simple for those with a brain

[aggie]

10-25 NL

from PL/NL forum

[ QUOTE ]
6-handed live game. Play has been pretty tight aggressive. I’ve been playing 45 minutes and probably have a slightly laggish image (I had not played with the villain before). I have not shown down a hand yet but have won several small pots. Villain is taggish and seems to be a very good player. I have 3.3K and villain has me covered

Aggressive player opens from the cutoff for $100. I call on the button with As8s….Villain reraises from BB to $400 (second time he’s made such a reraise from BB)…CO folds and I call. Flop, 9-8-7 rainbow. Villain leads out for $900….Villain has raised preflop many times and has always followed through on the flop. I felt like pre-flop raise from the big blind narrowed down villains possible holdings significantly. Hero moves all in….Worst play ever?

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Villian had KK....What percentage of the time does villian need to lay down his hand to make my bluff profitable. (hint: if he calls, i'm still 27% to beat him)

[LetYouDown]

I came up with him needing to fold 31.6% of the time, but I'm exhausted and my math is less than stellar at this point.

[aggie]

Thanks! They answered it on the other forum also...Here is the math for those interested:

from Matt Flynn
x = % of him folding.
if he folds you get $1800
if he calls, you win $3,800 27% of the time.
if he calls, you lose $2,900 73% of the time.


Break-even = $1800x+ (1-x)[3,800*(0.27) - $2,900(0.73)]
= $1800x + (1-x)[-1,091]
= 2891x - 1091
x = 1091/2891
x = 37% of the time.

[LetYouDown]

That looks right to me. I had about 5% faith in the number I came up with. I assume he called and you lost?

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
I assume he called and you lost?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup....but the more i think about it, i don't particularly hate my play...Especially for meta-game / image reasons.

[LetYouDown]

I don't hate it at all, especially against a tighter player. What was the timing on the all in? Did you go all in instantly or take your time and contemplate? My guess is that you pushed rather quickly. That's the only thing I wouldn't like about it. I'd take my sweet time and do an acting job like I'm dying for him to call.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
What was the timing on the all in? Did you go all in instantly or take your time and contemplate? My guess is that you pushed rather quickly. That's the only thing I wouldn't like about it. I'd take my sweet time and do an acting job like I'm dying for him to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I’m pretty conscious about putting my chips in the exact same way each time I make a big play these days (whether I have it or not). And I always think for at least a few seconds before I do it. I felt like I might have shown some nervousness when he asked “are there black chips in there?” So I definitely might have given something away, but I don’t think it had to do with the way I went all in.

[LetYouDown]

Then I don't really have a problem with it. I definitely show if I lose. The increase in table image isn't negligible.

[aggie]

When he called, I quickly tabled my hand and said “wow, I guess I’m beat”…I got a kick out or watching the faces of the others in the game when they realized I had almost nothing…

I agree my post flop play probably wasn’t bad….My preflop play was horrible! /images/graemlins/smile.gif