Should you use a small stack to gamble?

[Atropos]

Sometimes bad beats happen. Sometimes you have a very small stack like 300 chips in level 3/4.

Your Equity is very low then. The time you waste waiting for a good stealing spot could be used to start a new sit&go.

At what point should you use your small stack to gamble?

[Atropos]

Example:

Level 3, Button, 1 Limper
Your Stack: 200 Chips
Your Hand: 74s
Push?

[pokerlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
Example:

Level 3, Button, 1 Limper
Your Stack: 200 Chips
Your Hand: 74s
Push?

[/ QUOTE ]

my thinking is...why push there? I mean, maybe you will get a fold and win some chips, but if you get a call, you are screwed.

As you probably know, other players at the table know that a small stack akin to the one you are describing is in a somewhat desparate situation - and therefore, the quality of their hand is discounted by the players at the table.

I like to be patient w a small stack, wait for at least an ace or some kind of hand that is decent before pushing in the scenerio you described. Though pushing against the players you think will more likely fold is also a good decision.

[Atropos]

[ QUOTE ]

I like to be patient w a small stack,wait

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I'm getting at. If you have a small stack like 200 chips, your chance of winning the Sit&Go is very small. Thus your expected % of the prize pool is small as well.

Waiting takes time, so you are playing for a certain time without a big chance of getting paid. In the same time you could start a new Sit&Go with full Equity.

If you gamble and lose you can start a new one - if you gamble and win 1-2 times you are back in the game.
Only thing I want to know is when is the "sweetspot" the point when gambling becomes the logical +$EV exception though -Chip EV.

[swarm]

No you should not push 74...

Lots of people like limping pocket pairs and weaker aces at these levels. They won't call a push from medium or big stacks but your little mini 300 stack they will be happy to gamble it up against.

People give up to easily shortstacked. Yesterday alone I was down to 235, 300 and 500 chips in level 3 of a 50's SNG and came back and won. YOU MUST remain patient and wait for a pocket pair or over cards and push, you want to take a coin flip and double up if you can.

[Atropos]

Dont restate the obvious that has been said million times. Use numbers to make a point.

I see it this way: With a 200 stack ICM says I got around 2.8% of the prizepool. In a 33 Sit&Go thats 8$. If i gamble and lose I've lost 8$. If I gamble and win my Equity goes up to 7.22% of the prizepool --> 21.66$. Alone by this I have much more to gain than to lose.

Lets say I would have to wait 10 Minutes for a good hand while getting blinded down. So I would have to win 2 allins to get as many chips as I would if I gambled at that point and won. Let's say my good hands will hold up 60% of the time --> 0.60 * 0.60 * 8$ = 2.88$

Now I have not even included the chance that I get a good hand - good hands do not have to come.And I have not included the chance that everybody folds to my first push - still a possibility.

If my average Sit&Go lasts 35 minutes, and I had an ROI of 25%, I would gain around 2.88$ in 10 minutes too.

Problem: Nearly all my numbers are made up. I dont know how long my average Sit&Gos take, how high my ROI is, how high the chance of getting a good hand in the next 10 hands before getting blinded to death is, and how often they hold up against weaker calling hands. Thats why I asked my question and hoped someone with more experience could answer it.

[adanthar]

I'm not gonna do that math to prove it because, hey, I'm lazy, but it looks like this is one of your major leaks.

No, you shouldn't push any two in level 3, even when you only have 6-8 BB. Wait for a real hand. (Sometimes, when you're in the BB with two moronic limpers, that real hand can be A7o; experience will tell you when that is. But you do generally need a real hand.)

Yes, you do make more money this way than by giving up on your share of the prize pool with 30 minutes left to play.

[augie00]

Just wait for a good hand. Wait until you think you have a good chance to DOUBLE UP, and then push (rather than trying to steal the blinds).

When I was in Denmark I met a guy who was down to T20 in the first level of the stars $500k guarantee, and ended up finishing 7th.

Don't give up, and don't gamble.

[Atropos]

It's not a leak because nearly all of my posts are purely of theoretical nature. At the moment I wait and wait and wait, eventually get some lucky hands and comeback to win the tournament. However, it doesnt seem to be the best way to me.

I dont understand experience either. If I have a 200 stack on the button, 1 limper, level 3. Then there is 125 chips in the pot.

For simplicity assume that I will be called by either SB/BB/Limper, 2/all of them 50% of the time. --> 50% of the time I will not be called and win 125 chips. When I will be called (assuming I lose every time) I will lose 200 chips.

--> On average pushing would cost me 75 chips...

But I will not lose every time, I dont know how to do the right ICM calculations and I dont know how to take into account that I could start a new sit&go in the time I'm waiting.

If this is too much work to do or nobody is able to do it, then I'm fine with it. Eventually with more experience I will be able to do it myself, just hoped to get some help on the way.

[jalsing]

Are you 4 tabling or such? In these cases often times I'll just start up another tourney (since I only 1 or 2 table anyways) and play the short stack tourney as a 'bonus'..