ANY Justification for this Play? Any?

[EasilyFound]

$11 SNG. I hadn't had a hand for a while or any oppty to steal and blinds were just eating me up (I'd have only 570 if I fold and be down to 470 after posting the SB in the next hand). Is there an +EV in pushing or should I have waited for the next hand or two and hope I get a chance to push?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t1665)
Button (t980)
SB (t870)
Hero (t770)
UTG (t2155)
MP (t1560)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t425</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t770 (All-In)</font>

[rickr]

Because of stack sizes, I would dump this and push in the next couple of hands. I would assume seeing as how he has pot commited himself, you have no FE. Any hand he would do this with you are a coinflip with AT BEST.

Later,
Rick

[Atropos]

I think it's a bad play: The SB already put in too much, you cant get him fold. So you have to rely on relative hand strength. However K3o is a very very weak hand: Even against random hands it only wins 51% of the time.

Which hand you would need to playback I dont know. Its obviously a mathematical problem, however the answer is not interesting at all and thus nobody cares...

Dont ask me, I dont understand it either.

[Jman28]

He's not gonna fold to the reraise, obviously. Stop-n-Go is better if you think he's stealing without hands.

Edit: I realize now that I'm an idiot.

[EasilyFound]

Actually, I find the mathematics of these kinds of plays very interesting. But, like you, it is hard for my brain to make these calcuations and use them to guide my play.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
He's not gonna fold to the reraise, obviously. Stop-n-Go is better if you think he's stealing without hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

How exactly do you plan on stopping and going OOP?

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's not gonna fold to the reraise, obviously. Stop-n-Go is better if you think he's stealing without hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

How exactly do you plan on stopping and going OOP?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a very good point. It's late for me.

[rickr]

It's not that the answer is uninteresting. It's just impossible to give an accurate answer. No reads are given. How has SB been playing? If you put SB on any 2, then according to Eastbay's tool this is a call. But if you give him any standards at all, K2o is a fold. You can't do a math problem if all information is not given. Even if it were, every situation is differant. Do you really expect this group to sit around and hand out EV push/fold calculations all day long?
Buy Eastbay's Tool. Play around with Eastbay's tool. It's worth it. (Man I feel so dirty. We have got to come up with a LESS VULGAR name for this thing).

Later,
Rick

[Atropos]

I already have Eastbays tool. As far as I know it does not support things like pushing against limpers / raisers. It only supports open-push + call all-in. If it did support this, I would never ask here. I only need the formula then I can write some small calculation prog myself for these situations.

And I dont want an accurate answer, thats never possible in Poker. But I think even without any reads its easy to narrow down SB's raising range to a degree that every mathematical result is not to far away from the correct move.

[rickr]

You are right, but (isn't there always a but) in this case, I myself, would consider this a push by small blind. So I would use the call settings. This guy is not folding, so you are calling a push. Does anyone disagree with this?

Later,
Rick

[Atropos]

Not really disagree but I think the solution would be more exact if we had a special formula for pushing against raisers.

You cant say with certainity that he will fold 0% of the time. The party fish are totally crazy, maybe 5% of the time a fold seems possible? Otherwise pushing ranges are not the same as "strange pot-comitting raise" ranges. In this case they are very similiar, in other cases surely not.

[EasilyFound]

[ QUOTE ]
You are right, but (isn't there always a but) in this case, I myself, would consider this a push by small blind. So I would use the call settings. This guy is not folding, so you are calling a push. Does anyone disagree with this?

Later,
Rick

[/ QUOTE ]

No. I agree. I did not expect him to fold. Would have been nice if he did, but I did not expect him to fold. I just felt like pushing since I hadn't seen any kind of hand in a long time. That thinking was foolish, but that is what I was thinking at the time.

[pooh74]

this should be an easy fold. Reads etc... are not going to help you when you only have K3...if you think he could do this with junk it COULD include K8 so "reads" wont help.

Against random hands you are 50%...you are only dominating a very few hands K2 Q3 etc...

You have close to zero fold equity.

Id say this is a highly -EV move. Id push any 2 from SB next hand if folded to me and maybe even with a limp from Button.

[zambonidrivr]

no, there is no justification. be the one that pushes, not the one that calls. k3o, are you kidding?

[Raiser]

Hey Easily,

I guess my answer would depend on when the blinds are going up again and how SB plays. Has he minraised before?

When the blinds go up, your fold equity will be gone if you fold this hand and can't steal before then. Of course I don't like pushing with K3 and no fold equity, but SB is getting desperate too and his small raise here could be a weak steal attempt.

[Atropos]

Either I'm lacking writing skills or you are lacking reading skills. I did not in any way try to justificate calling K3 here.

[meow_meow]

Honestly, I don't play that many SNGs anymore, but I like pushing here.

If you fold, you are down to 570. Next hand in the SB you've got chip leader in the BB, assuming you are lucky enough to get it checked around, he's going to be getting 2:1 on his call if you push. No luck in the SB? now you're down to less than 2.5xBB, soon to be 1.5xBB.....

I'd much rather take a (probably) 35% shot at doubling up to 1500 chips.

[EasilyFound]

Thanks to everyone who responded. I appreciate your input.

BTW, this was first hand at this blind level. SB had been playing a lot of hands, but not totally recklessly.