)? I would probably just call in this situation and fold if the SB 3-bets.

-- Manzanita

[cero_z]

I think you grit your teeth and call here, and wait and see how the action developes this round. Your assessment of UTG means you can't put him exactly on a hand, but he has a good one here regardless. He's loose enough pre-flop to have a five, but maybe good enough to make this play: he sees that the SB has picked up a flush draw, and thinks his hand (e.g.Q9, KQ)can beat everyone's except maybe yours (a good, tight? player), so he raises to move you out. This is what you hope for. He could also be value raising with 99 or 5, of course. So, if the other players back off after his raise, and the flush doesn't get there, your hand has a decent chance of being good. Remember, you're playing mostly weak opponents, your hand is pretty strong, and the pot is already large on 4th street. Good Luck.

[JTG51]

The board on the turn is: Q /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 9 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 5 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 5 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif .

The SB bet, BB called and UTG raised. It's my action.

I decided to 3 bet, and take a free show down if I could. I thought there was a pretty good chance that I was ahead of UTG. I also thought there was a decent chance that SB had a 5, and it was unlikely that I'd get 4 bet.

The button folded and the SB threw a monkey wrench in the plans by 4 betting. BB folded and UTG folded. I folded also. BB showed 99 for a flopped set and turned full house. It would have taken a few guesses for me to put him on that hand. UTG showed a 5 to his neighbor before he folded.

[mikelow]

So you had the 3rd best hand. At least you folded to the four-bet.

[JTG51]

"So you had the 3rd best hand."

I sure did. I was ahead before the flop though. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[Ulysses]

1) Is BB's fold the right play?
2) If SB has QQ, is 4-betting the right play?

[MHoydilla]

After getting 4 bet on the turn its obvious your behind but wouldnt call the last bet hoping to get your set on the river and folding if any card but ace. Just my $.02

[Lin Sherman]

I'd fold. When you figure your implied odds, you probably need at least a 20% chance of winning, and I don't think you have anywhere near that. SB may be a bad player, but that doesn't mean he can't have cards. He heard you raise before the flop and heard you bet the flop, and he's freely betting into you anyway. Then UTG, a reputedly good post-flop player who has also heard all these bets, is freely raising the SB who freely bet. Maybe one or the other is screwing around, but the chances that both have hands you can beat has to be pretty close to zero. The pot isn't anywhere near big enough for you to call hoping to catch an ace, so it looks from where I'm sitting that a fold is the percentage play.

Lin

[RollaJ]

call you are getting 18-1 + good implied odds if an ace hits the river, he will surely have you on a 5 not on pocket aces (may be ace-five) but that would still give you the action /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

[JTG51]

I'm defintely leaning towards agreeing with you. That's why I posted the hand. I don't necessarily think it's an easy decision, but I think I should have folded to the raise on the turn.

[JTG51]

Yes, and yes.

I think UTG (I assume you meant UTG, not BB) made a great fold. I don't know what his kicker was, but I'm guessing it wasn't great. By the time he had folded, SB had shown so much strength that he almost had to have a full house.

If I had QQ in SBs position, I'd definitely go to war on the turn. You just finished telling me on the small stakes forum that you see the raise the turn for a free showdown all the time. That was my plan here. If SB calls my 3 bet with QQ, tries to go for a check raise on the river and I check behind, it's a disaster. He's also got a good chance to collect 2 more bets from UTG by 4 betting the turn, as most players will call with a 5 there.

And he should be able to keep me in with a 4 bet also. Who ever 3 bets then folds to a 4 bet? /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[Manzanita]

JTG51,

I can't believe that the BB folded a full house. Is there a typo here (and it was the SB who actually had the nines full)?

-- Manzanita

[Ulysses]

I think UTG (I assume you meant UTG, not BB) made a great fold.
I meant BB. I think UTG has an easy fold against what surely looks like SBs full house. Even though it's 3 cold to him, BB has the tougher fold with the medium full house. But I guess the only thing he can beat is Q5s or 95s from the SB that called two cold, so in his position my action is purely dependent on whether or not SB would play those cards. In 10-20 (actually, 9-18) against an unknown player where I play, I may have to call here. Against many players, it is an easy, easy fold. Against others it is an easy raise...

If I had QQ in SBs position, I'd definitely go to war on the turn. You just finished telling me on the small stakes forum that you see the raise the turn for a free showdown all the time. That was my plan here.

I see the 3-bet the turn for a free showdown a lot less. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

If I'm SB I'm already counting the bet from you calling, that's a given. However, I think calling here is better. I think there are many holdings of BB and UTG here that fold to the 4-bet but call or even raise the 3-bet. I'd probably bet out on the river regardless.

[JTG51]

Sorry everyone. It was SB that showed 99 after everyone else folded. BB didn't show anything.

I should have realized I made a typo when Ulysses asked about BB's fold.

[JTG51]

Sorry for making you do all this extra typing Ulysses. it wasn't BB that had 99, that was a typo. SB had 99, for the winning hand.

Now, if BB did have 99, I think that would have been a terrible fold. This particular BB probablywouldn't have folded with a single 9 in his hand, nevermind a pair of them. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

Sorry for the confusion.

[Ulysses]

LOL. No worries. I think it's a much more interesting hand to analyze when BB has 99, bets out, and then is faced with SB's 4-bet!

It's also a pity BB and UTG didn't call, since then I think you have to toss in one more BB and catch your Ace on the river.

[JTG51]

[Matt D]

This is post mortem (I have read the results), but I have two points too make that I have not seen mentioned.

1) You said SB played very poorly. I am assuming he is also somewhat weak. Would he really be the turn after you have shown all that strength without a 5? Remember, he might not be smart enough to go for a checkraise. My experience says that weak players almost always have a 5 in this spot.

2) You said the UTG player played well post flop. If this is true, he has to have a 5. With any hand you beat he would have bet or checkraised the flop if he played well. IE checking flop with a Q is horrendous, not betting or check raising with Q9 is more horrendous. Furthermore, raising the turn with a hand that cannot possibly beat SB (flush draw, straight draw) is also very bad, as he must understand SB has something with which he will call all bets.

So, I think you had a fold and it wasn't close.
(From your descriptions of the players)

[JTG51]

Matt, thanks for the reply. I just want to clear one thing up. It wasn't the SB that I said was a terrible player, that was the BB. The SB was a total unknown. Also, the SB did bet the turn without a 5. He bet it with 9's full. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

That said, I think you are right. I should have folded. That's why I posted the hand. I wanted to see if I was a chicken, or if others thought I should have also.

[Matt D]

My bad, man. After reading all those replies, I got your information mixed up. I still think that if UTG plays well, he must have a 5. The key is whether or not he has check-called a pre-flop raiser with top pair on the flop in a multiway pot before. If you have never seen him do that, I would say he almost has to have a 5.

BTW Thanks for posting this hand. I enjoyed thinking about it. Also, remember that you are only getting about 3.5 to 1 on your 3 bet. You can fold the best hand here sometimes and still come out ahead.